The Bills and Jets put a bow on Week 1 on Monday Night Football. The Jets are the darlings of the offseason, and the Bills will attempt to throw cold water on their optimism. Both teams have star-level quarterbacks, supremely talented No. 1 wideouts and top-shelf defenses. They also have intriguing ancillary pieces who will allow gamers to spend a significant chunk of the salary cap on the superstars.
Game: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Spread: BUF -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Bills Analysis: Buffalo's offense ran through Josh Allen last season. According to the nfelo app, the Bills were third in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Additionally, per the Rotoviz pace app, Buffalo had a 61% pass rate and 39% rush rate in neutral game scripts.
The pass-happy offense allowed Allen to rank sixth in passing yards per game (267.7) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (35) last season. Allen had some miscues and was shaky for a stretch after hurting his UCL against the Jets in Week 9. His performance was notably better when cherry-picking a bit and throwing out the three games immediately following Allen's elbow injury. In the other 15 contests, Allen was third in Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) passing grade, averaged 274.5 passing yards per game and tossed 34 touchdowns.
Allen is also a weapon on the ground. He averaged 44.9 rushing yards per game and scored eight rushing touchdowns in 18 games. Allen will likely have to use his legs to evade New York's talented defense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets were tied for seventh in sacks (45) and third in pressure rate (25.4%) last season. Fortunately, Allen is a monster on scrambles, averaging a blistering 9.4 yards per scramble last year. The matchup is a nightmare, but Allen's dual-threat ability makes him the highest-ceiling player on the slate while also elevating his floor.
Stefon Diggs is Buffalo's other stud on offense. Among wideouts targeted at least 50 times last season, Diggs was fifth in PFF receiving grade and tied for seventh in Yards per Route Run (2.40 Y/RR).
Like Allen, Diggs has a challenging matchup. Per The 33rd Team, the Jets allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game (8.4 PPG) and the second-fewest FanDuel points per game (6.7) to perimeter wideouts last year. They also held slot wideouts to the second-fewest DK PPG (16.1) and the second-fewest FD PPG (12.5).
The Bills wisely moved Diggs around the alignment against the Jets last year to get the most out of him. Per PFF, in two games against the Jets last year, Diggs had 15 targets, eight receptions, 130 receiving yards, 1.97 Y/RR and zero touchdowns, aligning in the slot for 45.1% of his passing snaps and wide for 54.9%.
James Cook is the most intriguing non-star on this showdown slate. The Bills didn't put too much on his plate last year but gradually used him more toward the end of the year. In Cook's limited time, he showed juice. Among 69 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts last year, Cook was tied for sixth in yards per attempt (5.3) and second in Breakaway percentage (44.1% of his yards came on designed runs that were 15-plus yards).
Cook's calling card entering the NFL was his receiving prowess. The Bills never completely unleashed him. Still, Cook was targeted on an excellent 22.3% of his routes and had a 2.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Only eight of Cook's 30 targets were behind the line of scrimmage, 21 were zero to nine yards downfield, and four were 10 to 19 yards downfield.
The matchup is mediocre for Cook on the ground but stellar through the air. The Jets allowed 96.5 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per attempt and seven rushing touchdowns to running backs last season. However, they coughed up 5.0 receptions per game, 37.1 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs. Allen and Damien Harris threaten Cook's work near the end zone, but the second-year running back's receiving chops and big-play ability make him a compelling pick.
Buffalo's one-two punch at tight end has a decent matchup. The Jets allowed the eighth-most DK and FD points per game to tight ends inline and the 14th-most DK and FD points per game to them in the slot.
Dalton Kincaid is the team's new shiny toy after they selected him in the first round of this year's NFL Draft. However, he's essentially a jumbo slot. So, Dawson Knox, who profiles to play more of the inline snaps, should have a path of less resistance than his new teammate.
However, if Kincaid is genuinely more of a slot wideout than a tight end, perhaps New York's DK and FD points allowed per game to slot wideouts are more applicable. While the Jets were tough on slot wideouts, they still yielded more points to them than to tight ends. Since Kincaid and Knox are ostensibly playing different positions despite having the same positional designation, it's entirely reasonable to use them on the same showdown roster.
Deonte Harty was used as Buffalo's No. 3 wide receiver in the preseason.
