The cream is starting to rise to the top, and Week 4 provides DFS gamers and football fans with a highly-anticipated matchup in the 1:00 p.m. ET window of contests. That’s not the only game with explosive scoring potential, though. This week’s NFL DFS Digest reduces the suggested players to a manageable number, providing players in obvious smash spots and contrarian picks suitable for GPPs, too.
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Week 4 Matchups
Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -3.0
Over/Under: 54.0 Points
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins hung 70 points on the Broncos last week. Their offense is humming, effectively using the pass and run. According to RotoViz's pace app, Miami has passed on 58% of their 118 plays in a neutral game script and run on 42% of them. The Dolphins' neutral-script tendencies align nicely with how teams are attacking the Bills in a neutral game script. Buffalo's opponents have run 77 plays in a neutral game script, passing on 57% of them and running at a 43% clip.
So, Tua Tagovailoa is a desirable pick in DFS this week. Among quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this year, Tagovailoa is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) first-ranked passer and tied for first in Big-Time-Throw percentage (7.7 BTT%). Tagovailoa is also second in passing yards per game (341.3), second in passing touchdowns (eight) and first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (10.68 ANY/A), per Pro-Football-Reference.
Additionally, Mike McDaniel is trusting the lefty quarterback in scoring territory. Tagovailoa is tied for first in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line (14) and has five passing touchdowns on those attempts. Buffalo's pass rush is fierce. Nevertheless, PFF ranks Miami first in pass blocking this season.
Tyreek Hill is the top dog in the passing attack. He's first in air yards (480) and second in target share (34.7%) this season. Hill is also first in Yards per Route Run (4.74 Y/RR) among wide receivers with at least 15 targets.
The elite underlying data is producing results. Hill is first in touchdown receptions (four), second in receiving yards per game (137.3) and tied for fourth in receptions per game (8.3). Thus, Hill is projected as the WR1 at DK and FD.
Jaylen Waddle was in the concussion protocol and missed last week's offensive outburst. He's returned to practice and appears to be on track to play this week. Miami's speedy No. 2 wideout is 18th in receiving yards per game (82.0) and averaging 4.0 receptions per game at a scintillating 20.5 yards per reception in 2023.
While Miami's passing attack is elite, their running game stole the show last week. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane form an explosive backfield duo. Mostert has superb underlying and surface stats this year. The speedy veteran is third in yards before contact per attempt (4.7 YBCON/ATT) among running backs with at least 10 attempts this year. He also has five rush attempts inside the 10-yard line and four touchdowns on them. Moster is third in PFF's Elusiveness metric among RBs with at least 15 rush attempts this year. Furthermore, he is ninth in rushing yards per game (80.0) and first in rushing touchdowns (six).
Achane burst onto the scene last week. He had 203 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 rush attempts. The rookie track star also had four targets, four receptions, 30 receiving yards and two touchdown receptions.
He's first in yards before contact per attempt (8.5 YBCON/ATT), and he has four rush attempts and two targets inside the 10-yard line, scoring once on the ground and on both targets. Finally, Achane is first in PFF's Elusiveness metric among running backs with at least 15 rush attempts this year.
Bills Analysis: The Bills are favored against the white-hot Dolphins, and the game's total and slight spread make this the most alluring game to stack. The Bills have maintained their pass-first tendencies this year. On 109 plays in a neutral game script, Buffalo's 64% pass rate is the fourth-highest.
Josh Allen started the year on a sour note, getting clowned by Gang Green's defense on the first Monday Night Football contest of the year. Fortunately, he's rebounded. In two games since, Allen has completed 73.9% of his passes for 492 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. The dual-threat quarterback has also rushed for 53 yards and a touchdown since Week 2.
The sturdy quarterback is a bulldozer in scoring territory, and he's attempted three rushes inside the 10-yard line this year, punching one in for a touchdown. Allen is also benefitting from elite pass protection. PFF ranks the Bills second in pass blocking. Allen is projected as the QB1 this week at both DFS providers.
When Allen takes to the air, he frequently targets Stefon Diggs. Buffalo's No. 1 wideout is 12th in target share (30.2%) and 14th in air yards (291). He's tied for fourth in receptions per game (8.3), eighth in receiving yards per game (93.0) and has one touchdown reception. Diggs is the best stacking selection with Allen.
