NFL DFS Digest: Week 1 Picks & Predictions (Fantasy Football)

The first week of the NFL regular season means soft pricing at DraftKings and FanDuel. There’s also uncertainty about roles for some players and how coaching changes will impact teams. As a result, while there will be chalky selections, the percentage of rosters players are on might be slightly flatter than when the DFS providers tighten up their salaries for players.

Historically, I’ve cast a wide net for suggested players in Week 1. This season, I’ve narrowed the focus to a smaller player pool, offering a mix of players in obvious smash spots and worthy darts who should be contrarian.

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Week 1 Matchups

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Spread: CIN -2.5

Over/Under: 47.5 Points

Bengals Analysis: All signs point to Joe Burrow playing in Week 1, which is ideal for the offense's outlook. Nevertheless, it's not the optimal week to spend the high salaries Burrow and his stud pass-catchers require to be used in DFS.

Joe Mixon is an exciting option as a bell-cow running back. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Mixon set career-highs for receptions per game (4.3) and receiving yards per game (31.5) in 2022, despite Samaje Perine functioning as the team's passing-down back. Chris Evans will likely absorb some of Perine's role, but even a modest uptick in Mixon's use in those situations would be a boon for his DFS value.

Mixon can also pile up fantasy points as a runner in a potentially good matchup. According to The 33rd Team, Cleveland's run defense allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt (5.0) and the third-most rushing touchdowns (17) to running backs in 2022. The Browns added Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris to their defensive line to shore up their run defense. Still, they have a far climb to average. Moreover, with the Bengals favored, the game script could be good for Mixon's outlook as a ball carrier.

Cincinnati's defense is also alluring this week, especially on FD, where they're a screaming value. Deshaun Watson's 10.5% sack rate and 2.9% interception rate in 2022 would have ranked as the second-highest and tied for the sixth-worst marks among qualified quarterbacks. To add perspective to the second figure, Zach Wilson also had a 2.9% interception rate in 2022.

Browns Analysis: The camp reports haven't been rosy for Watson and Cleveland's passing attack. Most notably, Zac Jackson of The Athletic had unflattering things to say in the middle of August following a joint practice with the Eagles. The risk isn't worth the reward to use Cleveland's offensive players in DFS in a challenging matchup against an above-average defense.

Game: Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders

Spread: WSH -7.0

Over/Under: 38.0 Points

Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals are a trainwreck, and fading them entirely in Week 1 is reasonable. However, Washington is an appealing team to stack, and having a game-stack bring-back option is intriguing.

So, Michael Wilson has a strictly game-stacking appeal. The rookie wideout generated buzz at the Senior Bowl. Wilson was also the WR11 and 80th-ranked prospect on Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) Big Board and had a favorable mini-sample at Reception Perception. The rookie is a lousy pick at FD since their scoring heavily favors finding paydirt, and the Cardinals have a week-low implied total of 15.5 points. But, again, he's a game-stacking option as a bring-back for Washington double stacks at DK, where a modest line such as three receptions for 35 yards would be adequate at the minimum salary.

Commanders Analysis: The Commanders are a treasure trove of value DFS picks against the rebuilding Cardinals. It starts at the top with second-year quarterback Sam Howell.

Howell started only one game for the Commanders last year, but he enters this season on the heels of an encouraging preseason. According to PFF, Howell completed 28 of 37 pass attempts for 265 yards and three touchdowns, with one Big-Time Throw and zero Turnover-Worthy Plays. Howell also rushed for 25 yards.

Howell's a genuine dual-threat quarterback. His athletic testing was lackluster. Nonetheless, Howell rushed for 1,106 yards and 11 touchdowns on 76 attempts in his final collegiate season at UNC in 2021. Howell's underwhelming testing also didn't prevent him from rumbling for 35 yards and a touchdown in his only start last year against the Cowboys in Week 18. Howell isn't a risk-free pick, but he's the most attractive bargain option at DK and a usable option on FD.

Jahan Dotson is the best stacking option and will likely be a chalky selection in Week 1, especially if Terry McLaurin's toe injury keeps him out this week. Dotson ended his rookie campaign with a flurry. In the final five games in 2022, he had 32 targets, 21 receptions, 344 receiving yards, 16.4 yards per reception, 2.18 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and three touchdowns.

