This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
The NFL is back, and we kicked it off with an upset Thursday night with the Lions beating the defending champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. What a great way to start off the season…unless you’re a Chiefs fan, of course.
Week 1 in DFS is very hard to predict. Teams look completely different than they did last season. A lot of players have changed teams; some have rookies stepping into prominent roles, and some have new coaches and schemes. Because of this, I didn’t use a ton of analytical data to make my picks this week but did so more of my gut and intuition on what I think is going to happen.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
The NFL is back, and we kicked it off with an upset Thursday night with the Lions beating the defending champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. What a great way to start off the season…unless you’re a Chiefs fan, of course.
Week 1 in DFS is very hard to predict. Teams look completely different than they did last season. A lot of players have changed teams; some have rookies stepping into prominent roles, and some have new coaches and schemes. Because of this, I didn’t use a ton of analytical data to make my picks this week but did so more of my gut and intuition on what I think is going to happen.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 1 (2023 Fantasy Football)
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Sam Howell (WAS) — $4,900 vs. ARI
Howell is the only cheap value QB I like on DraftKings, but he may end up in my cash lineup because I like him that much. He gets to play a home game against a Cardinals team that many picked to be the worst team in the league. And, for the first time in years, he will play that home game in front of a sold-out crowd in Washington.
With a new owner in town, the Washington area has a buzz around it, and that energy could translate to the play on the field. Howell has a good supporting cast and is stackable with either of his starting wide receivers. His price tag of $4,900 is just too cheap.
Fanduel
Anthony Richardson (IND) — $6,700 vs. JAC
Richardson’s value is tied to his legs. He is a risky value but he has huge upside if the Colts unleash him in the running game. He isn’t a quarterback that you’re going to want to stack, but running him naked with a ton of stud players around him could end up being a winning strategy.
Others I like: Jordan Love (GB) $6,400
Running Backs
DraftKings
Javonte Williams (DEN) — $5,700 vs LV
I you watch my show, the Armchair Fantasy Show, you will already know my love for Javonte Williams this year. There was some concern that he could be limited early in the season, but Sean Payon came out and said that Williams will have a “huge role” in Week 1. Payton has always involved his running backs in the passing game and I expect Williams to see 5-plus targets in this one.
Others I like: Jamaal Williams (NO) $5,100 | Brian Robinson (WAS) $5,100
Fanduel
Raheem Mostert (MIA) — $5,900 @ LAC
Chargers gave up the highest yards per carry last season at 5.4, and Mostert should get all the work he can handle in Week 1. This game has the highest total on the main slate, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Mostert to score, and his big play ability and speed mean he can score from anywhere on the field. Obviously, health is always the biggest concern with Mostert, but as long as he’s healthy, cheap, and in a good offense, he’s worth a flyer.
Others I like: Deon Jackson (IND) $5,600 | Khalil Herbert (CHI) $6,100
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Jahan Dotson (WAS) — $5,000 vs. ARI
There is a good chance that Terry McLaurin will either miss this game or be limited, which would thrust Dotson into the No. 1 role. Coming off a good rookie season, Dotson is primed for a breakout season and it should start in Week 1 against a weak secondary. His $5,000 price tag is way too cheap for a receiver who could end up the team leader in targets for this game.
Others I like: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) $4,900 | Zay Flowers (BAL) $4,000
Fanduel
Courtland Sutton (DEN) — $5,900 vs. LV
I’m going to assume Jerry Jeudy is out, even though I’ve seen reports that he may play, leaving Sutton the unquestioned No. 1 WR in this offense. It has been a while since we’ve seen Sutton be fantasy-relevant, but if you look back to 2022, you will see Sutton had five straight games with seven or more targets to start the season — including three games with double-digits. If Jeudy is out and that Sutton shows up in Week 1, he will be a steal at his price tag.
Others I like: Treylon Burks (TEN) $5,700 | George Pickens (PIT) $5,800
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Luke Musgrave (GB) — $2,900 @ CHI
I don’t typically like playing rookie tight ends, but Musgrave has looked the part so far this offseason and could step into a huge workload with Jordan Love under center. His price point makes him worth the risk as he doesn’t need to do much to hit value at a mere $2,900.
Others I like: Cole Turner (WAS) $2,500 (if Logan Thomas is OUT) | Kylen Granson (IND) $2,900
Fanduel
Irv Smith (CIN) — $4,900 @ CLE
I just can’t quit this guy. I’ve been rooting for his breakout since his rookie season. Unfortunately, injuries have hindered his career and he will likely never reach his potential in the NFL or season-long fantasy. This is DFS, however, and we only need him to show up for one week, and this could be the week. The Browns’ defense will be trying to slow down Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, leaving ISJ in the middle of the field with plenty of space to work with. Injuries aside, he is an athletic freak that may benefit from a fresh start.
Others I like: Trey McBride (WAS) $4,700
Defense
DraftKings
Washington Commanders $2,800 vs. ARI
The Commanders will be the chalk defense this week, and rightfully so. The Cardinals have essentially told the world they are tanking without telling the world they are tanking. They traded for career backup Joshua Dobbs just a few short weeks ago and it looks like he will get the start.
Others I like: Carolina Panthers $2,600 @ ATL
Fanduel
Arizona Cardinals $3,700 @ WAS
It’s within the realm of possibility that Sam Howell is terrible. We’ve only seen him play one professional game in the NFL, Week 18 last year, and while the Cardinals aren’t expected to be good, their players still have pride. It’s a bit of a narrative street, but one that wouldn’t surprise me if Howell goes out and throws three INTs.
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I’ll be here every week this season, right on through the Super Bowl. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @GeoffLambert77.