Gabe Davis is also a viable stacking pick. Davis is second on the Bills in routes (112), targets (15) and receiving yards (159). He also leads the team in touchdown receptions (two) and is a big-play threat. Per PFF, he has a 17.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT). Moreover, five of his targets have traveled at least 20 air yards.
Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are the cheapest pieces of exposure to this contest. They're fine one-offs or stacking choices. Since the Bills frequently use two tight ends this year, Knox is third on the Bills in routes (87), and Kincaid is fourth (84).
The matchup isn't too shabby, either. According to The 33rd Team, Miami has allowed 5.7 receptions per game, 46.0 receiving yards per game and two TDs to tight ends. Knox and Kincaid are in the cheap, touchdown-or-bust tight end bucket.
James Cook has thrived in his second season as a pro. The speedy sophomore is fifth in rushing yards per game (89.0). Cook also averages 3.3 YBCON/ATT and has the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt (2.8 YACON/ATT) among running backs with at least 10 attempts this season.
Cook's contributions don't end on the ground. He's been targeted on 17.9% of his routes and was used from the slot (12 snaps), wide (six snaps) and downfield (seven targets zero to nine yards downfield and one 20-plus yards) this season. Cook has the RB1 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at FD and the RB2 value score at DK.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Spread: MIN -4.0
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: The Vikings are the NFL's most pass-happy offense in neutral game scripts, passing on 69% of their 153 plays in that game script. Predictably, Justin Jefferson is going bananas. He's third in air yards (412), fourth in Yards per Route Run (3.14 Y/RR), first in receiving yards per game (152.7) and third in receptions per game (9.0).
Panthers Analysis: Adam Thielen is enjoying a resurgent campaign with a move to the slot. Thielen leads the Panthers in routes (133), targets (25), receptions (20), receiving yards (211) and receiving touchdowns (two). The veteran wideout is an optimizer darling at DK, owning the WR1 value score there.
Game: Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Spread: DEN -3.5
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: The Broncos have a get-right matchup after embarrassing themselves last week. Russell Wilson hasn't been sharp, but his deep ball is still effective, and Marvin Mims is a wildly efficient big-play weapon. He's been targeted on 33.3% of his routes and has an absurd 7.22 Y/RR. Sadly, Mims has run only 27 routes.
Rational thinking says Mims should get more opportunities, but rationality doesn't always win out in the NFL. Still, Mims can pay off for gamers who take a chance on him this week in a cushy matchup. The Bears have allowed the second-highest yards per reception (15.8) to wideouts this year. And, obviously, if Mims's role expands this week, he can be a steal at his bargain salary.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields isn't playing quarterback at an NFL level. Some gamers will look at Miami's offensive explosion last week and view this as a bounce-back spot for Fields, but I won't be among them. And if Fields is a mess again this week, his teammates aren't worth using in DFS, either.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -2.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens have a tough assignment this week, and their wideouts are at less than 100%. Nelson Agholor was an afterthought in Baltimore's offseason acquisitions at the position, but he was tied for second on the Ravens in routes (33) last week with Odell Beckham inactive. Rashod Bateman came out of that game banged up, and neither OBJ nor Bateman has practiced yet this week.
Agholor has nine receptions, 102 receiving yards and one touchdown, which don't excite much. Still, he has a 13.5-yard aDOT and should be a mainstay on the field if OBJ or Bateman is out.
Baltimore's defense is a viable option in GPPs, too. Deshaun Watson has the 10th-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play percentage (6.0 TWP%) and sixth-highest Pressure-To-Sack percentage (25.0 P2S%) among quarterbacks pressured on at least 15 dropbacks this season.
Browns Analysis: Jerome Ford is a stellar pick this week after tallying a 56% snap share as Cleveland's lead back last week. He also handled 47.6% of the backfield's rush attempts and paced the team's running backs in routes (21). The second-year running back had a ho-hum 51 scrimmage yards but snagged two receptions and splashed paydirt twice in Week 3. Ford also has a knack for breaking tackles, ranking third in broken tackles (seven) on rush attempts this season.
