After months of tracking training camp and preseason reports, Week 1 provided DFS gamers with hard data in games that mattered. The info was critical for putting together this week’s top DFS options. However, overreacting to one week of data is unwise. The picks for this week cast a wide net, providing readers with many options to mix across DFS lineups.
Week 2 Matchups
Game: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: ATL -1.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Packers Analysis: According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Luke Musgrave ran the most routes (24) for the Packers in Week 1. The rookie tight end had three receptions for 50 yards on four targets. He would have had a better day if he hadn't stumbled short of the end zone on a long reception.
If Aaron Jones is ruled out, the Packers could need more from Musgrave this week. Regardless, the rookie tight end is an intriguing GPP pick against a defense that Hayden Hurst flamed for five receptions, 41 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are a run-first offense and don't run many plays. They also split the backfield up last week and have an unserious starting quarterback. Desmond Ridder had only 75 Air Yards on 18 pass attempts last week. It's unlikely gamers will regret fading Atlanta's offense.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -8.5
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Raiders Analysis: Spoiler alert: the Bills are an exciting offense to stack this week. As a result, Josh Jacobs has a compelling case to be used in game stacks as a bring-back option. Jacobs reprised his role as Las Vegas's bell-cow running back in the opener, handling 19 of 20 running back rushes and running 14 routes versus nine for Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White combined.
Jacobs is game-script-proof as a workhorse. Yet, he can pile up yards as a runner as long as Vegas can keep it close enough to run. The Bills yielded an NFL-high 6.9 yards per carry to running backs last week. They also surrendered six receptions and 58 receiving yards to New York's running backs.
Bills Analysis: The Bills are a pass-first offense. According to the nfelo app, Buffalo had the third-highest Pass Rate Over Expected (7.6% PROE) in 2022. They didn't turn over a new leaf in Week 1. The Bills were fifth in PROE (6.5%) against Gang Green's elite pass defense.
The Jets have been Josh Allen's kryptonite. The Raiders are unlikely to give him the same problems, and the sportsbooks and bettors agree. Buffalo's implied total (27.75 points) is the highest on the slate, and Allen's the do-it-all triggerman, making him an excellent selection and the highest-projected scorer at DK and FD.
Stefon Diggs is Buffalo's most likely pass-catcher to erupt if Allen smashes. Diggs was seventh in receptions per game (6.8), fourth in receiving yards per game (89.2) and tied for third in touchdown receptions (11) last season and picked up where he left off in the opener. Diggs had 10 receptions for 102 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jets.
Gabe Davis was quiet in the opener (two receptions for 32 yards). However, he led the Bills in routes (47). The one-dimensional field-stretching wideout can blow up if Allen isn't under duress as often this week. Davis is a boom-or-bust tournament option.
While offseason coach-speak often doesn't come to pass in the regular season, Dalton Kincaid was genuinely used as a big wideout after the Bills spent the offseason billing him as such. Kincaid's 38 routes were the fourth-most on the team last week and only nine fewer than Davis's team high. Additionally, Kincaid played only three of his passing snaps aligned inline, aligning wide 13 times and in the slot 23 times. Kincaid's usage and attachment to a potent pass-first offense make him the top punt at tight end on DK and FD.
James Cook's 59% offensive snap share was the highest among Buffalo's running backs last week. He also ran 25 routes compared to 12 for Latavius Murray and seven for Damien Harris. Cook had 18 opportunities (12 rushes and six targets), 46 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards as the lead back last week. The Bills are sizable favorites, and the Raiders yielded 10 targets, eight receptions and 42 receiving yards to Denver's running backs last week, giving Cook a few paths to DFS success this week.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -3.5
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Ravens Analysis: Baltimore's new-look passing attack ran through dynamic rookie Zay Flowers last week. Flowers had an eye-popping 45.5% target share, nine receptions, 78 receiving yards, two rush attempts and nine rushing yards against the Texans. Even though Mark Andrews might be back this week to siphon targets, Flowers can cede a few and still provide DFS gamers with value. And since Baltimore's offensive line is navigating injuries, Flowers's shallow average depth of target (2.6-yard aDOT in Week 1, per PFF) could be appealing to Lamar Jackson to avoid getting crushed by pass-rushers.
Bengals Analysis: Joe Burrow had a forgettable performance in Week 1. He was likely rusty after tending to a calf injury before the season. The weather was lousy, and Cleveland's defense didn't make things easier, either. It's a prime bounce-back spot for him this week, especially if Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey are out.
