The Dolphins and Patriots are playing in the bright lights of primetime on Sunday night in an AFC East battle. The teams are vastly different offensively, with Miami force-feeding their studs and New England spreading the ball around. This primer will examine how to fit the pieces together and suggest the best options for Captain/MVP and ideal lineup constructions.
Game: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Spread: MIA -3.0
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: The marriage between Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel began with a 20-7 victory against the Patriots in Miami in Week 1 last year. The Dolphins attempted 33 passes and 21 rushes by non-quarterbacks in that game. Tagovailoa completed 23 of 33 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown. It was a promising start, and he's largely balled out as McDaniel's triggerman.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in the 13 contests in which Tagovailoa has played more than 70% of Miami's snaps since last year, he's completed 279 of 431 passes (64.7%) for 3,904 yards (300.3 per game), 28 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 23 Big-Time Throws and eight Turnover-Worthy Plays. The fourth-year quarterback's success in McDaniel's offense makes him an excellent selection for this showdown slate.
Tagovailoa and McDaniel have pumped targets to the talented one-two punch of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. However, this isn't a 1A and 1B situation. Instead, the former has been the No. 1, and the latter has been a productive No. 2. The following table shows stats from the 13 contests when Tagovailoa played at least 70% of the offensive snaps.
As the numbers illustrate, it's justifiable that Hill has a higher salary and projection than Waddle at both DFS outlets. In addition, Hill flamed the Patriots for eight receptions, 94 receiving yards and six rushing yards on 12 targets and one rush in Week 1 last season. Comparatively, Waddle had five targets, four receptions, 69 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown and eight rushing yards. Hill is the must-use player from the Dolphins, and Waddle can occasionally be faded on certain lineup constructions.
There's not much room for ancillary options in Miami's offense. Still, Durham Smythe and Braxton Berrios are somewhat intriguing at their low salaries. Smythe led the Dolphins in routes (42) last week and had six targets, three receptions and 44 receiving yards.
Berrios ran 29 routes and had five targets, three receptions and 42 receiving yards, easily clearing River Cracraft's participation (15 routes). In 12 games when Tagovailoa played over 70% of Miami's snaps last year, their previous No. 3 wideout, Trent Sherfield, had 32 targets, 22 receptions, 321 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Those marks were the third-highest or tied for the third-highest in the case of touchdowns on the Dolphins. It's not a massive role, but it's OK on this showdown slate.
Patriots Analysis: Rhamondre Stevenson was outstanding last year. However, that's essentially the only thing gamers should take from last year's Patriots. They took the offensive coordinator role unseriously and faceplanted. New England was much better in their opener this year, with Bill O'Brien competently filling the position.
Stevenson remained perched atop New England's depth chart, playing 73% of the team's offensive snaps versus 35% for Ezekiel Elliott. Stevenson also ran 34 routes compared to 17 for Zeke. As a result, the third-year running back handled 12 of 19 rushing opportunities by running backs and had 25 rushing yards, six targets, six receptions and 64 receiving yards. Stevenson is a game-script running back and should find more running room this week against a defense that was torched for 208 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, four receptions and 47 receiving yards by the combination of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley.
Mac Jones is also a stellar option, rebounding out of the gate from a lost year of development in New England's farcical 2022 offense. According to the Rotoviz pace tool, the Patriots ran 36 plays in a neutral game script last week and passed at a 64% clip. Jones carved up the Eagles for 316 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception on 54 attempts. And while the Chargers steamrolled the Dolphins on the ground in Week 1, it wasn't as if they put the clamps on Justin Herbert and the passing attack. So, Jones is a valuable choice on this slate.
Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry were the stars in the pass-catching corps last week. Bourne led the Patriots in routes (54) and targets (11) while tying for the team lead in receptions (six) and receiving yards (64). He also splashed paydirt twice.
Henry ran 42 routes and had six targets, five receptions, 56 receiving yards and a touchdown. After drawing rave camp reviews, the veteran tight end was a critical part of the passing attack. Both should remain integral pieces of the passing attack this week.
However, DeVante Parker could siphon targets if he's healthy enough to play after last week's absence. Parker popped up for a few impressive showings last year as a boom-or-bust vertical option. According to PFF, Parker was targeted on an underwhelming 14.9% of his routes but had a useful 1.71 Y/RR. The physical field-stretching wideout had a 16.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Parker had over 60 receiving yards in five of nine games when he was healthy enough to run at least 25 routes. Sadly, he had fewer than 25 yards in the other four games he ran at least 25 routes.
Mike Gesicki and Demario Douglas are the other useful options from the Patriots. Both players had part-time roles last week. The Patriots didn't even pretend Gesicki was a tight end. Instead, he played zero of his 25 passing snaps aligned inline. Gesicki was in the slot on 22 of those snaps and wide for three. He had three receptions for 36 receiving yards on three targets.
Douglas ran 27 routes and had seven targets, four receptions and 40 receiving yards. The diminutive sixth-round pick's 25.9% targets per route run rate was eye-catching. Meanwhile, Kayshon Boutte was a cardio king, recording zero receptions on 43 routes and four targets. Boutte will likely see the most dramatic shift in playing time if Parker is back this week.
Final Thoughts: Hill is my favorite Captain/MVP option and the only player from either team I'll have 100% exposure to. Tagovailoa, Stevenson and Jones are also intriguing picks for Captain/MVP.
Additionally, many lineup construction options are appealing. Balanced lineups are fine for gamers entering only one lineup. Yet unbalanced lineups tilting in either Miami's or New England's direction are enticing. Finally, even onslaught lineups for Miami with Tagovailoa in the Captain/MVP spot or for New England with Stevenson or Jones in the Captain/MVP role are intriguing.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
