Now that it’s Week 3, there are two weeks of data points to analyze when making DFS selections. The data is critical for decision-making. However, it’s also a small sample and shouldn’t cause gamers to entirely abandon their evaluations of players based on their performances before 2023.
This week’s NFL DFS Digest weighs the 2023 data in a nuanced manner to narrow the DFS player pool to a palatable number. Let’s look at the players I’m mixing into my lineups, and you should be considering, too.
Week 3 Matchups
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -7.5
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Colts Analysis: The Colts are fun this year and fantasy-friendly. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Colts have played at the second-fastest pace (24.5 seconds per snap) and passed on 58% of their passes in neutral game scripts in 2023. And whether Anthony Richardson clears the NFL's concussion protocol and suits up or Gardner Minshew pinch hits for him, the Colts will likely attack the Ravens through the air.
Baltimore's opponents have passed on 67% of their plays in neutral game scripts against them this year. Of course, the Bengals have a pass-heavy offense and faced them in Week 2. So, gamers should keep that in mind. Still, two of Indy's pass-catchers are compelling DFS selections.
Michael Pittman is a target hog. He's tied for the fifth-highest target share (32.9%) among wideouts this year. The big-bodied wide receiver has hauled in 16 receptions for 153 receiving yards and has a good matchup to build on his success this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Ravens have allowed the 12th-most DK (18.6) and the 11th-most FD (14.4) points per game to perimeter wideouts. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pittman has played 75.9% of his passing snaps aligned wide in 2023.
Josh Downs is an intriguing punt as well. According to the nfelo app, the Colts have used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wideouts) on 72% of their snaps on first down, the fifth-highest mark in the league. As a result, Downs's 63 routes this season are the third most on the Colts.
The rookie has primarily played the slot, aligning there for 59 of 66 passing snaps. Downs's deployment from the slot is a boon for his fantasy value in this matchup. Baltimore has allowed the eighth-most DK (26.1) and the 10th-most FD (19.1) points per game to slot wide receivers. Downs hasn't been a world-beater to this point, but his 3.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game were OK. He can exceed those marks in a cushy matchup.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens haven't used the uptempo and pass-heavy offense promised in the offseason. Instead, they've passed on 46% of plays in neutral game scripts and ranked 17th pace. However, the Colts might bring the speedy, pass-happy offense out of the Ravens that gamers were promised during the summer months. The Colts are tied for the second-most plays run against them this season.
Lamar Jackson can erupt if the play volume is cranked up for him this week. Reunited with his stud tight end last week, Jackson passed for 237 yards and two touchdowns, adding 54 yards on the ground for good measure. So, don't overlook the dual-threat quarterback this week in GPPs.
Mark Andrews was the tight end alluded to in Jackson's write-up. He was targeted on 24.2% of his routes last week and had five receptions for 45 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 2.
Zay Flowers is balling. He has a 27.8 target share. And per PFF, he's 16th in Yards per Route Run (2.26 Y/RR) among 60 wide receivers targeted at least 10 times this season. Flowers can cook Indy's secondary, especially when he's in the slot.
The Colts have allowed the most DK (35.1) points per game and the second-most FD (28.1) points per game to slot wide receivers. Flowers has a 37.1% slot rate on passing snaps so far. The matchup is also above-average when he kicks outside. Indianapolis has ceded the ninth-most DK (20.3) points per game and the 10th-most FD (15.8) points per game to perimeter wideouts.
Game: Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.5
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Titans Analysis: Deshaun Watson hasn't played like an NFL-caliber starting quarterback since returning from his suspension last year for sexual misconduct. Watson's been extremely slow getting rid of the ball. Per PFF, he has the fourth-slowest time to throw (3.16 seconds) among 32 quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks this year.
The Titans are a pass-funnel defense, and Nick Chubb -- sadly -- is out for the year because of a gruesome knee injury. So, the Browns will presumably ask Watson to drop back often, and Tennessee's defense can tee off on him.
Browns Analysis: Again, Watson isn't playing like an NFL starter presently. His horrendous play and Tennessee's stout run defense are reasons to fade the Browns.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -3.5
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the plunge on Bijan Robinson, but tough cuts must be made in this piece. Tyler Allgeier can be a thorn in Robinson's side, and Desmond Ridder continues to leave much to be desired. Additionally, the Falcons have played at the fifth-slowest pace in neutral game scripts, and the Lions have held running backs to a putrid 3.0 yards per carry this season. There are enough blemishes on Robinson's profile in this matchup to knock him out of my player pool of DFS options this week.