Dotson was also a terror for defenses in the red zone last year, securing five touchdowns on eight targets inside the 20-yard line. The pessimist will point to that rate being unsustainable, and the optimist will say his prowess in scoring territory should increase his volume in that area of the field.

Dotson also shined beyond the box score, grading exceptionally well in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception profile.

In addition, Dotson demonstrated chemistry and an ability to earn targets from Howell in the preseason.

Howell also targeted Cole Turner a handful of times in the preseason. Logan Thomas missed the preseason while tending to a calf injury but returned to full practice and isn't on the injury report. Will Turner's looks shift to Thomas against a defense that struggled with tight ends in 2022? Maybe.

Arizona coughed up the most receptions (101) and touchdown receptions (12) to tight ends in 2022 (new head coach Jonathan Gannon's defense in Philadelphia was mid-pack in receptions ceded to tight ends).

Thomas is only a contrarian GPP leverage play from the chalkier Dotson. Still, he has a bargain salary and a matchup-driven case for tournament usage.

Brian Robinson might also have a good matchup and should have an excellent game script. The Cardinals surrendered 4.7 yards per carry, 16 rushing touchdowns, the third-most receptions (101), the third-most receiving yards (810) and six touchdown receptions to running backs last season.

Understandably, Robinson got off to a slow start when he returned from a gunshot wound to his leg. He didn't crack 4.0 yards per attempt in his first seven games. Yet, in the final five games of Robinson's rookie campaign, he had 97 attempts for 435 rushing yards (4.5 yards per attempt) and chipped in five receptions for 53 receiving yards. If the Commanders steamroll the Cardinals, Robinson could push for 20 touches.

Washington's defense rounds out the suggested options from the Commanders for DFS this week. They're slightly pricey on FD and a steal on DK. They'll face Joshua Dobbs as the starting quarterback after he was acquired in a trade on August 24. The Commanders should tee off on the hastily prepared Dobbs.

Game: Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints

Spread: NO -3.0

Over/Under: 41.0 Points

Titans Analysis: The Titans have an ugly implied total (19.0 points) and are road underdogs. Derrick Henry can break projection models and flip a DFS slate on its head. Still, the betting info isn't ideal for King Henry's rushing outlook.

Saints Analysis: Juwan Johnson broke out last year and might still be ascending. He's a converted wide receiver with a nose for the end zone. Johnson's five receiving touchdowns inside the 20-yard line were tied for the second-most among tight ends last year on the 13th-most targets (11).

Thankfully, Johnson isn't a touchdown-or-bust tight end. He had at least 40 receiving yards eight times in 16 games last year. Johnson has also generated training camp buzz about his rapport with Derek Carr, and Carr has previously fed an athletic wideout-to-tight end with the Raiders. It's unfair to project Johnson for Darren Waller-like production.

However, the red carpet is rolled out for Johnson in Week 1. The Titans allowed the fourth-most receptions (97), the second-most receiving yards (1,126) and six touchdown receptions to tight ends in 2022. As a result, Johnson's the best bargain tight end, albeit priced a pinch above a punt-level pick.

Game: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: BAL -10.0

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

Texans Analysis: Houston's offensive line is a trainwreck, and rookie C.J. Stroud is making his first start in a regular season contest. It's a recipe for disaster for the Texans, reflected in the game's double-digit spread and Houston's paltry implied total of 16.75 points.

Ravens Analysis: Lamar Jackson always has the upside to break a slate. Nevertheless, tough cuts must be made when narrowing the suggested players, and there are reasons for pessimism about Jackson's outlook in Week 1.

First, the Texans are unlikely to push the Ravens into a shootout. Second, this will be Jackson's first game action in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken's offense. Third, this will be the dual-threat quarterback's first game action with Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers.

And speaking of Beckham and Flowers, it's unclear who will be on the field in Baltimore's two-wideout packages since Rashod Bateman is still in the mix. Moreover, opinions are mixed about which wide receiver is Jackson's No. 1 wideout, and Mark Andrews is the club's best passing-game weapon.