The speedy diminutive wideout's 2022 season was basically a washout because of turf toe. Harty was highly efficient in 2021, though. Among 90 wide receivers targeted at least 50 times in 2021, Harty was seventh in PFF's receiving grade and sixth in Yards per Route Run (2.69 Y/RR). The speedster played the slot (41.1%) and wide (55.8%) for the Saints. The Bills used him in the slot for 80.5% of his passing snaps and aligned him in the slot at a 19.5% clip in the preseason.
Harty will cede some playing time to Kincaid in the slot. However, Harty is egregiously mispriced at DK and a no-brainer pick at the minimum salary.
Jets Analysis: New York's defense is justifiably getting a lot of love. However, Buffalo's defense isn't a pushover for Aaron Rodgers and Co. The Jets will also likely use a less fantasy-friendly offense than the Bills.
In Rodgers's final season on the Packers, Green Bay was 18th in PROE and had the second-slowest pace in neutral game scripts. The Packers also passed just 56% of the time in neutral game scripts. New York's pricey acquisition of Dalvin Cook and the presence of a seemingly recovered and healthy Breece Hall indicate the Jets intend to lean on the run. Sadly, it might not be only a two-headed committee while Cook and Hall are eased into action, rendering both unexciting picks on this slate.
The most exciting option from the Jets is their stud second-year wideout. Garrett Wilson was outstanding last year. He was ninth in PFF receiving grade and tied for 25th in Yards per Route Run (1.85 Y/RR) among wideouts targeted at least 50 times.
Wilson also did his best work without Zach Wilson quarterbacking the Jets. In eight games without him, the rookie wideout had 85 targets (26.4% targets per route run), 49 receptions (6.1 per game), 656 receiving yards (82 per game), 2.04 Y/RR and four touchdowns.
Wilson will benefit the most from Rodgers leading Gang Green's offense. Rodgers knows how to force-feed a stud wideout, evidenced by peppering Davante Adams with targets during back-to-back MVP campaigns in 2020-2021. The matchup is also good for Wilson. The Bills allowed the fifth-most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wideouts last year, and Wilson was aligned wide on all of his preseason passing snaps and 62.6% of them last season.
Circling back to Rodgers, he's a must-use option in the flex on teams with Wilson in the Captain/MVP spot. He and Wilson can also be stacked in flex spots.
Still, even though Rodgers is only a year removed from his back-to-back MVP seasons, he's not without risk. Rodgers had his lowest Quarterback Rating (91.1) as a starter in 2022. He's also 39 years old, an age at which quarterbacks have rarely performed at a high level. Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer and an outlier. So, if anyone can continue to defy Father Time, Rodgers is a good bet. As a result, Rodgers is the second-best pick from the Jets.
Randall Cobb and Mecole Hardman, in that order, are the other viable skill-position players from the Jets. Cobb is trusted by Rodgers. The Athletic's Zack Rosenblatt also listed him as the club's No. 3 wideout.
Cobb is primarily a slot and has a mid-pack matchup. Last year, the Bills allowed the 14th-most DK and the 15th-most FD points per game to slot wide receivers. Cobb also demonstrated he had something left in the tank. He was 42nd in PFF receiving grade and 38th in Yards per Route Run (1.67 Y/RR) out of 92 wide receivers targeted at least 45 times last year. Cobb was targeted on 19.3% of his routes. Comparatively, Allen Lazard was targeted on 20% of his routes and had fewer Yards per Route Run (1.61 Y/RR) than Cobb.
Hardman is largely a gadget wideout with elite speed. Last year, he averaged 3.1 receptions per game and 37.1 receiving yards per game for the Chiefs. Hardman also chipped in 3.9 rushing yards per game and scored six touchdowns in eight games.
He's been more of a theoretical big-play threat than an actual home-run weapon, and Nathaniel Hackett isn't in the same class of offensive schemer and play-caller as Andy Reid. Nevertheless, Hardman should get a handful of opportunities, making him an acceptable punt at DK.
Final Thoughts: Allen is the top pick for the Captain/MVP spot. Yet, Wilson and Diggs are also worthy choices for the spot. Allen and Wilson will be on 100% of my Showdown rosters, with Diggs and Rodgers occasionally failing to make the cut.
My favorite roster construction is unbalanced and tilting toward the Bills since they're favored, have a more fantasy-friendly offense and offer more mid-tier-salaried options.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
