The spread is enormous for this week’s Thursday Night Football game. The host 49ers should smash the Giants. One way to add some excitement to what could be a blowout is successfully navigating the showdown slate and winning some big bucks. This piece will analyze the best allocation of resources in a probable blowout.
Game: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -10.0
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants have a putrid implied total of 17.25 points. So, while it might seem crazy to fade a dual-threat quarterback who's likely to air it out a ton, Daniel Jones isn't a must-use player. In fact, he's not even a suggested pick because things could get ugly like they did against Dallas's stout defense in Week 1.
Instead, the most appealing exposure to the G-Men is through their pass-catching weapons. The 49ers have been stingy against tight ends this year. Nevertheless, Darren Waller is the highest-ceiling pass-catcher for the Giants. Additionally, he's essentially a jumbo wideout.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Waller has played 67 passing snaps and run 62 routes, aligning inline for 21 of those snaps, 17 wide and 28 in the slot. Waller alleviated any short-term concerns about his hamstring in Week 2. He played 90% of New York's offensive snaps last week, led the team in routes (39) and had a 21.6% target share, six receptions and 76 receiving yards.
Since Waller is basically a wideout, he might have a better matchup than meets the eye. According to The 33rd Team, the 49ers have allowed the 15th-most DraftKings points per game (14.8) to perimeter wideouts and the third-most (31.6) to slot wide receivers. San Francisco has also allowed the 14th-most FanDuel points per game (10.8) to perimeter receivers and the sixth-most (22.1) to slot receivers.
Darius Slayton ran the most routes (36) among New York's wideouts in Week 2 and kicked into the slot for 12 routes. The routes and moonlighting in the slot make Slayton intriguing on the heels of catching three passes for 62 scoreless yards.
Parris Campbell hasn't been efficient this year. Nonetheless, he ran 28 routes from the slot on 33 passing snaps last week. Since San Francisco's been flamed by slot wide receivers, Campbell could provide DFS gamers with value this week.
Jalin Hyatt ran only 12 routes last week but made the most of them, corraling both of his targets for 89 yards. Per PFF, the speedy wideout was on the perimeter for seven snaps, in the slot for five and had an eye-popping 37.5-yard average depth of target. Hyatt's big-play ability is eye-catching, and the Giants might need to get creative to inject juice into their offense without Saquon Barkley, which theoretically could include designing some looks and touches for Hyatt.
The Giants could get boat raced by the 49ers, similar to their disastrous Week 1 showing. And if that's the case, spending the minimum amount of cap space on one required Giant is appealing.
Sterling Shepard is the cheapest useful player for the Giants at DK. Shepard ran nine routes in Week 1 and seven in Week 2.
Could Campbell's inefficiency land Shepard more opportunities? Could Shepard be more spry and earn more chances with another week of recovery from last year's torn ACL? The answer to both questions is probably no. Yet, on a showdown slate, a trip down the narrative street and speculating can be the difference between a minor cash and a finish near the top of a GPP.
If Shepard is inactive for a likely returning Wan'Dale Robinson, the second-year wideout has the same cases for inclusion in DFS lineups as Shepard and becomes the cheapest viable option from the G-Men.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is playing out of his mind this year. He leads the NFL in rushing attempts (42) and rushing yards per game (134.0), eclipsing 100 yards on the ground in both contests. CMC has also added 3.0 receptions per game, 18.0 receiving yards per game and two rushing touchdowns. He's a matchup-proof, game-script-proof monster who didn't come off the field for the offense last week, playing 100% of San Francisco's offensive snaps. He's a no-brainer pick.
Circling back to CMC's snap share, he'll likely cede some snaps this week to Elijah Mitchell, especially if the 49ers blow the doors off the Giants.
According to Rotoviz's pace app, the 49ers have rushed on 59% of their 61 snaps when leading by at least eight points this year. There can be plenty of meat on the bone for Mitchell to deliver value on his tiny salary if he's used as a change-of-pace early and soaks up all of the closing work in a blowout win.
Brock Purdy is quarterbacking a team with an implied total of 27.25 points. If the 49ers live up to the expectations that accompany the implied total, Purdy can eat along with CMC. Purdy has been superb as San Francisco's top signal-caller. In 10 the games in his career when he's played at least 80% of the offensive snaps, Purdy has completed 183 of 274 passes (66.8%) for 2,280 yards (228.0 per game), 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Purdy tossed multiple touchdowns in eight of those games.
Two of San Francisco's Big Three pass-catching weapons are healthy, with Brandon Aiyuk the odd man out.
Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are the healthy studs in San Francisco's passing attack. They could soak up a few of Aiyuk's targets if Aiyuk is inactive or limited by his injury. Samuel has 16 targets, 11 receptions and 118 receiving yards this year. However, his receiving work is only part of the story, as Kyle Shanahan is using him as a "wide back" again, feeding him seven rushes for 46 yards and a touchdown in 2023.
Kittle hasn't made much noise this year, hauling in only six receptions for 49 scoreless yards on nine targets. Still, Kittle has eruption potential and was on the same page as Purdy inside the 10-yard line last year. From Week 13 (when Purdy relieved Jimmy Garoppolo) through Week 18, Kittle's four targets and three receiving touchdowns inside the 10-yard line were the most on the 49ers.
San Francisco's defense is elite and should have chances to pin their ears back against the Giants in obvious passing situations. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.5) and are tied for sixth in turnovers forced (four), tied for 11th in sacks (six) and third in pressure rate (30.6%).
Ray-Ray McCloud is a galaxy-brain stacking option with San Francisco's defense with contingency value as a bit player in San Francisco's offense. McCoud is the club's kick and punt returner. Although he's never scored a return touchdown, doing so would count for him and San Francisco's defense.
Additionally, he's run exactly one route each week and could sneak onto the field to spell Aiyuk if Aiyuk's shoulders bother him. Finally, in 2022, McCloud chipped in 14 receptions, 243 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, four rushes, 78 rushing yards and one touchdown. Thus, Shanahan is willing to use him on offense as a versatile playmaker.
Final Thoughts: CMC is the top choice for Captain/MVP. He should be used in that spot for gamers entering only one showdown lineup. Furthermore, it's not crazy to use him as the Captain/MVP on 90% of rosters for gamers entering multiple lineups. Purdy and Samuel are also intriguing pivots in case the TD-variance gods smile upon them instead of CMC.
Finally, onslaught lineups featuring only one Giant are my favorite lineup construction by a wide margin.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
