Week 1 is in the books, and it’s time for another season of DFS pricing exploitation! For newcomers to this article, welcome! This is a space where we’ll take an early look at the upcoming weekend’s slate to try and get a leg up on the competition by finding potential pricing mistakes. These could be for any number of reasons, but the savvy player is always looking to maximize value, as every dollar is precious in DFS. Let’s get to it, and follow me on Twitter @jac3600!

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 2

QUARTERBACK

Geno Smith (QB – SEA) ($5900) @DET

This stands out as a pretty egregious pricing error for Geno Smith. Sure, he put up a tremendous statistical dud against the Rams in Week 1, but there weren’t any significant red flags with his play. Geno now gets a supreme bounce-back spot in a domed Detroit environment, and the Lions allowed the most FPPG to the QB position a season ago. Even if Tyler Lockett (concussion) sits, Geno has many outs to pay off his price tag.

Jordan Love (QB – GB) ($5500) @ATL

There is no reason for Jordan Love’s price to be stuck in the mid-5k range after he came out of Soldier Field with a hyper-efficient win over the Bears. Love completed important passes all game and did it without top wideout Christian Watson (who we hope comes back this week). The matchup is in a friendly game environment, and Atlanta has been in the bottom five in sack rate for consecutive seasons.

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery (RB – DET) ($5800) vs SEA

As a firm Jahmyr Gibbs-denier in the preseason, I’m taking that sentiment into DFS week two and calling Montgomery the better play again (at a cheaper price tag). Montgomery had a 71% snap share to Gibbs’ 29% in Week 1. Even though the coaches have indicated that was the plan, I still don’t see this as more of a 60-40 split in the early going. Gibbs was explosive but clearly struggled in pass protection and was given no RZ touches. Montgomery, on the other hand, grinded his way to a full workload. The matchup is perfect for him this week against the Seahawks, who got gouged in the red zone for three rushing TDs in week one. They also allowed the third most FPPG to opposing RBs last season.

Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) ($5300) @ CIN

Unfortunately, J.K. Dobbins‘ hard luck continues as he’ll be forced to miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. This likely puts Gus Edwards in the immediate driver’s seat for the lead role, and his price does not reflect this. Gus Bus is no stranger to injuries himself, but he’s also averaged over five YPC over the past four seasons. Justice Hill will steal work, and it’s possible Melvin Gordon will get elevated from the practice squad, but Gus is the player you want in the short term. Cincinnati just allowed 6.7 YPC on the ground to the Browns.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) ($7100) @TEN

It’s hard to tab a price tag over 7k as “exploitable,” but it bears mentioning that Keenan Allen’s price actually DROPPED after last week, and there’s really no reason for it. Allen easily led the team in targets with nine and averaged a robust 12.7 YPR. The Chargers’ rushing attack did the legwork against Miami in Week 1, but this matchup with Tennessee is a completely different one. The Titans allowed by far the most FPPG to opposing WRs last year and are projected near the bottom again. Their rush defense remains stout, so Herbert and company could soar in this one. Allen is worth every penny.

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) ($4900) @DEN

Jahan Dotson was one of my preseason darlings (I wasn’t the only one), but the production didn’t carry over to week one as much as we’d hoped. I remain optimistic, and his price tag has dropped to under 5k, which is super encouraging for DFS. Despite a pedestrian stat line, Dotson received seven targets, which was in line with his preseason projections. The matchup on paper is tough against Denver, but Terry McLaurin is almost certainly going to get the Patrick Surtain coverage, leaving Dotson to face the rest of the secondary that allowed Jakobi Meyers to score twice in Week 1.

TIGHT END

Adam Trautman (TE – DEN) ($3000) vs WAS

With Greg Dulcich expected to miss multiple weeks, this is an easy one at 3k. Adam Trautman actually led the Broncos in receptions in Week 1 (even with Dulcich playing), and Russell Wilson has leaned on TEs in the past. Washington is tougher in the middle of the field than on the perimeter, but this is way too cheap a price tag for the expected role. Cheap TEs in DFS are wonderful 🙂