Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small. It has five games starting at 7:07 pm ET on DraftKings and four on FanDuel. The suggested picks are reduced to two starting pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Some quality pitchers are toeing the slab tonight, but the best pitchers have either challenging matchups, pitch in hitter-friendly ballparks or both. So, all of them are at least moderately risky. Still, the top pitcher tonight has jaw-dropping home splits and stellar betting info. The other suggested pitcher is a matchup-driven pick.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs. TB
Bradish has pitched out of his mind at home this year. According to FanGraphs, in 59.2 innings at home this season, Bradish has a 2.26 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 6.9 BB% and 22.4 K%.
The Rays could challenge him tonight. Nonetheless, they have a 23.2 K% versus righties in 2023, a 22.6 K% on the road and a 24.2 K% in the previous 30 days. Tampa Bay strikes out enough to give Bradish some wiggle room for error. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Orioles are -142, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Kenta Maeda (MIN) at CWS
Maeda has been shaky lately, putting it lightly. In his previous five starts lasting 23.1 innings, he's had a 6.56 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, 6.5 BB%, 18.5 K%, 27.5 CSW%, 105 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 100 Pitching+. Maeda's ERA was ugly, and his strikeout rate wasn't DFS-friendly. However, his walk rate, plate discipline numbers and pitch modeling were stellar.
The good could shine through for Maeda tonight in a plus matchup. The White Sox are 29th in wRC+ (83) and have a 23.1 K% versus righties in 2023. They're 24th in wRC+ (88) and have a 22.4 K% in the previous 30 days. Finally, Chicago is 29th in wRC+ (86) and has a 22.6 K% at home this season.
Top Lineup Stack
The White Sox haven't announced a starter, but Roster Resource and DK project Jose Urena to get the ball. The veteran righty is the human version of a punching bag. In six starts totaling 22.1 innings, he has an 8.46 ERA, 8.35 xERA and 6.63 xFIP this season. Urena has yielded 3.63 HR/9 and struggled against all hitters, allowing a .511 wOBA to lefties and a .438 wOBA to righties.
Minnesota's offense is equipped to smash. They're fifth in wRC+ (109) and sixth in ISO (.187) versus righties in 2023. The Twins are tied for seventh in wRC+ (125) and sixth in ISO (.203) in the previous 30 days. Finally, they're tied for 15th in wRC+ (97) on the road this season.
- In 190 plate appearances against righties at home this year, Adley Rutschman has nine homers, a .400 OBP, .210 ISO and 157 wRC+.
- Gunnar Henderson has hit eight bombs with a .353 OBP, .277 ISO and 149 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
- In 155 plate appearances against righties this year, Royce Lewis has hit 11 homers with a .355 OBP, .264 ISO and 153 wRC+.
- Edouard Julien has mashed 12 taters with a .407 OBP, .213 ISO and 152 wRC+ in 296 plate appearances against righties in his rookie campaign.
- In 220 plate appearances against righties this season, Alex Kirilloff has a .382 OBP and 137 wRC+.
- Matt Wallner has clubbed nine dongs with a .390 OBP, .271 ISO and 153 wRC+ in 159 plate appearances against righties this season.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins are the no-brainer best source for hitters tonight. They'll be chalky. Yet, they're good chalk. The Orioles aren't highlighted as a stack, but mini-stacking players such as Rutschman, Henderson and others from Baltimore is a nifty move.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