So, what about Andrews? He missed practice early in the week with a quad injury. Will they lean heavily on him in a projected blowout when they could ease him in and use talented second-year tight end Isaiah Likely to spell him more than usual? Andrews's upside is undeniable, but I'm not willing to spend his high salary with questions hanging over his head.

J.K. Dobbins has a compelling case for consideration. However, after a stop-and-start 2022 campaign in his return from knee surgery, will the Ravens overwork him when they can mix in Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in a probable blowout? Color me skeptical.

The Ravens can light up the Texans. Sadly, the production might be spread out too much for their players to provide DFS gamers with value.

Game: San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: SF -2.5

Over/Under: 41.0 Points

49ers Analysis: The betting info suggests this will be a defensive struggle. Still, Christian McCaffrey is a game-script-proof, do-it-all stud. CMC was eased into action the same week the 49ers acquired him last season but thrived in a robust role in subsequent games.

In 13 games after his debut with the 49ers, McCaffrey averaged 14.7 rush attempts per game, 72.8 rushing yards per game, 5.9 targets per game, 4.8 receptions per game and 38.5 receiving yards per game. CMC also scored 13 touchdowns and passed for one with San Francisco. McCaffrey's sky-high ceiling is worth chasing in GPPs at DK's point-per-reception (PPR) platform.

Steelers Analysis: The Steelers were arguably the stars of the preseason. Kenny Pickett was sharp, and offensive coordinator Matt Canada provided a reason to believe he might not be as incompetent as he's appeared to this point in the gig for the Steelers. Regardless, San Francisco's defense is a challenging draw in Week 1, and Pittsburgh's implied total is wretched. This isn't the week to invest in them in DFS.

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: JAC -5.0

Over/Under: 45.0 Points

Jaguars Analysis: Travis Etienne is a home-run hitter and should touch the ball plenty in a positive game script against the Colts. According to PFF, among 49 running backs who toted the rock at least 75 times in the regular and postseason combined, Etienne was eighth in yards per attempt (5.1), 18th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.11 YCO/A), fourth in missed tackles forced (64 MTF) and eighth in Breakaway% (38.3% of his designed runs went for 15-plus yards). Etienne's big-play ability gives him an escape hatch if rookie Tank Bigsby mixes in more than I anticipate in Week 1.

Trevor Lawrence made the second-year leap last season under the guidance of Doug Pederson. Furthermore, his play ascended after an inconsistent start.

From Week 12 (the week after Jacksonville's bye in 2022) through the Jaguars' elimination in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Lawrence earned PFF's sixth-highest passing grade and had the second-most Big-Time Throws (22) among 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. In addition, when tossing out the Week 16 contest Lawrence was lifted from early against the Texans, Lawrence averaged 256.9 passing yards per game and had 17 touchdowns in the other eight games after the bye. He can pick up where he left off in Week 1 against the Colts.

In fact, Lawrence's new No. 1 wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, might help the third-year quarterback take another step forward. Ridley hasn't played in a regular season game since October 10, 2021, but immediately turned heads in the preseason, demonstrating no rust en route to five receptions for 71 yards on five targets and just 16 routes.

Ridley was highly productive and efficient through his first three professional seasons before stumbling in a partial season in 2021. If the preseason is any indication, he's ready to recapture his early-career form, making him a bargain with a massive ceiling at DK and FD.

Defense is volatile and unpredictable, but the Jaguars should feast on rookie Anthony Richardson. Indy's rookie quarterback had a 3.3 TWP% for Florida last year. His college Turnover-Worthy-Play rate would have tied for the 12th-highest rate among NFL quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks last year, and it should grow, making the jump from college to the pros. Richardson also had a 7.9 TWP% on 33 dropbacks in the preseason.

Colts Analysis: Richardson had 455 dropbacks in his college career. His lack of experience should lead to growing pains out of the gate. Furthermore, first-round rookie quarterbacks are only 6-11 against the spread in their first start since 2018. Gamers might fall for the allure of Richardson's running ability, but his passing shortcomings are problematic for Indy's other players and cap the rookie's ceiling. As a result, fading him is a smart move.

