Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small, featuring six games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The touted picks in this piece are whittled to two starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Usually, three starting pitchers would be featured in a six-game MLB DFS slate primer. However, the blemishes for most of the pitchers were too significant to overlook. As a result, the two pitchers on the table are the only starters suggested for tonight's slate.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. STL
Strider is cruising into tonight's start. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 29.2 innings, he's had a 3.34 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 3.53 SIERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.6 BB%, 32.2 K%, 33.5 CSW%, 122 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 107 Pitching+.
The righty also has eye-popping underlying stats at home this season, albeit with an unlucky 3.79 ERA. In 78.1 innings at home this year, Strider has a 2.25 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 5.8 BB% and 41.8 K%.
The matchup is mid-pack for Strider tonight, and the betting info is outstanding. According to Betting Pros, the Braves are -290, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs. DET
Schmidt has done his best work at home this year. In 71.1 innings at home this season, Schmidt has a 3.91 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 5.3 BB% and 22.7 K%.
He can treat the home crowd to another stellar start tonight in a cushy matchup. The Tigers are 27th in wRC+ (85) and have a 24.8 K% versus righties in 2023. Detroit is 26th in wRC+ (84) and has a 23.8 K% on the road. And while they're a slightly intimidating 12th in wRC+ (104) in the previous 30 days, they have a 27.4 K%. Finally, the Yankees are -170, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Mets knocked the Nationals around last night and can do the same again tonight. New York is tied for 11th in wRC+ (104) versus righties in 2023. They're tied for ninth in wRC+ (109) in the previous 30 days. The Mets are also tied for 15th in wRC+ (97) on the road this year. So, they have an average or slightly better offense by the applicable splits for tonight's contest.
They can play to the above-average range in a plus matchup. Joan Adon has a 5.90 ERA, 4.73 xERA and 4.94 xFIP in seven appearances (five starts) for the Nationals this season. He's also struggled mightily against lefties, ceding a .360 wOBA to them. So, New York's lefties are the most appealing options to stack.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/ATL -290
To completely stack the Braves and use Strider is nearly impossible. Still, mini-stacking a few players or stacking the Braves with non-Strider pitchers is appealing. The Braves are first in wRC+ (120) and ISO (.219) versus righties in 2023. Atlanta is fourth in wRC+ (129) and second in ISO (.210) in the previous 30 days. In addition, they're first in wRC+ (128) and ISO (.235) at home this year.
The matchup is also mouthwatering. Dakota Hudson has a 5.40 ERA and 6.15 xFIP in 16.2 innings on the road this year. He had a 5.78 ERA and 4.98 xFIP in 76.1 innings on the road in 2022, too. So, this year's struggles aren't a blip on the radar for Hudson.
- In 749 plate appearances against righties at home since 2021, Austin Riley has had a .352 OBP, .246 ISO and 138 wRC+.
- Marcell Ozuna has a .345 OBP, .273 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 194 plate appearances against righties at home this year.
- Brandon Nimmo smashed two homers last night, bringing his season total to 22. He also has a .360 OBP and 128 wRC+.
- DJ Stewart has hit nine homers with a .341 OBP, .373 ISO and 168 wRC+ in 92 plate appearances against righties this season.
- According to MiLB.com, Ronny Mauricio had 20 homers and a .871 OPS in 380 at-bats against righties in Triple-A this year.
- In 291 plate appearances against righties this year, Daniel Vogelbach has hit 13 homers with a .347 OBP, .184 ISO and 117 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Mets have the best blend of upside and affordable hitters who fit under the cap with Strider, making them the top stack tonight. Still, mini-stacking and using one-offs from the Braves is an excellent choice, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