Ja'Marr Chase is the top weapon in Cincinnati's passing attack and is projected as the WR1 at DK and FD this week. In a 13-game sample last year when Chase and Tee Higgins were healthy, Chase was the alpha, pacing the team in targets (130), receptions (90), receiving yards (1,097) and receiving touchdowns (10).
Tyler Boyd is behind Chase and Higgins in the pecking order. Fortunately, there's enough meat on the bone for him to get home in a good matchup, at least at DK. The Bengals were second in PROE (7.6%) and the Ravens struggled with slot wideouts in 2022. According to The 33rd Team, the Ravens have allowed the 12th-most DK points per game (20.5) to slot wide receivers since last season.
Cincinnati's defense is a potentially sneaky pick this week. Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum haven't practiced this week, leaving Baltimore's offensive line in shambles if they can't give it a go this weekend. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jackson's 7.4% sack rate was the 13th-highest mark among qualified quarterbacks in 2022. Jackson took four sacks (15.4 sack%) in Week 1. If the Ravens are in a negative game script, the Bengals can pin their ears back and get after him.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -4.5
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: Kenneth Walker was a polarizing player in season-long fantasy leagues because the Seahawks spent a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet. He's a fun GPP pick this week after digging into Walker's Week 1 usage, though. The explosive second-year running back had a 63% snap share, led the backfield in routes (16) and had four receptions on four targets, albeit for only three yards.
Walker's floor and ceiling are elevated with even a partial passing-game role. However, Walker's explosive running ability is the most exciting part of his DFS profile. According to PFF, Walker's 43.2% breakaway rate (the percentage of rushing yards gained on 15-plus-yard designed runs) was the second-highest rate among running backs with at least 100 attempts last season.
Sadly, Seattle's offensive tackles are injured. That's not optimal for Walker. Yet, the injuries might incentivize Pete Carroll to lean on the running game to protect Geno Smith and the makeshift offensive line, which would be ideal for Walker. The lineup optimizer believes in Walker, tagging him with the highest value score among running backs at DK and the third-highest value score at the position on FD.
Lions Analysis: Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target sponge, and he did his best work at home last year. In eight home contests in 2022, ARSB averaged 7.3 receptions per game, 83.8 receiving yards per game and scored six touchdowns. The Sun God should shine bright against a secondary torched by Rams' wideouts last week.
The Lions are home favorites, and Seattle's offensive line is without at least one starting offensive tackle, Abraham Lucas. Their other starting offensive tackle, Charles Cross, hasn't practiced because of a toe injury. The setup is perfect for Detroit's defense.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Spread: HOU -1.5
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Colts Analysis: Anthony Richardson didn't faceplant in his first start. Instead, he flashed his potential, and head coach Shane Steichen didn't coddle him. According to the nfelo app, the Colts had the eighth-highest PROE (0.5%) and ran 11-personnel (three wideouts, one running back and one tight end) at the fifth-highest rate (75%) on first down last week. Furthermore, according to Rotoviz's pace app, the Colts played at the second-fastest (24.3 seconds per snap) situation-neutral pace.
As a result, while Richardson's wheels are his most DFS-friendly trait, he can score points as a passer, too. Richardson completed 24 of 37 passes for 223 yards, one touchdown and one interception last week, bolstering the value of his 10 rushes for 40 yards and a touchdown.
Since the Colts trust the rookie as a passer and use three wide receivers at a high rate, Michael Pittman and Josh Downs are nifty stacking partners with Richardson. Pittman had a robust 28.2% target share last week, securing eight receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Downs was third on the team in routes (36) and had seven targets, three receptions and 30 yards. The floor is low for Downs. Nevertheless, Indy's heavy 11-personnel usage makes Downs a useful punt, even as a standalone play.
Texans Analysis: The Texans are home favorites. Thus, the game script should be ideal for the Texans to feature their talented second-year running back. Dameon Pierce averaged 72.2 rushing yards per game and scored four rushing touchdowns in his rookie campaign. He also earned PFF's highest Elusiveness grade among running backs who toted the rock at least 100 times in 2022.
The Texans should be able to lean on their running game from start to finish this week, providing fewer opportunities to their pass-catchers, but Nico Collins and Tank Dell have big-play potential. Collins had 11 targets, six receptions and 80 receiving yards in the opener. He also had the highest percentage of a team's air yards (64.72%) in Week 1, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Dell ran a route on only 25 of Houston's 54 dropbacks in Week 1. Yet, he had four targets, three receptions, 34 receiving yards and a reasonable 8.5-yard aDOT. Dell might move up the receiving depth chart this week after Noah Brown was placed on Injured Reserve (IR). Brown ran the most routes (41) among Houston's wide receivers in Week 1. John Metchie is trending toward making his NFL debut this week. So, it's unclear where he fits into the plans. But the last regime selected him, and Dell was this regime's pick.