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: MIN -6.0

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Buccaneers Analysis: Rachaad White will get a crack at serving as Tampa Bay's workhorse running back after a mediocre rookie season. White played over 60% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps twice last year and handled a massive workload. In those games, he had 36 rushes for 169 rushing yards. White also had 17 targets, 15 receptions, 86 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Volume is the king at running back, and White should have it in spades, elevating his floor. However, White's clearest path to hitting his ceiling is as a receiver, and a negative game script could force him to show off his receiving chops. Among 44 running backs targeted at least 30 times in the regular season and postseason last year, White had PFF's 10th-highest receiving grade.

Vikings Analysis: Justin Jefferson was a world-beater last season. He was sixth in target share (26.7%) and third in Intended Air Yards (1,885) in the regular season. Additionally, among 84 wideouts targeted at least 50 times in the regular and postseason, he was fourth in PFF receiving grade and second in Yards per Route Run (2.55 Y/RR). Jefferson converted his elite underlying data into the second-most receptions per game (7.5), the most receiving yards per game (106.4) and eight touchdowns. Minnesota's stud wideout has a perfect blend of a high floor and ceiling, making him arguably the top pick in all game types this week.

Game: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: ATL -3.5

Over/Under: 39.5 Points

Panthers Analysis: The Panthers picked Jonathan Mingo with the 39th pick in this year's NFL Draft, making him the fifth wideout selected. The big-bodied rookie has an eye-catching athletic profile that belies his underwhelming college production. Carolina needs him to play immediately with a banged-up receiving corps. Fortunately, Mingo was on the same page as fellow rookie Bryce Young in the preseason, earning the second-most targets on Young's pass attempts.

Mingo's not a worthwhile choice on FD. But he's a nifty punt for gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs at DK.

Falcons Analysis: According to the nfelo app, the Falcons had the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) last season. Atlanta's run-heavy tendencies damper any enthusiasm for using young pass-catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

On the other hand, the approach and Atlanta's elite run-blocking offensive line are superb for Bijan Robinson's outlook in Week 1. PFF graded Atlanta first in run blocking last year. They paved the way to efficient seasons for all of Atlanta's running backs last year. Nevertheless, the Falcons were compelled to spend the eighth pick in this year's NFL Draft to add Robinson's dynamism to the backfield.

Among FBS running backs with at least 75 rush attempts last season, Robinson had PFF's second-highest run grade and was sixth in rushing yards (1,575), tied for 14th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.17 YCO/A), first in missed tackles forced (104 MTF) and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (18). He also had 19 receptions for 314 receiving yards, 1.52 Y/RR and two touchdown receptions.

Robinson has the skill set to be a workhorse for the Falcons, but it remains to be seen how they'll split up backfield opportunities between Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, creating some risk he'll fall short of the production needed to pay off at his hefty salary. Furthermore, his salary is more inviting at FD than at DK, as there's a more significant gap between Robinson's salary and established do-it-all studs at the position at the former.

Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Panthers

Spread: PHI -4.0

Over/Under: 45.0 Points

Eagles Analysis: The Eagles are favored and have a butt-kicking offensive line. They were third in PFF's run-blocking grade in 2022. How will they split up a post-Miles Sanders backfield? D'Andre Swift was held out of the team's preseason finale, indicating he's ahead of fellow offseason addition Rashaad Penny.

Still, both backs have previously exhibited the caliber of explosiveness to provide value to DFS gamers at their value salaries, even in a committee. Among running backs with at least 50 rush attempts last season, Penny was first in Breakaway% (50.9 BAY%), and Swift was seventh (40.2 BAY%). The role uncertainty for Philadelphia's running backs should depress the percentage of rosters they're on, enhancing the appeal of swinging for the fences with them in GPPs.

But since this game is in the late window, gamers using Penny must keep tabs on Philadelphia's inactives since there's a possibility he's a healthy inactive in favor of Swift and Philadelphia's incumbent running backs, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Since I'm including Penny as a suggested player in this piece, I expect the Eagles to keep all four running backs active or make Scott inactive. And in what might be a hot-hand backfield, Penny has previously demonstrated the ability to get white-hot.

