Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has six games and starts at 6:40 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks in today’s primer are reduced to two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Saving money for a high-salaried stack is paramount tonight. Fortunately, the two pitchers suggested have medium to high-value salaries. The top pitcher offers gamers a ton of bang for their buck. The second-ranked pitcher has intriguing recent stats and a cushy matchup tonight.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Ryan Pepiot (LAD) at MIA
Pepiot's been outstanding for the Dodgers in three appearances (two multi-inning relief appearances and one start) spanning 14.0 innings this season. Per FanGraphs, he has a 1.29 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 3.66 xFIP, 3.23 SIERA, 0.71 WHIP, 3.8 BB%, 26.4 K%, 31.1 CSW%, 103 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 101 Pitching+.
Pepiot should strut his stuff in a good matchup tonight. The Marlins are tied for 21st in wRC+ (90) and have a 21.1 K% versus righties in 2023. Miami is 23rd in wRC+ (91) and has a 20.7 K% in the previous 90 days. They're also 19th in wRC+ (98) and have a 19.8 K% at home this year. In addition, per Betting Pros, the Dodgers are -125, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. DET
Rodon's stats in his previous three starts were a mixed bag. In those starts, he had a 2.87 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, 5.43 SIERA, 4.8 BB%, 19.0 K%, 1.02 WHIP, 22,5 CSW% (13.1 SwStr%), 117 Stuff+, 98 Location+ and 104 Pitching+. Obviously, Rodon's ERA estimators were ugly. And his CSW% was lousy. Yet, his pitch modeling was outstanding, and his swinging-strike percentage was superb.
The good should outweigh the bad in tonight's start. The Tigers are 26th in wRC+ (88) and have a 22.3 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're tied for 13th in wRC+ (100) but have a 27.2 K% in the previous 30 days. Detroit is also tied for 26th in wRC+ (84) and has a 23.9 K% on the road this year. Moreover, the Yankees are -164, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves are a well-oiled machine. They're first in wRC+ (120) and ISO (.221) versus righties in 2023. Atlanta is fourth in wRC+ (131) and second in ISO (.219) in the previous 30 days. This year, the Braves are also first in wRC+ (128) and ISO (.237) at home.
They can pad their stats tonight against a washed-up pitcher with no business near a rotation. Adam Wainwright is dragging himself across the finish line this season. In his previous four starts lasting only 17.2 innings, he's had a 9.17 ERA, 6.40 xFIP, 1.98 WHIP, 8.1 BB%, 7.0 K% and 2.0 SwStr%. Waino's inability to miss bats will bite him in the butt tonight.
- Matt Olson has 23 homers, a .404 OBP, .391 ISO and 182 wRC+ versus righties at home this year.
- In 249 plate appearances against righties at home this season, Austin Riley has 15 homers, a .365 OBP, .271 ISO and 149 wRC+.
- Marcell Ozuna has 14 homers, a .342 OBP, .282 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 199 plate appearances versus righties at home this year.
- In 441 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Chris Taylor has hit 17 homers with a .327 OBP, .212 ISO and 110 wRC+.
- Bo Naylor has eight homers, a .333 OBP, .258 ISO and 126 wRC+ in 144 plate appearances against righties in 2023.
- Josh Rojas's bat has come to life since the Mariners traded for him. In 84 plate appearances for Seattle, he has three homers, four stolen bases, a .333 OBP, .154 ISO and 115 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves will be chalky and should smash Wainwright tonight, making them the best source of hitters. Their high salaries will require punts. Thankfully, Taylor, Naylor and Rojas are stellar selections.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
