The Eagles were last year’s NFC representative in the Super Bowl, and the Vikings were bounced in the Wild Card Round after enjoying remarkable success in one-score games. Many deemed Their excellent season a fluke because the underlying data was unremarkable, and they opened this year losing a one-score game against the Buccaneers.
The Eagles enter this week with a win after winning a close game against the Patriots in New England. They are understandably favorites at home this week, reflected in the suggested players for this showdown contest.
The Eagles were last year’s NFC representative in the Super Bowl, and the Vikings were bounced in the Wild Card Round after enjoying remarkable success in one-score games. Many deemed Their excellent season a fluke because the underlying data was unremarkable, and they opened this year losing a one-score game against the Buccaneers.
The Eagles enter this week with a win after winning a close game against the Patriots in New England. They are understandably favorites at home this week, reflected in the suggested players for this showdown contest.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles DFS Advice
Spread: PHI -6.5
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Vikings Analysis: Kirk Cousins is notably absent from the table. He was much worse on the road last year than at home. In addition, Cousins had a brutal game against the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 2 last season. Can he play better this time? Sure. Still, getting exposure to Minnesota's passing attack through his pass-catching weapons is more appealing.
Justin Jefferson had a huge showing in Week 1, securing nine receptions for 150 receiving yards. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jefferson was targeted on 23.4% of his routes in the opener. He's elite, and Philadelphia's secondary was far from flawless against New England's lackluster wideouts. So, Jefferson is an excellent pick at his high salary on a star-studded slate. However, he's not a must-use player on every roster.
T.J. Hockenson is arguably the most exciting piece of the Vikings, salary considered. The pass-catching tight end was targeted on 22.2% of his routes in Week 1. In addition, Hockenson's been targeted on 23.3% of his routes since joining the Vikings via a trade last year.
The matchup is decent for him tonight, too. According to The 33rd Team, since Week 1 of last year, Philadelphia has allowed the 16th-most DraftKings points per game (11.9) and the 18th-most FanDuel points per game (9.4) to tight ends. It's a middle-of-the-pack matchup at a glance. However, after losing integral pieces at linebacker and safety in free agency, Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki torched the Eagles for eight receptions and 92 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. So, it could be an excellent matchup for Hockenson.
K.J. Osborn is a DK-only suggestion as a cheap piece from the Vikings. He ran the second-most routes (44) on the club last week, 13 more than rookie Jordan Addison. More importantly, Osborn played 46.7% of his passing snaps in the slot, and Addison was in the slot for 34.4% of his snaps. Since last year, the Eagles have allowed the fifth-fewest DK points per game (10.5) and the sixth-fewest FD points per game (8.4) to perimeter wideouts versus surrendering 20.0 DK points per game and 15.6 FD points per game to slot wideouts.
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat triggerman in Philadelphia's high-octane offense. The Patriots made the sledding tough for Hurts last week. However, Minnesota's defense is much less imposing.
Hurts had a superb breakout campaign last year, averaging 246.7 passing yards per game, 50.7 rushing yards per game and scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground while passing for 22. Hurts has the highest ceiling on the slate and is a no-brainer pick.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are elite talents. Thankfully, both players can provide DFS value because Philadelphia's offense is highly concentrated.
Smith paced the team in routes (37) last week, but Brown ran only two fewer. They had an identical 10 targets, too. Brown had the most receiving yards (79) for the Eagles in the opener on seven receptions. Still, Smith had seven receptions for 47 yards and the team's only receiving touchdown. Minnesota's secondary is lousy against wide receivers. Thus, Brown and Smith should feast.
Quez Watkins is a DK-only pick. Additionally, he's only interesting from a structural perspective when Hurts is used as the Captain/MVP. Watkins had a non-descript game in Week 1, catching both targets for 17 receiving yards. However, his 29 routes were the fourth-most on the team.
Kenneth Gainwell was Philadelphia's primary running back last week. He handled 14 of 16 carries by the running backs and led the position in routes (16). Sadly, he was injured. Gainwell is ruled out for tonight's game, leaving an open question about how the backfield opportunities will be distributed.
D'Andre Swift ran 13 routes, had two targets, one reception, zero receiving yards and one rush for three yards in Week 1. Head coach Nick Sirianni said in a press conference on Wednesday that "we don't ever want to come out with him only having those many touches," referring to Swift's two touches.
Presumably, Swift will get the most action in Philadelphia's backfield tonight. However, actions speak louder than words, and Swift had only two touches last week. Boston Scott also had two touches (one carry for three yards and one reception for seven yards). Still, Swift played 19 offensive snaps versus only eight for Scott.
Again, Swift should be considered the favorite for the most offensive opportunities in Philadelphia's backfield. Although, Rashaad Penny could throw his hat in the ring after he was inactive last week. Gamers probably shouldn't read too much into Scott being active and Penny being a healthy inactive last week. Per PFF, Scott played 15 snaps on special teams, Swift played zero snaps on special teams and Penny hasn't played special teams snaps since working on kickoff returns for the Seahawks in Week 2 of 2019.
If the Eagles plan to rotate their running backs based on matchups, Penny could handle some early-down and goalline work, with Swift handling a mix of early-down opportunities and passing-down snaps. It's unclear how the Eagles will use their running backs this week. Moreover, if the Eagles use Penny and Swift in distinctly different roles, gamers can use them together on DFS teams. Finally, if gamers guess correctly and one gets the lion's share of the work, they'll likely provide immense excess DFS value relative to their salary.
Final Thoughts: Hurts is the top Captain/MVP selection tonight. Brown and Smith are also sweet picks for that spot. Jefferson's upside is tailor-made for use as a Captain/MVP. However, I'm fully fading Jefferson as the Captain/MVP.
Additionally, I expect the Eagles to handle their business at home tonight convincingly. So, unbalanced lineups tilting toward the Eagles are my preferred lineup construction. In fact, onslaught lineups with only one member of the Vikings are alluring.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
