The Steelers had one of the most embarrassing performances in Week 1 at home. They’ll attempt to rebound against the 1-0 Browns. The hosts are underdogs and missing integral players on both sides of the ball. So, they’ll have their work cut out for them, reflected in the disparity between suggested players from each club.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: CLE -2.5
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Browns Analysis: Nick Chubb is among the NFL's most talented runners. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Chubb had their third-highest rushing grade and was tied for eighth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.48 YCO/A), second in missed tackles forced (83), first in runs of 10-plus yards (47), first in rushes of 15-plus yards (23) and fourth in their Elusiveness metric among running backs with at least 75 attempts in 2022. Chubb was also third in rushing yards per game (89.7) and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (12).
The Browns will likely feed him the rock in a plus matchup. According to The 33rd Team, Pittsburgh has allowed 94.3 rushing yards per game at 4.4 yards per carry to running backs since last season. Additionally, Christian McCaffrey wrecked them in Week 1, rumbling for 152 yards and one touchdown.
Chubb can also score points through the air. He ran 12 routes and had four targets, four receptions and 21 receiving yards in Week 1. Chubb also ran 29 routes and had five targets, five receptions, 45 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Steelers in Week 18 last season.
If the game script is good for Chubb, it's also ideal for Cleveland's defense. So, there is a correlation when using Chubb and Cleveland's defense together. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Browns had the ninth-highest pressure rate (29.4%) last week. Conversely, Pittsburgh was PFF's lowest-graded pass-blocking team. Thus, Cleveland's defense can pile up sacks, especially if the Steelers are in predictable passing situations.
Deshaun Watson and some of his pass-catchers are also stellar picks from the Browns. Simply, Watson hasn't been sharp since returning from his suspension. The offseason reports weren't glowing, and he was shaky last week, albeit in wretched playing conditions that also hampered the performance of Joe Burrow.
It's not outrageous to fade Watson on some rosters when gamers enter multiple lineups. Nevertheless, Watson can still rush and had one of his best passing performances against the Steelers last year, passing for 230 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 29 attempts in Week 18. He also rushed for 44 yards on six attempts.
Amari Cooper aggravated a groin injury late in the week, casting doubt on his availability. Cooper has lousy road splits. So, even if he suits up at less than 100%, Cooper isn't an enticing option. Cooper's absence would vacate targets for the other options in Cleveland's passing attack, though.
Elijah Moore is Cleveland's most exciting pass-catcher. He was tied for the team lead in routes (28) last week and played 18 aligned in the slot and 10 out wide. Moore was also tied for the team lead in targets (seven) and had three receptions for a team-high 43 receiving yards in Week 1. In addition, Moore carried the ball twice for 19 yards.
Moore's usage is excellent for his outlook this week. However, the matchup is also tantalizing. According to The 33rd Team, since last season, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (21.7) and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game (17.1) to slot wide receivers.
David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones are also viable picks. Njoku had five targets, four receptions, 42 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Steelers in the season finale last year. He was third in routes (24) and had two receptions for 24 yards in last week's wet conditions. Sadly, Njoku's production was lackluster in five games with Watson in 2022. He had 27 targets, 17 receptions, 164 receptions and two touchdowns in those contests.
DPJ was tied for the team lead in routes (28) last week. Yet, he had just one reception for 12 yards on two targets. However, Peoples-Jones was second on the Browns in targets (33), receptions (19) and receiving yards (246) and had two touchdown receptions in Watson's six starts in 2022. DPJ also has big-play potential, owning a 13.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in Watson's starts last year. So, DPJ can produce big plays when Watson keeps plays alive with his legs or takes shots deep.
Marquise Goodwin is also a big-play threat. He ran eight routes and had two targets for a 43.0-yard aDOT in Week 1. The veteran speedster could see the biggest uptick in use and fantasy utility if Cooper is out.
Steelers Analysis: It might be another long day at home for the Steelers. They scored only seven points against the 49ers last week, and the Browns held the Bengals to just three. Kenny Pickett completed 31 of 46 pass attempts last week for 232 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He was also sacked five times.
If there's a silver lining, Pickett was relatively good against pressure last year. Pickett was PFF's third-highest-ranked passer among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks under pressure in 2022. Still, Pickett was rough against the Browns in his lone start against them in 2022, completing just 13 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. As a result, Pickett isn't a must-use player.
George Pickens might seem like an outstanding pick in the wake of Diontae Johnson's injury. However, it's unlikely he'll be force-fed easy targets. According to PFF, Pickens had one target behind the line of scrimmage, 29 short (zero to nine yards), 24 medium (10 to 19 yards) and 30 deep (20-plus yards) as a rookie. Pickens can make highlight-reel catches. Sadly, getting the job done on low-percentage deep balls is challenging, especially when Pittsburgh's offensive line is unlikely to give Pickett adequate time to launch deep passes accurately.
Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin are more desirable picks from Pittsburgh's wide receiving corps. A-Rob paced Pittsburgh in targets (eight) and receiving yards (64) last week and tied for the team-high in receptions (five). He appeared to be washed up last year but showed signs of life last week, making the most of his move into the slot. Robinson played 40 of 48 passing snaps aligned in the slot last week.
Austin is small, but he's not a slot wideout. He played only four of 29 passing snaps in the slot last week. The second-year pro should be the direct replacement for Johnson. He secured all six of his targets for 37 receiving yards last week. Don't be fooled by Austin's underwhelming yards per reception last week. He has electrifying measurables and put them to use on the gridiron at Memphis.
Jaylen Warren is egregiously mispriced at DK. The second-year running back had a 40% snap share in Week 1 and could soak up some of the eight percent of snaps vacated by an injured Anthony McFarland. At a glance, Warren's three rushes for six yards in Week 1 were unimpressive. Yet, his rush attempts represented 33.3% of the backfield's carries. Warren was also targeted on a blistering 33.3% of his 18 routes and had five receptions for 12 yards. Therefore, Warren's role is robust relative to his salary at DK.
Final Thoughts: Chubb is the top Captain/MVP pick by a wide margin. However, Watson, Moore and Pickett are also defensible selections for that spot. Finally, unbalanced lineups tilting toward the Browns are the most desirable constructions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
