NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Primer: Week 1 (Lions vs. Chiefs)

The ascending Lions open their year in Kansas City against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The game’s total suggests it will shoot out. Can the Lions keep up with Kansas City’s superhuman quarterback? This piece will look at the most desirable options from each team for the showdown slate and provide insight into the best captain/MVP choices and how to construct the best lineups.

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Game: Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: KC -4.5

Over/Under: 52.5 Points

Lions Analysis: The Lions table is light on options. Still, Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best wideouts in the NFL and an excellent selection on this showdown slate. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Sun God was targeted on a whopping 28.8% of his routes last season. ARSB parlayed his hefty workload into 6.6 receptions per game, 72.6 receiving yards per game and six touchdowns.

The young wideout is a monster after the catch and was peppered with high-percentage throws, sporting a 6.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) last year, per PFF. However, ARSB wants to add vertical usage to his repertoire this year. Jared Goff might have additional time to get the ball to St. Brown deep since Chris Jones is holding out, and things are trending toward the superstar missing Week 1's contest.

While the wrinkle would be a nifty addition to St. Brown's profile, he should feast from the slot against the Chiefs this week. According to PFF, ARSB was in the slot for approximately 60% of his snaps on passing plays last season. And per The 33rd Team, the Chiefs allowed the eighth-most DraftKings and the 10th-most FanDuel points per game to slot wideouts last season.

The Chiefs were also an average to above-average matchup for tight ends in 2022. They coughed up the 16th-most DK and the 13th-most FD points per game to the position. Sam LaPorta is positioned atop Detroit's depth chart after the team selected him early in the second round of this year's NFL Draft. LaPorta was highly productive at Iowa and has elite athletic testing numbers. It might not be smooth sailing immediately, but he should have a prominent role in Detroit's passing attack, and his salary doesn't require a massive showing in his debut to be valuable on DFS squads.

Kalif Raymond is a rotational wideout. Yet, he has big-play ability and should see ample playing time in Detroit's lackluster wide receiver group. According to PFF, Raymond had six receptions on 11 targets 20-plus yards downfield for 210 yards last season and hauled in six receptions on 10 targets for 106 receiving yards from 10 to 19 yards downfield. Raymond was targeted on a solid-if-unspectacular 19.3% of his routes last year and had a stellar 1.91 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR). He's an unexciting choice at FD. However, Raymond's tiny salary at DK helps jam in an extra stud.

Goff is listed on the table. But he's only listed to use as a flex on teams that use ARSB in the Captain/MVP spot. Goff has played substantially better at home and indoors in two seasons on the Lions. But if St. Brown hits as the best Captain/MVP, he'll likely need to score some touchdowns on the receiving end of Goff's passes, making Goff a smart flex option from a structural standpoint.

Jahmyr Gibbs initially didn't make the cut before an injury that could potentially sideline a forthcoming stud. If that not-so-mystery superstar is out, the Lions could keep things closer, and gamers will have more cap space to splurge on an explosive playmaker like Gibbs.

Gibbs was a do-it-all running back for Alabama last year. According to PFF, in 12 games in Gibbs's final college season, he had 926 rushing yards (77.2 per game), 6.1 yards per carry, 3.39 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A), seven rushing touchdowns, 52 targets (21.2% targets per route run), 44 receptions (3.7 per game), 444 receiving yards (37.0 per game), 10.1 yards per reception, 1.81 Y/RR and three receiving touchdowns.

Finally, the Chiefs are a dreamy matchup for Gibbs's pass-catching prowess. Kansas City yielded the second-most targets (135), the most receptions (112), the fourth-most receiving yards (806) and four receiving touchdowns to running backs in 2022.

Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is the defending NFL MVP after an incredible 2022 campaign. He led the NFL in passing yards per game (308.8) and touchdown passes (42). The top quarterback in the sport can carve up even elite defenses, and the Lions allowed the third-most passing yards per game (245.8) and tied for the eighth-most touchdown passes allowed (26) last season. Detroit has added new personnel to help improve their defense. Nevertheless, Mahomes should smash them.