Lions Analysis: Atlanta's run-heavy approach has contributed to their opponents running the ninth-fewest plays against them this year. The Falcons could control the clock and limit the number of plays the Lions run this week. In addition, Amon-Ra St. Brown's toe injury is concerning for the offense's ceiling outlook. In fact, there is a risk that the Lions faceplant if the Sun God's toe injury limits him and the ancillary pieces can't pick up the slack.
Regardless, Sam LaPorta is a sweet pick. He is PFF's third-highest-graded tight end and first in Yards per Route Run (1.82 Y/RR) among 28 targeted at least seven times this season. LaPorta was also targeted on a rock-solid 19.6% of his routes. The rookie tight end has averaged 5.0 receptions and 51.0 receiving yards per game.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -2.0
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Saints Analysis: Kendre Miller should be ready to make his professional debut, and the Saints desperately need his juice in their backfield while Alvin Kamara serves the final game of his three-game suspension. Jamaal Williams was injured last week, paving the way to a potential bell-cow role for Miller.
The Saints were enamored enough with Miller to select him in the third round of this year's NFL Draft after he balled out in TCU's backfield last year. According to PFF, Miller rushed 224 times for 1,399 yards (6.2 yards per carry), 3.64 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A), 70 missed tackles forced and 17 rushing touchdowns.
It's a cushy runout for Miller against Green Bay's defense. The Packers have the third-highest rush rate (52%) against them in neutral game scripts, albeit after facing the run-first Bears and Falcons. Still, they've coughed up the fourth-most DK (31.2) and the sixth-most FD (25.9) points per game to running backs in 2023.
New Orleans has also leaned on their running attack at a meaningful rate, rushing 47% of the time in neutral game scripts this season, despite playing Tennessee's pass-funnel defense in Week 1. There's a risk the Saints ease Miller in. But if he's hot on his opportunities, Tony Jones isn't talented enough to keep Miller off the field.
Packers Analysis: Luke Musgrave hasn't taken the league by storm but has played well relative to his peers at tight end. He's third in Yards per Route Run (1.63 Y/RR) and has the second-deepest average depth of target (12.9-yard aDOT) among tight ends targeted at least seven times this season.
Game: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: JAC -9.5
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Texans Analysis: The Texans haven't babied C.J. Stroud. They have the seventh-highest pass rate (63%) in neutral game scripts. Conversely, the Jaguars have the fourth-highest pass rate (67%) against them in neutral game scripts, with the caveat they played the pass-happy Chiefs in Week 2.
Stroud has been up for the challenge, averaging the fourth-most passing yards per game (313.0) this season. The rookie can shine in a good matchup. Jacksonville's allowed the fourth-most DK (23.6) and the fifth-most FD (22.1) points per game to quarterbacks through two weeks.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell are the most exciting picks from the Texans as stacking selections or one-off picks. Collins has a 23.3% target share and the fifth-most air yards (151). Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Collins has the 10th-highest team air-yard percentage (40.74%).
The big-bodied perimeter wideout (he's been aligned wide on 80.7% of his passing snaps) has the ninth-most Yards per Route Run (2.86 Y/RR) among wide receivers targeted at least 10 times. Collins's sterling underlying marks have resulted in the fifth-most receiving yards per game (113), 6.5 receptions per game and one receiving touchdown.
Dell has also flashed his potential. The speedy, diminutive wide receiver has a robust 25.9% target share. Dell chipped in for the Texans in Week 1 before surging to 10 targets, seven receptions, 72 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Dell was also second on the Texans in routes (45) last week. And despite his small stature, he's aligned wide on 71.1% of his passing snaps.
The Jaguars are tied for the eighth-most DK (20.8) points allowed per game and tied for the fifth-most FD (17.5) points per game coughed up to perimeter wide receivers this season. Thus, Collins and Dell are superb DFS choices at both DFS providers this week.
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars are favored and have a tasty implied total. That's an excellent starting point for Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne.
Ridley exploded for eight receptions, 101 receiving yards and one touchdown on 11 targets in Week 1 before producing only two receptions for 32 scoreless yards on eight targets in Week 2. He would have had a better day if he was able to secure a near touchdown in the back of the end zone.
