Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is different between DFS providers. It has 10 games and starts at 6:35 pm ET on FanDuel and features seven games starting at 7:07 pm ET at DraftKings. Additionally, FD doesn’t include the late game between the Dodgers and Padres. The picks suggested for today are whittled to three starting pitchers, four studs and two values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitchers aren't flawless on this slate. Nevertheless, the three on the table have intriguing profiles and palatable salaries. The top option has pitched the best of the three, making him the ideal pick in all game types at DK. The second and third pitchers are the best SP2s at DK in cash games and GPPs, respectively. They're also stellar selections at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Ryan Pepiot (LAD) vs. SD
Pepiot has shined for the Dodgers this year, with the underlying data to support his surface starts. According to FanGraphs, in four appearances (two starts) spanning 21.0 innings, he's had a 0.86 ERA, 2.72 xERA, 3.88 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA, 0.52 WHIP, 2.7 BB%, 22.7 K%, 30.4 CSW%, 104 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 105 Pitching+.
The matchup isn't great for him tonight. Yet, it's not terrifying, either. The Padres are tied for 15th in wRC+ (102) and have a 21.2 K% versus righties. San Diego is also tied for 11th in wRC+ (99) and has a 22.0 K% on the road this year. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -130, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. OAK
Brown has been crushed for an 8.50 ERA in his previous five appearances (four starts), totaling only 18.0 innings. However, his 4.44 xFIP and 4.26 SIERA were more palatable. Brown's 12.5 BB% was troubling, but his bloated ERA primarily resulted from a .429 BABIP and 51.9 LOB%. The young righty's 28.4 K% and 27.8 CSW% were stellar.
The underlying data is promising for a turnaround, and the matchup is good tonight. The Athletics are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.1 K% versus righties in 2023. Oakland is also tied for 21st in wRC+ (90) and has a 24.0 K% on the road this year. Moreover, the Astros are -278, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Thus, the betting info is supportive of using Brown in DFS.
GPP Recommendation:
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. TEX
Kikuchi has pitched well this year. He's also in good form. In the lefty's previous five starts spanning 26.1 innings, he's had a 3.76 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.5 K%, 28.4 CSW%, 102 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 102 Pitching+.
The knock for Kikuchi tonight is his matchup. The Rangers are third in wRC+ (120) versus lefties in 2023. They're also ninth in wRC+ (104) on the road this season. However, Texas is just 14th in wRC+ (102) and has a 22.5 K% in the previous 30 days. The betting info also isn't bad. The Blue Jays are -120, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Astros have an explosive offense. They're tied for ninth in wRC+ (105) versus righties in 2023. Houston is 16th in wRC+ (103) at home this year. Still, their play lately and the matchup earns them the nod as the best stack. The Astros are first in wRC+ (138) and fourth in ISO (.211) in the previous 30 days.
In addition, Paul Blackburn has a 4.23 ERA and 4.45 xFIP on the road, with a .364 wOBA yielded to batters. The Athletics have a dreadful bullpen, too. Oakland's relievers have the third-highest ERA this season.
- Home (Rogers Centre)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/TOR -120
Toronto has an offense that's comfortably above average. The Blue Jays are sixth in wRC+ (116) versus lefties in 2023. They're ninth in wRC+ (117) in the previous 30 days. Toronto is also tied for 13th in wRC+ (105) at home this year.
The matchup against Jordan Montgomery is only mediocre. He has a 3.62 ERA, 4.20 xERA and 4.04 xFIP in 28 starts spanning 161.2 innings this season. But when he gives the ball to the bullpen, it's a plus for Toronto's offense. Texas's relievers have the fifth-highest ERA this season.
- In 275 plate appearances against righties this year, Yordan Alvarez has 20 homers, a .425 OBP, .317 ISO and 182 wRC+.
- Bo Bichette has hit 17 homers with a .374 OBP, .212 ISO and 149 wRC+ in 377 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 42 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie season, Davis Schneider has swatted five homers with a .500 OBP, .531 ISO and 260 wRC+.
- Triston Casas has mashed 20 taters with a .363 OBP, .225 ISO and 128 wRC+ in 395 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 318 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Evan Longoria has ripped 17 bombs, with a .358 OBP, .234 ISO and 135 wRC+.
- Joey Wiemer has seven homers, a .308 OBP, .259 ISO and 123 wRC+ in 117 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie campaign.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Astros and the Blue Jays are the best stacks on tonight's medium-sized slate. They're not cheap stacks, though. So, Longo and Wiemer are helpful punts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
