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NFL DFS Week 1 Stacking Advice & Picks (2023 Fantasy Football)

It has been a long road, but the 2023 NFL season is finally here. With the start of the NFL season returning, so does the beautiful game of daily fantasy sports (DFS). In this article, we will be helping you identify specific stacks to help construct your roster in these DFS streets. Some stacks will be better for cash. Others will help you tackle a GPP and bring home the big money. Let’s start with our big stack with a bringback in a game with the best chance to explode for points!

NFL DFS Week 1 Stacking Advice & Strategy

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)/ Mike Williams (WR – LAC)/ Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

The Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Miami Dolphins is poised to be an explosive battle between two high-flying offensive schemes. Currently, Vegas has this game sitting at a 46.5 O/U, which we like to target (45-50+ games are always your targets). The Los Angeles Chargers have the fifth-fastest pace of play in 2022. Combine that pace with the aggressive play calling of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and we have a stack potential that could break the slate.

You should also target the Miami Dolphins’ defense all season. Last year, they allowed 19.6 fantasy points per game (FPPG) to quarterbacks, the second worst in the NFL. They also allowed the fifth most yards, tied for fourth most passing touchdowns, and even allowed the second most rushing yards to the quarterback position. Justin Herbert is healthy this year, so the cautious approach won’t be the game plan this week. Instead, expect the return of the gunslinger.

Now, we talk about Justin Herbert’s stacking option. You can use multiple players here. Gerald Everett is a sneaky underrated but expensive price at his position, as the Dolphins allowed the third most touchdowns to the tight end position. We know that Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler will also play their roles within the offense and can be used.

However, we are looking at Mike Williams for our lineup. His rostership numbers should be between 5-10%. With Jalen Ramsey out, Mike Williams has a chance to lineup in situations against Eli Apple and the other defensive backs outside of Xavier Howard due to the Chargers moving him around the offensive scheme. Mike Williams was used at 30% on the left outside, 26.7% on the left slot, 23% on the right outside, and 19 as the right slot. Williams is always boom-bust with his style of play, but the rewards outrank the risk here.

Finally, Tyreek Hill is our bringback. Tyreek Hill is the fastest man in the NFL and can change a game and a DFS slate in one play. He averaged 12.3 average depth of target (ADOT), had 502 yards after the catch in 2022, and had a 30.4 % target share last season. Hill was targeted on 31.8% of his routes in 2022 and is an absolute machine when playing on the road. Tyreek Hill scored 225 PPR points when on the road. Ignoring him for week one in this game environment would be foolish.

Geno Smith (QB – SEA)/ DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)

This combination of players is one of my favorite stacks for cash and, depending on rostership, possibly for GPP. The Seattle Seahawks are facing a Los Angeles Rams team that has taken the “Fruit Ninja” approach to their roster and sliced the overall salary cap for 2023. In week one, the Seahawks will be playing ” Guess Who” on the field with the Rams defensive starting 11. With Jaxon Smith-Njigba, at best, playing on a snap clock, DK Metcalf should continue his dominance over the Rams, especially without Jalen Ramsey. In his career, Metcalf averages 4.5 receptions, 65 yards and .5 touchdowns. That is an average of 14.5 FPPG.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)/ Christian Kirk (WR – JAC)

If you like to avoid the more rostered quarterbacks, move on to Trevor Lawrence, who is projecting at 5-10% rostership. Lawrence took off in the second half of 2022; from Week 9 on, Trevor Lawrence was Top-5 in expected points per dropback. Lawrence also began to cut down on his turnovers, leading to monster games. Pairing him with Christian Kirk can work for cash due to the safe floor and could allow you to pivot off a higher rostership total because most players will lean into the return of Calvin Ridley. The Indianapolis Colts’ defensive backroom has been decimated, and is a team we should target in 2023.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) OR Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)/ Commanders Defense

Proceed with caution; this game total is extremely low, and the Commanders’ defense is projecting a rostership percentage of 35-40%. The defense should be fine for cash, but for GPP, that makes it an automatic fade. The reason for picking the defense is simple: the Cardinals are in their “Trust The Process” phase, and hopefully, like emo, it stays a phase. However, for 2023, targeting the defense playing Arizona is a safe play for most weeks in cash.

As for Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, you must decide which game narrative you think will play out this Sunday. If you believe Washington will have a COMMANDING (see what I did there?) lead, your play is the grinder back in Brian Robinson, as he can fall in the endzone once or twice to catapult your lineups to victory.

However, if you believe the game stays closer than most think and the Washington Commanders have to battle throughout the game, the running back you want to play is Antonio Gibson (especially on a full PPR site). Gibson is the more explosive back who should commandeer the passing game downs with J.D. McKissic out of town. The Arizona Cardinals defense allowed the most receiving touchdowns to running backs last season. They also allowed the third-most receiving yards and third-most receptions to the position in 2022. These stats combined push the Arizona defense into the top three for most FPPG allowed to the running back position. Gibson’s explosive nature, plus the game script, can lead to total domination in DFS for Week One.

Good luck in week one. Remember, if you need help to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros and reach out to me on Twitter(X) at @jpep20.