The 28-year-old wideout's underlying data is encouraging, too. He's 23rd in air yards (94) among wide receivers and has the 12th-highest team air-yard percentage (40.02%). Ridley was also targeted on 25% of his routes in the first two games. He can pop off this week as Jacksonville's top wideout, and the assignment will be easier with second-year cornerback Derek Stingley sidelined with an injury.
Etienne is in the best position for success this week, though. The Jaguars are commanding favorites, and the speedy running back has been Jacksonville's featured back. Etienne has handled 76.9% of the rushes by Jacksonville's running backs this year and has run 56 routes versus 13 for Tank Bigsby and five for D'Ernest Johnson.
Etienne has also demonstrated the ability to evade tacklers, ranking first in broken tackles (seven) on rushes this year. The third-year pro's rushing production hasn't been eye-catching to this point this season, but this is an eruption spot since the Jaguars should have a positive game script as 9.5-point favorites.
Game: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -6.5
Over/Under: 48.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: The Broncos aren't a fantasy-friendly team. Denver plays at the ninth-slowest pace in neutral game scripts and is tied for 23rd in offensive plays this year. Gamers are unlikely to regret fading the Broncos this week.
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa's playing out of his mind this year and has climbed to the top of the betting odds to win this year's NFL MVP Award. Nevertheless, Jaylen Waddle is in the NFL's concussion protocol, and Denver's slow pace and lack of offensive firepower to push Miami's offense are significant drawbacks to using Tagovailoa this week.
Thus, Raheem Mostert is the most exciting piece of Miami's explosive lineup. He has amassed the second-most yards before contact per attempt (5.1) and is 16th out of 48 running backs with at least 10 rush attempts in PFF's Elusiveness metric. Mostert also has the second-fastest maximum speed (21.62 mph) on a play this year (his 43-yard touchdown run against the Patriots in Week 2).
The electrifying running back is tied for the 10th-highest snap share (73%) among running backs this year and is rewarding the Dolphins for leaning on him. Mostert is ninth in rushing yards per game (79.0) and tied for first in rushing touchdowns (three).
Miami's defense is the no-brainer top pick at FD. They're home favorites and face a sack-prone quarterback. According to PFF, Russell Wilson has the third-highest Pressure-to-Sack percentage (30.0 P2S%) this year among quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks. Wilson was sacked twice in Week 1 and seven times in Week 2.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: EVEN
Over/Under: 54.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: This game has the highest total on the slate and projects to be a back-and-forth shootout. It will be chalky, but it's good chalk. The game should be played at a breakneck pace. The Chargers are playing at the third-fastest situation-neutral pace (25.2 seconds/play), and the Vikings are playing at the eighth-fastest pace.
The Chargers should have success through the air and on the ground. Justin Herbert is seventh in passing yards per game (267.0) and has three passing touchdowns this season. Kellen Moore has called a pass on 56% of Los Angeles's plays in a neutral game script, and Herbert can benefit from the pristine playing conditions inside the dome in Minnesota.
His supremely talented one-two punch of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is also exciting. Allen has the ninth-most air yards (140) and is 17th in Yards per Route Run (2.25 Y/RR) among wide receivers targeted at least 10 times. The veteran wideout also has a 27.1% target share and converted his chances into production. Allen is tied for ninth in receptions per game (7.0), ninth in receptions per game (93.5) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (two).
He also hasn't had a static role in the offense. Per PFF, Allen was in the slot for 60.4% of his passing snaps and wide for 38.5% of them in the season's first two games.
While Allen has been LA's No. 1 wideout, Williams has soaked up a 25.7% target share. Williams was also targeted on 24.3% of his 70 routes. Additionally, Williams's 11.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this year is lower than he's had during any season in his first six years in the NFL. The lower aDOT reduces Williams's volatility since shorter passes are completed at a higher percentage.
Like Allen, Williams has moved around the alignment. He's played wide on 63.2% of his passing snaps in the slot 35.5% of the time.
Allen and Williams should barbecue Minnesota's leaky secondary. The Vikings have yielded the second-most DK (26.7) and the most FD (21.4) points per game to perimeter wideouts this season.
Joshua Kelley can rebound from a disappointing effort against Tennessee's stingy run defense. The Vikings have the second-highest rush rate (57%) against them in neutral game scripts this season. Last week, Philadelphia's running backs steamrolled the Vikings for 224 rushing yards and one touchdown on 36 attempts.