Travis Kelce is the alpha pass-catcher in Kansas City's offense. Including the postseason, Kelce commanded a target on 25.9% of his routes last season. In the regular season, Kelce averaged 6.5 receptions per game, 78.7 receiving yards per game and scored 12 touchdowns. Kelce is a matchup-proof stud and the only locked-in weapon in Kansas City's passing attack.

Sadly, he's the not-so-mystery player teased in Gibbs's write-up. Kelce hyperextended his knee in Tuesday's practice and has a bone bruise, casting doubt on his availability this week. He's a no-question pick on the showdown slate if he suits up. If Kelce is out, Noah Gray becomes a no-brainer chalk choice at DK and a useful option at FD, albeit less of a no-brainer pick since the salary relief is less valuable at FD.

It's a little murky in the wide receiver room. Still, Brett Veach shared an encouraging quote that indicates Skyy Moore should be a regular on the field.

Moore was quiet in his rookie season, learning every wideout role in Andy Reid's complex offense. The Lions overhauled their secondary. So, their numbers in 2022 can improve significantly this year. However, they ceded the most DK and FD points per game to slot wideouts last year. If rookie nickel defender Brian Branch doesn't hit the ground running, Moore can pick them apart when he aligns in the slot.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran the second-most routes for the Chiefs last year. He is a volatile, lid-lifting, low-volume field-stretcher. MVS had a 15.1-yard aDOT and 26 targets 20-plus yards downfield last season. His use in Kansas City's offense leaves him susceptible to a dud. However, he only needs one deep ball from the rocket-armed Mahomes to connect to help DFS squads.

Justyn Ross and Justin Watson are intriguing punts, depending on how Kansas City's gameday inactives shake out. Watson was one of the NFL's cardio kings last year, getting plenty of steps in while running routes without garnering targets.

The big-bodied, speedy wideout made the most of his 15 receptions though, averaging 21.0 yards per reception and scoring two touchdowns. Watson was a shot-play specialist, earning more targets 20-plus yards downfield (14) than behind the line of scrimmage (one), between zero and nine yards downfield (seven) or 10 to 19 yards downfield (13). Moreover, he secured 14 of his 27 targets that traveled at least 10 yards.

Ross was undrafted last year and missed the entire year with an injury. He's kept working and made the roster after flashing his potential in training camp and the preseason. Ross had six receptions for 59 yards and two touchdowns in the preseason. Most encouraging, he was targeted on both routes he ran when sharing the field with Mahomes and Kelce in the team's second preseason contest.

Veach mentioned Ross as a "package player" in the linked post above, and that package could involve taking advantage of Ross's size in the red zone.

Kansas City's backfield might be a three-headed committee, making Isiah Pacheco's salary unpalatable. Instead, Jerick McKinnon is the most alluring choice.

McKinnon is the team's passing-down back and is trusted in scoring territory. McKinnon's 28 opportunities (15 rushes and 13 targets) inside the 15-yard line last year were the most among the team's running backs and resulted in six touchdowns from that area of the field. Including the postseason, McKinnon averaged 17.5 rushing yards per game, 3.0 receptions per game, 27.3 receiving yards per game and scored 10 touchdowns in 20 games.

Final Thoughts: Mahomes is the best option as the Captain/MVP, followed by Kelce (again, if he suits up) and ARSB. Gamers who enter multiple lineups in GPPs can mix in ARSB as the Captain/MVP and should, as was mentioned above, use Goff in a flex spot on those teams.

It will likely be popular to build unbalanced lineups tilting toward the Chiefs. Nonetheless, it's my preferred roster construction. Finally, building onslaught lineups with only one player from the Lions is enticing and might be less utilized if Kelce is out.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.