The 0-2 Bengals host the surprisingly sharp 1-1 Rams for the second Monday Night Football doubleheader game. A notable injury will significantly impact this showdown slate and was considered when selecting the following suggested players.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -2.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Rams Analysis: Matthew Stafford is slinging the pigskin precisely, and Sean McVay is letting him air it out. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Rams have passed on 58% of their 109 plays in a neutral game script. Cincinnati's pass rush is unlikely to compel McVay to mix things up. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bengals have the fourth-lowest pressure rate (13.5%) this season.
Stafford can carve them up from a clean pocket. Among quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks against pressure this year, Staford is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) third-ranked passer when kept clean, completing 47 of 64 passes for 528 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
When Stafford's taken to the air this year, he's peppered rookie Puka Nacua with targets. In fact, Nacua has the highest target share (39.3%) in the NFL. He's converted his eye-popping target share into 25 receptions for 266 receiving yards. Nacua has also rushed twice for four yards.
Tutu Atwell's breakout has been overshadowed. Nevertheless, he's playing well. The diminutive speedster has a 19.1% target share, 13 receptions, 196 receiving yards, one rush and five rushing yards.
Nacua and Atwell have an advantageous matchup based on their deployment, too. According to The 33rd Team, the Bengals have allowed the 13th-most DraftKings (22.5) and the 12th-most FanDuel (17.5) points per game to slot wide receivers. Meanwhile, they credited Nacua with aligning in the slot 63.3% of the time in Week 1 and 61.2% in Week 2, and Atwell was in the slot 67.2% of the time in Week 1 and 71.6% in Week 2.
Kyren Williams is an excellent choice from the Rams, too. He's emerged as the club's workhorse back, tallying a 95% snap share in Week 2. The snaps haven't been empty, either. Williams has toted the rock 29 times and earned 12 targets. Sure, his 104 rushing yards at 3.6 yards per carry wasn't impressive. Nevertheless, the second-year pro's volume is elite, and he has 154 scrimmage yards, six receptions and four touchdowns. Williams is trusted in the red zone, accounting for five rushes and one target inside the 10-yard line, converting the opportunities into three rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown.
Williams might be busy again against the Bengals, and it's a tasty matchup. First, according to RotoViz's pace app, Cincinnati's first two opponents, albeit the run-first Browns (in lousy weather, to boot) and run-first Ravens, attempted a run on 51% of their 122 plays in a neutral game script. Second, running backs have gashed the Bengals for 122.5 rushing yards per game, 3.5 receptions per game, 16.5 receiving yards per game and one rushing touchdown.
Bengals Analysis:
Joe Burrow is the elephant in the room. He hurt his calf in the offseason, and he's struggled mightily to open the season. It would be easy to chalk up the slow start to rust. Unfortunately, Burrow aggravated the injury last week and might have an ankle injury, too. There are conflicting reports about the probability of Burrow suiting up and the severity of his injury, and there's a risk of re-injury if he plays. Still, many gamers will roll the dice on the Burrow if he suits up, but I suggest fading him.
Ja'Marr Chase is the highest-ceiling option in Cincinnati's passing attack and a better stylistic fit for the matchup than Tee Higgins. According to PFF, Chase has a 7.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT), and Higgins has a 14.3-yard aDOT this year. The Rams have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete only two of eight passes that traveled at least 20 yards for 59 scoreless yards and have an above-average pass rush.
Tyler Boyd can't match Chase's ceiling, but the slot wideout's 5.3-yard aDOT is also a good matchup fit. He could also soak up some of the targets vacated by tight end Irv Smith, who's listed as doubtful. Smith's backups at tight end aren't target earners, and they're inefficient. Thus, they're a trap. Investing in Boyd is more appealing.
Sadly, the matchup is below average for Chase and Boyd. The Rams have allowed the 13th-fewest DK (12.4) and 12th-fewest FD (10.2) points per game to perimeter wideouts. In addition, they've allowed the ninth-fewest DK (13.9) and the 11th-fewest FD (10.2) points per game to slot wide receivers. Regardless, the Bengals have passed on 62% of their 61 plays in a neutral game script. So, Chase and Boyd should have opportunities if Burrow plays and Cincinnati doesn't entirely abandon their offensive identity. Gamers shouldn't waste the requisite salary on Chase if Burrow is out.
It would make sense for the Bengals to tone down their pass rate some. Joe Mixon and the matchup could allow them to do so without stalling on offense. Mixon has rushed 26 times for 115 rushing yards and chipped in seven receptions for 53 receiving yards this season.
Running backs have succeeded against the Rams, averaging 97.5 rushing yards per game (5.3 yards per carry), 4.0 receptions per game, 18.0 receiving yards per game and scoring one rushing touchdown. Mixon's underlying data is rock-solid if unspectacular, and he's Cincinnati's unquestioned lead running back. He's the most appealing option from the Bengals, Burrow's health considered.
Final Thoughts: There are a few intriguing options for Captain/MVP. Yet, I'd rank them Nacua, Stafford, Mixon (if Burrow plays), Williams and Atwell.
Lineups slightly tilted toward the Rams are my favorites if Burrow is active. If Burrow is out, Mixon, Boyd and Evan McPherson are the only options I'll use from the Bengals as one-offs in onslaught lineups. Finally, it's a rare occasion when I'll use both kickers on the same lineup at DK to open up the cap space needed for the studs from each team, creating top-heavy lineups.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