Kelley is only one week removed from rumbling for 91 yards and a touchdown on 16 rushes in Week 1 and played 79% of LA's offensive snaps in Austin Ekeler's absence last week. Ekeler is out again this week, giving Kelley a mulligan for last week's stinker and a golden opportunity to be this week's best value at running back.
Vikings Analysis: The Vikings are chucking the pigskin all over the gridiron this season. They're first in situation-neutral pace rate (73%). Kirk Cousins is smashing in Minnesota's pass-centric attack. Cousins has averaged the second-most passing yards per game (354.0) this season. He's also tied for the most passing touchdowns (six).
Meanwhile, teams have passed at a 58% rate in neutral game scripts against the Chargers in 2023. Los Angeles hasn't thwarted passing efforts against them, either. As a result, the Chargers have allowed the second-most DK (26.1) and the second-most FD (24.6) points per game to quarterbacks this season. Cousins is my favorite quarterback in cash games and a high-ceiling GPP selection.
And, of course, Justin Jefferson is an elite pick. He's first in air yards (206), sixth in Yards per Route Run (3.32 Y/RR) among wideouts targeted at least 10 times, second in receptions per game (10.0) and first in receiving yards per game (154.5).
Jefferson can torch any secondary. Yet, he has a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Chargers have allowed the most receiving yards (565), the most yards per reception (17.7), the most DK points per game (61.6) and the most FD points per game (49.1) to wideouts this year.
Jefferson is projected as the WR1 at DK and FD, with a matching WR1 value score (the measure of points per thousand dollars of salary). I'll have more exposure to Jefferson in all game types than any other player on this week's DFS slate. He's a must-use player in cash games and has the slate-breaking upside tailor-made for tournaments.
Game: New England Patriots at New York Jets
Spread: NE -2.5
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Patriots Analysis: It's a new year, but the same Zach Wilson. He has the fifth-slowest time to throw (3.12 seconds) and the second-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play rate (6.7 TWP%) among quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks. New England's defense can smother the Jets and pile up fantasy points this week.
Jets Analysis: Gang Green's defense is elite, and Mac Jones has the 11th-highest Turnover-Worthy-Play rate (3.6 TWP) among quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks this season, per PFF. New York's offense is unlikely to stake the defense to a sizable lead, but the Jets can be a valuable defense in DFS in a low-scoring defensive slugfest.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders
Spread: BUF -6.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Bills Analysis: Predictably, the Bills rebounded from their meltdown against Gang Green's stingy defense in Week 1. The Bills are still a pass-first, Josh Allen-centric offense, ranking fourth in situation-neutral pass rate (65%) in 2023. Conversely, teams have passed at a 58% clip in neutral game scripts against the Commanders this year.
So, the setup is good for Allen. The dual-threat quarterback carved the Raiders up for 274 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. In 15 games in the regular season against opponents other than the Jets since last year, Allen has averaged 280.3 passing yards per game and 39.5 rushing yards per game. He also passed for 33 touchdowns and rushed for three touchdowns. Allen is a high-upside pick this week.
Gabe Davis is a big-play weapon in Buffalo's passing attack. He's tied for the 12th-deepest average depth of target (13.9-yard aDOT) among wide receivers targeted at least 10 times this season. After a quiet opener against New York's elite cornerbacks, Davis bounced back for six receptions, 92 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven targets last week.
The one-trick pony can put his vertical trick to use this week against a defense that was shredded deep last week. The hail mary the Commanders allowed was flukey, but Marvin Mims smoked them for a 53-yard and a 60-yard reception earlier in the game. If they don't tighten up their deep coverage, Allen can connect with Davis deep.
Dalton Kincaid is a good pick if Dawson Knox can overcome his back issue and give it a go this week. Yet, Kincaid is the premier punt tight end if Knox isn't active. The rookie tight end is tied for 13th in Yards per Route Run (1.13 Y/RR) among tight ends targeted at least seven times this year.
Kincaid has nine receptions and 69 receiving yards this season, which is fine. But the upside is immense if Knox is out and the rookie consolidates the tight end opportunities for himself. Knox had nine targets, six receptions, 35 receiving yards and one touchdown reception through the first two games.
James Cook is a genuine dual-threat running back, doing damage on the ground and through the air. The sophomore has the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt (3.7) and is tied for the fourth-most 10-plus-yard rushes (five). He's also eighth in PFF's Elusiveness metric among running backs with at least 10 rush attempts this season and seventh in rushing yards per game (84.5).