Cleveland's defense is a wrecking ball. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Browns are first in pressure rate (32.3%). Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson has the fifth-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play percentage (8.3 TWP%) and the eighth-highest Pressure-To-Sack percentage (23.3 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks against pressure this year. Cleveland's defense is a rock-solid pick on FD and the best value at the position at DK.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Spread: PIT -3.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: Matt Canada is one of the NFL's least creative offensive coordinators. It's not a great environment for DFS options, making the Steelers a wholesale fade in Week 4.
Texans Analysis: Tank Dell is cooking. The dynamic diminutive rookie is ninth in Yards per Route Run (2.61 Y/RR), 13th in receiving yards per game (83.7) and has two receiving touchdowns. Despite his stature, he's primarily aligned on the perimeter.
However, Dell has kicked into the slot more often than Nico Collins, giving the rookie the advantage in DFS over Collins this week. Per PFF, Dell has aligned in the slot on 26.5% of his passing snaps, and Pittsburgh hasn't had answers for slot wide receivers this year. According to The 33rd Team, Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most DK (31.1) and the fourth-most FD (24.0) points per game to slot wideouts.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -1.0
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Rams Analysis: On 148 plays in a neutral game script this year, the Rams have passed 62% of the time. Their pass-heavy tendencies have allowed a few youngsters to excel through three weeks. However, Puka Nacua has been the biggest beneficiary.
The rookie wide receiver is third in target share (34.7%), ninth in air yards (348), eighth in Yards per Route Run (2.68 Y/RR), second in receptions per game (10.0) and fourth in receiving yards per game (112.7). Nacua has a cushy matchup wherever he aligns against the Colts.
Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-most DK (16.6) and the 11th-most FD (12.8) points per game to perimeter wideouts. Slot wide receivers have also flamed the Colts for the fifth-most DK (27.8) and the fifth-most FD (21.8) points per game. So, it's another blow-up spot for Nacua.
Colts Analysis: The Colts have played at the second-fastest pace and passed on 59% of their plays in a neutral game script this year. Per the nfelo app, they are fourth in 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) usage (78%) on first down. As a result, Josh Downs has run 104 routes despite predominantly playing the slot. The rookie is averaging 5.0 receptions and 41.3 receiving yards per game. Downs has the WR2 value score at DK, where he's a much better pick than at FD.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The other shoe dropped for the Buccaneers last week against Philadelphia's stingy defense, and the Saints are a challenging matchup this week. Gamers will unlikely regret fading a team with an implied total of 18.5 points.
Saints Analysis: Derek Carr injured his throwing shoulder last week and hasn't practiced this week. Jameis Winston will start if Carr doesn't play. Neither Winston nor Carr, with an injured shoulder, are encouraging choices for New Orleans's offensive outlook this week.
Game: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -8.0
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Sam Howell was sacked nine times last week. Avoiding sacks won't be much easier against Philadelphia's stacked defensive line. Thus, gamers can fade the Commanders in DFS this week.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles are running the ball down their opponents' throats. Their 54% run rate on 117 plays in a neutral game script is the highest in the NFL by two percent. Frankly, it makes sense to lean on their running game since PFF ranks the Eagles first in run blocking.
And, of course, D'Andre Swift is incentivizing them to run the ball by effectively gashing defenses. Swift is second in yards before contact per attempt (4.9 YBCON/ATT) among running backs with at least 10 attempts and third in broken tackles (seven). The former Lion is also fourth in PFF's Elusiveness metric among running backs with at least 15 attempts and fourth in rush yards per game (102.7).
And even though the Eagles continue to use the tush push with Jalen Hurts at the goal line, Swift shockingly has the third-most rush attempts (eight) among running backs inside the 10-yard line this year. Finally, the game script should be outstanding for Swift. So, he has the RB1 value score at DK.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Spread: CIN -2.5
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals are chucking the pigskin at the second-highest rate (67%) in neutral game scripts this year. Their offensive philosophy is tailor-made for this matchup since Tennessee's opponents have passed at the fifth-highest rate (64%) in neutral game scripts this year.
