The Sunday Night Football Showdown contest is a battle between NFC East rivals. There’s an intriguing mix of high-end talent to pick from. However, the decided lack of punts will lead to tough cuts and challenging decisions.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Spread: DAL -3.5
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: Tony Pollard is the highest-salaried option from the Cowboys in a cushy matchup. However, he's worth every penny. The dynamic running back set new career highs across the board in a breakout 2022 campaign. Pollard also eradicated any misplaced concerns about his efficient play suffering if he took on an expanded role.
Pollard excelled in the 10 contests (including one playoff game) he exceeded 50% of Dallas's offensive snaps last year. He averaged 69 rushing yards in those games and had a median of 76. Pollard also scored eight touchdowns and averaged 3.3 receptions and 30.3 receiving yards per game in those games.
Furthermore, in the two games Pollard had at least a 65% snap shape last year (an attainable threshold this year with a lack of competition for playing time behind him), he had 198 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, eight targets, five receptions and 39 receiving yards.
Pollard should erupt in a cupcake matchup on the ground. According to The 33rd Team, Big Blue allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game (118.8) and 5.2 yards per attempt to running backs last season.
CeeDee Lamb is another tantalizing pick from the Cowboys. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Dallas's No. 1 wideout was targeted on 24.5% of his routes and had 90 receptions, 1,164 receiving yards, 2.34 Y/RR and eight touchdowns in 14 games played with Dak Prescott last season.
Lamb shined in both games against the Giants last year. He had eight receptions for 87 yards and one touchdown in the first contest. In the second matchup, Lamb had six receptions, 106 receiving yards, two rushes and 11 rushing yards.
Gamers shouldn't feel compelled to jam Prescott into all their rosters. Instead, he's a good option to cut on many lineup constructions. However, Prescott is a must-use option at flex when Lamb is used as the Captain/MVP. Dallas's quarterback is also a nifty flex under another circumstance -- more on that to come in the final thoughts.
Jake Ferguson is the other desirable skill-position player from the Cowboys. Prescott peppered departed tight end Dalton Schultz with targets in recent years, including last season. In the 14 games Prescott and Schultz played together last year, Schultz was targeted on 22.3% of his routes and had 67 receptions, 681 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
The Cowboys changed offensive coordinators, parting ways with Kellen Moore and replacing him with Brian Schottenheimer. Additionally, head coach Mike McCarthy is calling the plays this season. So, they might not feature Ferguson as often in the passing attack. But Ferguson could inherit a substantial role if Schultz's hefty workload was a product of Prescott's comfort with utilizing a tight end. Ferguson was also efficient in a limited role last year, amassing 13 receptions for 148 yards, 2.06 Y/RR and one touchdown on just 72 routes when playing with Prescott last year.
Giants Analysis: It's remarkable what a difference competent coaching can make. Daniel Jones made a leap last year under the guidance of head coach Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. Moreover, they trusted him more as the season wore on.
According to Rotoviz's pace tool, the Giants had a 49% pass rate in neutral game scripts in Week 1 through Week 8 before climbing to a 54% pass rate from Week 9 through New York's loss in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. As a result, Jones's passing yardage jumped to 224.3 yards per game from Week 9 through the end of the season.
Jones can also beat teams up on the ground, and the Giants use him as a designed runner. The dual-threat quarterback averaged 45 rushing yards per game and scored seven touchdowns in 2022. Jones's combo of passing and running ability makes him a high-floor and high-ceiling pick.
Darren Waller projects to be New York's new No. 1 passing-game weapon. Unfortunately, the pass-catching tight end popped up on the injury report on Friday, ending up listed as questionable with a hamstring injury that relegated him to a limited participant that day. Waller's status must be monitored. Still, his participation, albeit limited, on Friday was encouraging for his potential to play this week.
He should be busy if he can suit up. Waller and Jones played in just one preseason game, and Waller was fed.
Perhaps, more importantly, Waller was still productive when healthy last year. When excluding the game Waller was injured after only eight offensive snaps against the Chiefs in Week 5, he averaged 3.5 receptions per game, 48.5 receiving yards per game, scored three touchdowns and recorded 1.62 Y/RR.
Isaiah Hodgins is another stellar piece from the Giants. He and Jones clicked last year after he was added during the regular season. In the team's final seven games of last year, Hodgins averaged 4.9 receptions per game, 51.1 receiving yards per game and had five touchdown receptions.
Jalin Hyatt is unlikely to play a full-time role in Week 1. Fortunately, his field-stretching speed can allow him to help DFS squads in even a limited downfield rotational role. Hyatt had five receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown on seven targets and 28 routes in the preseason.
Hyatt's line would have been more impressive if Tyrod Taylor had hit him when he was wide open after barbecuing Sauce Gardner.
It's also noteworthy how the Giants deployed Hyatt in the preseason. According to PFF, Hyatt aligned in the slot for 87.3% of his passing snaps in 2022 at Tennessee. The Giants used him in the slot for only five of his 32 passing snaps in the preseason, aligning him wide for 27 of those snaps. Since the Giants appear willing to use him inside and outside, Hyatt can rotate in for any of New York's wideouts.
Saquon Barkley has the highest salary on the Giants and a massive ceiling after a bounceback 2022 campaign. Barkley was used as a bell-cow running back, averaging 17.4 rush attempts per game and 4.7 targets per game. He averaged 102.3 scrimmage yards per game, 3.6 receptions per game and scored 12 touchdowns in 18 games.
Barkley faces more competition for targets this year, though. And the Giants are slight underdogs, which could impact his usage if they're in a negative game script. Thus, Barkley doesn't need to be locked into every showdown lineup, and I have him ranked behind Jones.
Final Thoughts: There are a handful of viable Captain/MVP options in this game. Namely, I have them ranked Pollard, Jones, Lamb and Barkley for the Captain/MVP spot.
Above, I teased a second scenario for using Prescott in a flex spot. When using Barkley in the Captain/MVP, it makes sense to use Prescott in the flex since a positive game script for the Giants would be a negative game script for the Cowboys, creating a positive correlation between the Giants feeding Barkley as a runner and the Cowboys chucking the pigskin while playing catch-up.
Finally, balanced lineups are my favorite this NFC East battle. Yet, since the game has a small spread and both teams have intriguing options, balanced lineups will likely be popular. So, mixing unbalanced lineups tilted toward each team is also enticing in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