In the passing game, Cook is also cooking -- forgive the bad pun. He's tied for 15th in Yards per Route Run (1.13 Y/RR) among 33 running backs targeted at least five times this year. Cook has been targeted on 21.3% of his routes, had a 2.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and seven of his 10 targets were beyond the line of scrimmage through two games. Thus, Cook can be used as a one-off, a stacking partner with Allen or a stacking pick with Buffalo's defense.
The Bills are favored and can pile up sacks if the Commanders are in predictable passing situations. Sam Howell has the highest Pressure-to-Sack percentage (35.7 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 30 dropbacks this year. Fortunately, the Bills have the horses to get after Howell. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bills have the 12th-highest pressure rate (25.5%) this year.
Commanders Analysis: Gamers who stack the Bills don't have to use a bring-back from the Commanders. Still, Antonio Gibson is a sneaky contrarian pick. He's 12th in Yards per Route Run (1.29 Y/RR) among running backs targeted at least five times this season and has run 42 routes versus 33 for Brian Robinson.
The game's games script will be negative for the Commanders if the betting info is accurate and comes to fruition, possibly thrusting Gibson into a more prominent role this week. Finally, Buffalo's weakness against the run is overstated. Breece Hall gashed them, but the other running backs they've faced have had only 59 rushing yards on 27 attempts this season. However, they've coughed up 12 receptions for 114 yards to the position.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -6.0
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: Andy Dalton will lead Carolina's lifeless, punchless offense against the Seahawks this week. Gamers can comfortably fade the Panthers in Week 3.
Seahawks Analysis: The Seahawks overcame injuries to their offensive tackles last week, but the injuries to that position are still a concern. DK Metcalf is also tending to a rib injury. Yet, the injuries are burying the lede. The game will likely be played at a vomit-inducing pace. Carolina has played at the sixth-slowest situation-neutral pace, and the Seahawks have played at the fourth-slowest pace. This game is the opposite of a DFS treasure trove. Gamers should fade it.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: DAL -12.0
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: Tony Pollard is carrying the load this season. He's played 64% of Dallas's offensive snaps and handled 50 opportunities (39 rush attempts and 11 targets) for 142 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, nine receptions and 49 receiving yards in two blowout victories. The Cowboys have also trusted him near the goal line, feeding him the most rushes inside the 10-yard line (12) this year.
Dallas has leaned on the run heavily when blowing out the Giants and Jets this year, rushing on 62% of their 89 plays when leading by at least eight points this year. Pollard should be force-fed the ball and is the favorite to lead running backs in scoring this week.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals have an implied total of 15.5 points, and Dallas's defense is elite, even without Trevon Diggs. It's unwise to use players from the Cardinals this week.
Game: Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -12.5
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields is struggling again this year, and the Bears have an implied total of 17.25 points. Gamers should stay away from Chicago in DFS this week.
Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is projected as the highest-scoring quarterback this week, but I'm fading him. Kansas City's offense hasn't found their footing this year. Still, this week, the blowout potential is more concerning for Mahomes's and Travis Kelce's ceiling. The Chiefs probably won't be pushed into a shootout by Chicago's broken offense, decreasing the ceiling of Kansas City's two studs.
Nevertheless, if the Chiefs blow the Bears out, they'll need points from somewhere. The cheaper ancillary pieces in Kansas City's offense are risky but have a lower bar to clear to provide DFS gamers with value. Skyy Moore and Justin Watson are Kansas City's most intriguing bargain-bin options.
Moore is second on the Chiefs in routes (62) and had three receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown last week. The second-year receiver picked up 54 receiving yards last week when Mahomes extended a play with his legs, and Moore was left uncovered. It wasn't an impressive feat on Moore's part, but it served as a reminder of what can happen for any player on the field running routes for Mahomes.
Watson has been a vertical weapon for the Chiefs this year, graduating from his role as a cardio king last year when he ran empty, untargeted routes. My former colleague Matthew Freedman highlighted some of Watson's eye-catching statistics this season on the app formerly known as Twitter.
Watson's vertical prowess is perfect for this matchup. The Bears have coughed up the third-most yards per reception (16.6) to wide receivers this year. Watson could come up empty in the box score but also has the potential to burn the Bears deep, making him a fun GPP pick.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