Joe Burrow hasn't been himself while playing through his calf injury. Thankfully, he's returned to practice in full and could be sharper in a great matchup. Burrow's rough start has depressed his salary at both DFS outlets, making him a tantalizing pick in GPPs against a defense that has the seventh-lowest pressure rate (17.6%) and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (275.3) and the fifth-highest Quarterback Rating (108.7) this season.
Ja'Marr Chase blew up in Week 3. The third-year wide receiver was targeted on a whopping 29.4% of his routes last week, erupting for 12 receptions and 141 receiving yards. Chase was moved around the alignment and had a 9.5-yard aDOT against the Rams.
Tyler Boyd had a quiet opener but has tallied 16 targets (18.8% targets per route run), 11 receptions and 91 receiving yards in two subsequent contests. He doesn't have a sky-high ceiling as Cincinnati's No. 3 wide receiver. Still, Boyd and Chase have a dreamy matchup this week.
The Titans have allowed the eighth-most DK (18.1) and the eighth-most FD (13.6) points per game to perimeter wideouts and coughed up the third-most DK (31.1) and the third-most FD (24.1) points per game to slot wide receivers.
Tanner Hudson is a sneaky punt in GPPs this week. He was elevated from the practice squad to replace an injured Irv Smith and ran 30 routes, besting Mitchell Wilcox's and Drew Sample's combined 23 routes. Hudson had four targets, two receptions 30 receiving yards and an 8.3-yard aDOT. As long as Smith is out and Hudson is called up again, he's a viable punt at the minimum salary on DK and FD.
Titans Analysis: Chigoziem Okonkwo is strictly a game-stack bring-back. He's not an enticing one-off. Still, Okonkwo is fourth on the Titans in routes (69) and cemented atop the depth chart at tight end. And Cincinnati has allowed 5.3 receptions per game, 55.0 receiving yards per game and two TDs to tight ends this year.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: LAC -5.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Raiders Analysis: Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers dominate the work in Las Vegas's passing attack. Adams is second in air yards (424), first in target share (39.8%), tied for third in red-zone targets (five) and third in Yards per Route Run (3.16 Y/RR) among wide receivers.
The alpha wideout's underlying data has translated to the box scores. Adams is tied for second in receiving touchdowns (three), tied for fourth in receptions per game (8.3) and fifth in receiving yards per game (107.3). He was also targeted on 37.7% of his routes in two games with Meyers healthy.
Meyers hasn't been iced out, either. He's tied for third in red-zone targets (five) among wide receivers, targeted on 33.8% of his 65 routes, 14th in receiving yards per game (83.0) and averages 8.0 receptions per game.
The matchup is Charmin-soft for Adams and Meyers. The Chargers have allowed the second-most DK (27.4) and the second-most FD (21.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers this year, and Adams and Meyers have aligned wide on over 80% of their passing snaps this year, per PFF.
Sadly, Jimmy Garoppolo is in the NFL's concussion protocol. If he's ruled out, neither Adams nor Meyers is useful in DFS this week.
Chargers Analysis: In a surprise to no one, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is calling a fast-paced offense. The Chargers have the third-fastest pace in neutral game scripts. They've also passed at a 62% pass on their 194 plays in a neutral game script. They might run slightly more often this week if Austin Ekeler returns from a two-game absence.
Still, Justin Herbert is in a great spot against a lousy defense. Las Vegas has the second-lowest pressure rate (14.2%) and allowed the second-highest Quarterback Rating (116.8) this year. Meanwhile, Herbert is first in completion percentage (74.4%), third in passing yards per game (313.0) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (six).
When he slings it, Keenan Allen will be his primary passing-game weapon. The savvy route-running veteran is fifth in target share (33.1%), 12th in air yards (402) and fifth in Yards per Route Run (3.12 Y/RR), parlaying those marks into the most receptions per game (10.7), the third-most receiving yards per game (134.0) and two receiving touchdowns. Allen also has one passing touchdown.
Joshua Palmer is the most likely to stay on the field in two-wideout personnel, but Quentin Johnston is also an intriguing DFS selection. The former has bested 100 receiving yards twice in his career. Palmer has also scored a touchdown in seven contests as a pro, and he's reached double-digit points in DK's scoring format 11 times.