Patriots Analysis: New England's offense should improve in 2023 with Bill O'Brien as the club's offensive coordinator. The upgrade from last year's unserious combination of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to O'Brien can't be overstated. Unfortunately, the Eagles are a brutal matchup for their offense this week. Philadelphia allowed the fewest yards per play (4.8), tied for the fourth-most turnovers forced (27) and allowed the eighth-fewest points per game (20.2) last season. Gamers should fade the Patriots in DFS this week.

Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Spread: DEN -3.5

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Raiders Analysis: The Raiders have the cheapest viable defense in DFS this week. Russell Wilson was a mess last year, sporting the second-highest sack rate (10.2%) and 14th-highest interception rate (2.3%) among qualified quarterbacks. Even if Wilson turns his nosedive around under Sean Payton, the veteran quarterback has routinely taken sacks at a high rate, owning an 8.5% sack rate in his career.

Broncos Analysis: Marvin Mims wasn't merely efficient in college. He had a historically efficient season in 2020 when adjusting for his age.

Mims was a home-run hitter at Oklahoma, averaging 20.8 yards per reception and 2.70 Y/RR on 86 receptions in his final two collegiate seasons. Payton and the Broncos thought highly enough of him to trade up in the second round and pick him this year despite lacking draft capital.

The rookie immediately demonstrated his elite field-stretching ability in the preseason, reeling in three receptions for 59 yards (19.7 yards per reception and 2.27 Y/RR). One of his receptions was a highlight-reel deep ball against the Rams.

Mims's big-play potential makes him a fun dart throw, and he should have an immediate path to playing time in Denver's thin wide receiver's room.

Game: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: LAC -3.0

Over/Under: 51.0 Points

Dolphins Analysis: Raheem Mostert enjoyed a stellar first year in Miami, continuing his efficient running in Mike McDaniel's offense. He averaged 55.2 rushing yards per game and gashed defenses for 4.9 yards per attempt.

He was inconsistent down the stretch, sharing time with another former 49er and in-season trade acquisition Jeff Wilson. Mostert won't have to contend with Wilson siphoning work until Week 5 at the earliest since Wilson is on Injured Reserve (IR).

Mostert should handle the majority of Miami's work. In eight games Mostert exceeded 60% of Miami's offensive snaps last season, he averaged 14.0 rush attempts per game, 72.1 rushing yards per game, 2.1 targets per game, 1.4 receptions per game and 10.0 receiving yards per game. Mostert also scored two touchdowns in those games.

He can come out of the gates hot in a cushy matchup. The Chargers permitted 127 rushing yards per game at an eye-popping 5.6 yards per attempt to running backs last season. Mostert will almost assuredly be chalky, but he's the most exciting value pick at running back by a wide margin.

Tyreek Hill had elite underlying stats and the surface stats to match. Cheetah was third in target share (28.3%) and first in Intended Air Yards (2,221) in the regular season, and first in PFF receiving grade and Yards per Route Run (3.07 Y/RR) among wideouts targeted at least 50 times, including the postseason. As a result, Hill was fifth in receptions per game (7.0), second in receiving yards per game (100.6) and had eight touchdowns (one touchdown was a fumble scoop-and-score play against the Chargers last season).

Chargers Analysis: The Chargers have a blistering implied total and should play fast under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Injuries hampered Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last year. Fortunately, they're each healthy entering this season.

Herbert is just one year removed from finishing second in passing yards per game (294.9) and third in passing touchdowns (38). Armed with his trusty one-two punch, supremely talented pass-catching running back Austin Ekeler and other rock-solid ancillary pieces, Herbert should shred Miami's unimposing, Jalen Ramsey-less secondary.

Allen and Williams can both thrive in an uptempo, pass-happy, highly concentrated passing attack. Even while navigating missed contests because of injuries last year, Allen and Williams were superb. According to PFF, Allen was 12th in PFF receiving grade and 16th in Yards per Route Run (2.02) among wideouts, and Williams was 20th in PFF receiving grade and tied for 20th in Yards per Route Run (1.93). Gamers can use them as one-offs, stack them with Herbert individually or double-stack them with Herbert as part of a game stack in a projected shootout.

Game: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Spread: CHI -1.0

Over/Under: 43.0 Points

Packers Analysis: Christian Watson was in the original rough draft of featured players before a hamstring injury popped up on Wednesday, sidelining him for practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Unless he returns to practice fully on Friday, he's unusable.