Houston's defense is the cheapest viable defense on FD. Richardson was sacked four times and threw an interception at home in Week 1. Despite the rookie's flashes last week, he's an unfinished product and a road underdog this week.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: KC -3.5
Over/Under: 51.0 Points
Chiefs Analysis: This game has the only total over 50 points, and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are favored. That's an ideal starting point. However, the appeal of using Mahomes in DFS is tied directly to the availability of Travis Kelce, who appears to be trending in the right direction. Mahomes had an MVP campaign last year and is the best quarterback in the NFL. In addition, the Chiefs have led the NFL in PROE for three consecutive seasons entering this year.
Kelce is in his own class among tight ends. If the Chiefs are comfortable playing him, his ceiling is unmatched at tight end. He's essentially a high-end wideout with TE eligibility. Kelce was 10th in receptions per game (6.5), 11th in receiving yards per game (78.7) and second in receiving touchdowns (12) in 2022.
Jaguars Analysis: Calvin Ridley didn't have any rust to shake off in the opener and immediately resembled the hyper-productive wideout he was before his suspension. Ridley exploded for eight receptions, 101 receiving yards and one touchdown. Jacksonville's new alpha No. 1 wideout was targeted on 32.4% of his routes. Ridley was also used at every level of the field, getting two targets behind the line of scrimmage, three zero to nine yards downfield, five 10 to 19 yards downfield and one 20-plus yards downfield.
Trevor Lawrence was excellent down the stretch in his first year with Doug Pederson last year and didn't skip a beat in the opener. He completed 24 of 32 passes for 241 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Lawrence was PFF's fourth-ranked passer last week. The third-year quarterback isn't a total stiff, either. He rushed seven times for 21 yards last week and averaged 17.1 rushing yards per game and scored five rushing touchdowns in 2022.
Game: Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -2.5
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Bears Analysis: The hype train for Justin Fields took a nosedive off a cliff last week. He had a pitiful 2.5 Air Yards per attempt, took four sacks and threw one interception. He continues to hold the ball too long, and Chicago's offense is unusable in DFS until he puts things together as a passer.
Buccaneers Analysis: Tampa Bay's defense got off to a good start last week. The Bucs forced three turnovers, allowed only 17 points and had two sacks. And according to Pro-Football-Reference, they had the 11th-highest pressure rate (27.7%). Tampa Bay's ability to generate pressure should result in multiple sacks against a quarterback with a jaw-dropping 13.2 sack% in his career.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Spread: LAC -3.0
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: Justin Herbert and his two best pass-catchers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, are in a smash spot this week. According to Rotoviz's pace app, the Titans have the highest situation-neutral pass rate (63%) against them since last year. Tennessee is stout against the run but a tire fire against the pass, evidenced by allowing 305 passing yards to Derek Carr last week.
Herbert's passing production took a step back last year, but there were understandable reasons for the slide. Specifically, Herbert dealt with a rib injury, Allen and Williams missed games due to injury and Rashawn Slate was hurt nearly the entire year. There were only three games last season when Allen and Williams played more than 75% of the team's offensive snaps in the same contest.
Nonetheless, Herbert was third in passing yards per game (278.8) and tied for eighth in passing touchdowns (25) in 2022. Thus, he was a superb passer even in a down year by Herbert's standards. Herbert's ceiling this week is leading the main slate's passers in passing yards and touchdowns.
Allen and Williams were sharp when they played last year, and the former had six receptions, 76 receiving yards, two rush attempts and six rushing yards last week. Williams was briefly examined on the sideline after a brutal hit but had four receptions and 45 yards in Week 1.
They have a Charmin-soft matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Titans coughed up the fourth-most DK points per game (17.9) and the most FD points per game (14.4) to perimeter wideouts since last season. They also permitted the third-most DK points per game (24.6) and the third-most FD points per game (18.4) to slot wide receivers.
Titans Analysis: Derrick Henry can break this week's slate with a classic King Henry performance against a pitiful run defense. Miami's passing attack took a blowtorch to the Chargers last week. Yet, the Chargers were a dumpster fire against the run last year. Running backs steamrolled the Chargers for 5.6 yards per carry in 2022.