Johnston is raw but was an explosive playmaker in his final season at TCU. According to PFF, Johnston had 97 targets, 60 receptions, 1,067 receiving yards, 3.05 Y/RR, a 12.9-yard aDOT, 8.9 Yards After the Catch per Reception (YAC/REC), 17.8 yards per reception and six touchdown receptions last season at TCU. With Mike Williams out for the remainder of the year, maybe Moore put some schemed plays into the playbook to get the ball in Johnston's hands this week. It's a leap of faith, but Johnston has the explosiveness to reward gamers who roll the dice.
Game: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -6.5
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: Dallas's defense didn't live up to their elite billing last week against the Cardinals. Still, the Cowboys have allowed the 1oth-fewest yards per play (4.8) and recorded 12 sacks this year. They can rebound against New England's mediocre offense this week, rendering the Patriots unexciting in DFS.
Cowboys Analysis: The Patriots have a stingy defense, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.4) this season. That figure is especially impressive, considering they played the Eagles in Week 1 and the Dolphins in Week 2. So, it's not a favorable spot to pay the high salaries required to use Dallas's best offensive players, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. There are better spots to use cap space this week.
Game: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -14.0
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Cardinals Analysis: Fading the Cardinals and their ugly implied total is entirely reasonable. However, gamers building San Francisco stacks or those looking for a bring-back option from one of the 49ers' studs should consider Rondale Moore.
The diminutive wideout's eight receptions and 55 scoreless receiving yards this year are yawn-inducing, but he's also contributed five rush attempts for 66 yards and a touchdown. Moore showed off his wheels on the touchdown run last week.
The third-year pro is a versatile weapon. Yet, his 62% rate in the slot and 13 snaps in the backfield this year, per PFF, are intriguing this week. The 49ers have allowed 7.0 receptions per game (the most) and 36.3 receiving yards per game to running backs. San Francisco has also allowed the eighth-most DK (24.9) and the 12th-most FD (17.2) points per game to slot wideouts.
Perhaps first-time offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will try to attack San Francisco's top-shelf defense creatively by using Moore as a pass-catching weapon out of the slot and the backfield. That would be considered a galaxy-brain thought if Petzing hadn't already demonstrated a willingness to use Moore in the backfield in all three games this year.
49ers Analysis: The 49ers have passed on 55% of their 107 plays in a neutral game script. They're sizable favorites this week. So, it's noteworthy they've rushed on 61% of their 90 plays when leading by at least eight points this year.
Christian McCaffrey is the most exciting option from the 49ers and is projected as the RB1 at both DFS outlets. CMC is leading the NFL in rushing yards per game (117.7). San Francisco's do-it-all back also did his most extensive work in the passing game of 2023 in Week 3, earning a target on 25% of his 20 routes, reeling in all five for 34 receiving yards.
CMC's increased usage in the passing game coincided with Brandon Aiyuk missing last week's game with a shoulder injury. Aiyuk might return this week, but Deebo Samuel could miss the contest. Samuel and Jauan Jennings haven't practiced this week while tending to injuries. Even if Aiyuk, Samuel and Jennings all play, Kyle Shanahan might reduce their usage to avoid exacerbating their injuries.
CMC wasn't the only one with a season-best showing in San Francisco's passing game last week. George Kittle had his best game of the year in Week 3. He was targeted on 27.3% of his routes and had seven receptions for 90 receiving yards.
Kittle's value this week will get a massive boost if Aiyuk or Samuel are out. And the timing couldn't be better, with a good matchup on tap. The Cardinals are tied for the third-most receiving yards per game (62.3) allowed to tight ends this year and have coughed up 5.7 receptions per game to them as well.
Brock Purdy has many detractors who entirely credit his supporting cast and head coach for his success. Nevertheless, in the 11 games Purdy has played over 80% of San Francisco's offensive snaps, the 49ers have averaged 31.9 points per game.
The 2022 NFL Draft's Mr. Irrelevant is second in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.13 ANY/A) and tied for 10th in passing yards per game (245.3) this year. Frankly, it doesn't matter why Purdy is successful. If touchdown variance is in his favor this week, Purdy can crush it at his modest salary.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