And if he's out, Jayden Reed could play in two wide receiver sets instead of being confined to just the slot in three-wideout packages. Reed played the slot and perimeter in college. Thus, he should have the alignment versatility not to be overwhelmed if he's kicked outside.

Reed also had an encouraging preseason. He was targeted on 25.9% of his routes and had four receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was a beautiful ball thrown by Jordan Love.

Reed is in the punt mix if Watson or Romeo Doubs are sidelined this week.

Luke Musgrave is the most desirable punt at tight end this week. Musgrave had outstanding route participation and a stellar target share on Love's dropbacks in the preseason.

That's more than gamers should be able to expect from a punt-salaried tight end.

Bears Analysis: Justin Fields gashed defenses for 76.2 rushing yards per game, 7.1 yards per attempt and eight rushing touchdowns last year. He exploded for over 130 rushing yards three times in 15 games, bested 80 seven times and cleared 45 in 12 contests. Even if Fields's passing remains a work in progress, his rushing potential gives him a high floor and sky-high ceiling.

He could also clear the low bar he's previously set as a passer with a new No. 1 wideout. The team acquired DJ Moore as part of a massive haul for the first pick in this year's NFL Draft, and Moore is an enormous upgrade on anyone Fields has thrown to in the NFL.

Additionally, Moore can beat the Packers after the catch, in the intermediate area or deep. He opened his career as a YAC-monster before his average depth of target climbed to a career-high 14.0 yards downfield last season. Moore showed he still has yards-after-the-catch juice in his bag in the preseason.

However, he also had 14 receptions for 436 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 30 targets that traveled 20-plus yards last season, making him an ideal stylistic fit for when Fields extends plays with his mobility.

Game: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: SEA -5.5

Over/Under: 46.0 Points

Rams Analysis: Tyler Higbee doesn't have jaw-dropping athleticism that elicits excitement like the new wave of young tight ends in the NFL. Regardless, he's a lynchpin in LA's Cooper Kupp-less offense.

Higbee was 21st in target share (20.3%) in 2022. In addition, Higbee was targeted on 23.9% of his routes and had 40 receptions (4.0 per game) for 345 receiving yards (34.5 per game) and three touchdown receptions in 10 games without Kupp last year. Higbee might have done more with his role if Matthew Stafford was healthy during that stretch. Alas, Stafford played in only one of those 10 games.

Higbee has an ideal matchup to start his 2023 campaign. Tight ends torched the Seahawks for the most yards per reception (14.1), the 15th-most receptions (79), the second-most receiving yards (1,115) and tied for the seventh-most touchdown receptions (eight) last season.

Seahawks Analysis: Geno Smith earned the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award last year for a breakout campaign. He was 10th in passing yards per game (251.9), fourth in passing touchdowns (30) and first in completion percentage (69.8%) among qualified quarterbacks. In two contests against the Rams, he completed 47 of 70 pass attempts for 580 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.

He can build on those efforts against an LA defense that's young and bereft of blue-chip players not named Aaron Donald.

Additionally, they were giving to perimeter wideouts last year, surrendering the second-most DK and the fourth-most FD points per game to them in 2022.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can smash this week, but the former ranks slightly ahead of the latter. Metcalf was tied for 14th in target share (24.1%) and 11th in Intended Air Yards (1,598) in 2022. He was also 22nd in PFF's receiving grade and tied for 20th in Yards per Route Run (1.93 Y/RR) among wideouts targeted at least 50 times through the postseason.

Lockett was 24th in target share (20.0%) and 22nd in Intended Air Yards (1,255). Seattle's No. 2 wideout was also 25th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in Yards Per Route Run (1.89 Y/RR).

Metcalf narrowly bested Lockett across all four categories. The bigger Metcalf dominated Lockett in usage in the red zone, though. Metcalf had 27 targets inside the 20-yard line, and Lockett had nine last season. Lockett can score a long touchdown, but Metcalf's elite use in the red zone gives him a higher probability of scoring touchdowns this week. Still, Metcalf and Lockett are excellent DFS selections as one-offs, individual stacking options with Smith, single game-stacking choices with Higbee or double-stack pieces with Smith.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.