King Henry is a nightmare for LA's leaky run defense. The bulldozer running back was first in rush attempts, second in rushing yards per game (96.1) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (13) last season. He toted the rock 15 times for 63 yards and had two receptions for 56 yards last week. The most significant threat to Henry's outlook this week is Ryan Tannehill. If the veteran quarterback struggles mightily again this week, the game could get away from Henry. Otherwise, Henry will be force-fed the ball and make a run at leading the position in scoring.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is a leverage play off Henry for gamers stacking this contest. The second-year tight end didn't catch either of his targets last week but had promising underlying data. Okonkwo ran a route on 75% of Tennessee's dropbacks last week after serving as a part-time player last year. A prominent role might be all the hyper-efficient Okonkwo needs to break out. Among tight ends targeted at least 30 times in 2022, Okonkwo was first in Yards per Route Run (2.61 Y/RR) and had PFF's third-highest receiving grade. Finally, Durham Smythe hung three receptions for 44 yards on the Chargers last week.
Game: New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: NYG -4.5
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Giants Analysis: Nothing went right for the Giants last week when they vomited all over their cleats in primetime. Still, Darren Waller was targeted five times on 23 routes and had three receptions for 36 yards. The Giants should bounce back against an easier opponent, and Waller can ball out in a mouthwatering matchup. Tight ends have destroyed the Cardinals for the most DK and FD points per game since last year.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals are the cheapest viable defense on DK this week. They had six sacks and forced two turnovers against the Commanders last week. Conversely, the Giants allowed seven sacks and turned the ball over three times last week.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: SF -7.5
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is a do-it-all stud and showcased his well-rounded ability last week. CMC trounced the Steelers for 122 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also had three receptions for 17 receiving yards on five targets. CMC's a workhorse, and after he had 27 opportunities in a blowout last week, the potential for blowing out the Rams this week isn't concerning for his outlook.
Rams Analysis: Puka Nacua didn't practice on Thursday because of an oblique injury. So, gamers need to monitor the rookie's status. Sadly, this game is in the late window, creating the potential for uncertainty about Nacua's playing status when the early games start.
The rookie is a fun mid-salaried option after bursting onto the scene last week for 15 targets, 10 receptions and 119 receiving yards against the Seahawks. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception charted Nacua's first game, and the most eye-catching nugget in the review was when Harmon said, "(Robert) Woods in particular is just such a ridiculously unfair, clone-like comparison for Nacua."
Game: New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -9.0
Over/Under: 38.5 Points
Jets Analysis: If your family or close friends are Jets fans, hug them. They need it. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles on Monday night and is out for the season. Zach Wilson is starting for the Jets, and we've all seen what a train wreck he is on the gridiron.
Cowboys Analysis: Tony Pollard had 17 opportunities (14 rushes and three targets), 70 rushing yards, two receptions, 12 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 1's blowout of the Giants. Encouragingly, Pollard handled all six of Dallas's running back rushes inside the 10-yard line last week, producing 15 yards and two touchdowns.
Pollard bested a 60% snap share for the fourth time in his career last week. In those contests, he averaged 15.0 rushes, 84.25 rushing yards, 5.0 targets, 3.25 receptions, 28.5 receiving yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game. The game script should be perfect for another excellent outing from Pollard.
Dallas's defense was absurd in pitching a shutout against the Giants last week. They returned a blocked kick and an interception for touchdowns, recorded seven sacks and forced three turnovers. That's not a repeatable performance, is it? If anyone can make it happen again, Wilson can. Defense is volatile, and paying top dollar for even an elite defense like Dallas's is ill-advised in cash games. But gamers with extra cap space to work with can chase their ceiling.
Game: Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos
Spread: DEN -3.5
Over/Under: 39.0 Points
Commanders Analysis: Sam Howell wasn't sharp at home against a lesser opponent last week. Washington's implied total is only 17.75 points, telling the entire story. Gamers should fade the Commanders in DFS this week.
Broncos Analysis: Apparently, a ramp-up period wasn't needed for Javonte Williams. In Week 1, Williams had a 45% snap share, 13 rushes, 52 rushing yards, six targets, four receptions and five receiving yards. The 19 opportunities were nothing to sneeze at, and Williams's six targets were on just 12 routes. The Broncos are favorites. So, another 15-plus touches could be in the offing, thrusting Williams into the mix as a bargain option.
Howell was sacked six times in Week 1, and the Commanders had three turnovers, 248 yards and 21 points. However, Denver's defense isn't cheap, rendering them a GPP option in the same mold as Dallas's, albeit likely less popular, enhancing Denver's appeal in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
