MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (9/10)

Man, it’s sad to see the prize pools dwindle like this! It’s the opening weekend of the NFL, and these MLB prize pools are going to continue to plummet. That doesn’t mean we’re going to stop grinding, though, because we’re down to the final three weeks of the season. That’s hard to believe, but we’re looking to end the season strong.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

We had an ugly slate of pitchers yesterday, but this one is much better. We don’t have too many aces toeing the rubber, but there are plenty of good options in good spots. Our first option is a former Cy Young winner in the NL, so let’s start there!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. NYY

Burnes got off to a rough start this season, but he’s been cruising recently. The right-hander has allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last 12 starts, posting a 3.05 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 rate in that span. That even includes a few duds, but we don’t expect one of those against New York. The Yankees have the lowest batting average since the All-Star break and are much worse against righties.

Zach Eflin (TB) vs. SEA

Eflin was Tampa’s richest signing in the offseason, but he’s proven to be worth every penny. The righty has allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of 27 starts this year, totaling a 3.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He’s also scored at least 27 FanDuel points in all but six starts, generating a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home over the last three years. Seattle has been scary recently, but they’re not even projected to score four runs in this spot.

GPP Recommendations:

Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. NYM

Lopez had one terrible month in the middle of the season, but he’s been an ace outside of that. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in 20 0f 28 starts this year, generating a 1.89 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 rate in those 20 outings. New York would’ve been a scary matchup in April, but this roster is a shell of the one that we saw back then. That’s why he’s a -200 favorite!

Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. KC

Berrios had had a bounceback season in Toronto, tallying a 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. That’s the top prospect we saw in Minnesota, and it looks even better since Berrios has scored at least 25 FanDuel points in 14 of his last 21 starts. That should be easy to reach against Kansas City, with the Royals ranked bottom five in OBP, runs scored, wOBA, OPS, and xwOBA. Not to mention, Jose enters this matchup as a -190 favorite!

Top Lineup Stacks

Houston Astros (vs. Rich Hill)

• Home (Minute Maid Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/HOU -190

The Astros have been running rampant recently, scoring the most runs in baseball over the last month. That’s scary because they’re at full health for the first time all season, and they send out one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. We don’t expect a journeyman like Rich Hill to slow them down, amassing a 5.60 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this year.

Texas Rangers (vs. Kyle Waldichuk)

• Home (Globe Life Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/TEX -250

The Rangers have been freefalling down the standings in the second half, but this is still one of the best offenses in baseball. Texas ranks third in SLG, OBP, and runs scored. That’s bad news for the worst pitching staff in baseball, with Oakland ranked last in ERA and WHIP. Kyle Waldichuk is a woeful pitcher, too, accruing a 5.63 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.

Core Studs

• Freeman should get more talk as a potential MVP candidate. The All-Star has a .334 AVG, .411 OBP, .572 SLG and .983 OPS for the year. Freeman also has a 1.050 OPS against right-handers and is the safest play for LA with Mookie expected to miss this game.
• The Cubs have been the biggest surprise in baseball, and Bellinger is a major reason why. The former MVP has 24 homers and 19 steals, thanks to his .320 AVG, .552 SLG and .916 OPS. He’s been even better in the second half, totaling a 1.030 OPS across his last 58 outings. He’s also been traditionally better against right-handers, which is awesome since he faces a rookie with a 6.27 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
• Altuve is feeling it right now. The perennial All-star had a three-homer game earlier in the week and now has a 1.210 OPS across his last 10 outings. That’s one of the best stretches in a potential Hall-of-Fame career, and he’s also flirting with a 1.000 OPS against left-handers over the last two years. If we’re stacking against Hill, Altuve needs to be the first player in our lineup!
• If we have Mookie in here, we have to include Acuna! He’s my bet to win NL MVP, collecting 34 homers, 63 steals, and 125 runs scored. Those are all some of the highest totals in the league, making him a safe play against anyone. We’re not so sure who Pittsburgh will send out here, but it doesn’t really matter since they don’t have anyone we’re worried about.

Value Plays/Punts

• Gorman is quietly having a sensational season in St. Louis. He’s up to 27 homers on the year, accumulating a 1.750 OPS across his last three outings. That scorching form makes him an easy play in Great American Ballpark, especially since he faces a righty who has one of the worst home run rates since his call-up.
• Polanco is always underrated, and he’s been mashing in Minny for years. His most recent form is what has us really encouraged, accruing a .416 OBP, .573 SLG, and .989 OPS across his last 23 games. He’s also been rocking righties throughout his career and shouldn’t have any issues against Tylor Megill‘s 5.28 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.
• Burger has been handing out whoppers since his trade to Miami, providing a .386 OBP, .554 SLG, and .940 OPS across his last 24 outings. That looks even better when looking at his superb splits, sporting a .615 SLG and .940 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. Ranger Suarez has been struggling recently, too, compiling a 4.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP across his last nine starts.
• We rarely recommend catchers, but it’s tough to fade Garver right now with the way he’s swinging the lumber. The battery-mate has 12 homers over his last 35 games, posting a .424 OBP, .656 SLG, and 1.079 OPS in that span. Those averages against a lefty are amazing for Garver because he’s got a .987 OPS against lefties since the start of last season.
• It’s been a nightmare season for Abreu, but it’s wild to see him in this price range. This guy is usually $1,500 more on both sites, and a recent surge has us ready to hop back on the train. The former All-Star has a .915 OPS across his last 11 games. He’s also slaughtered southpaws and needs to be rostered if we’re going to stack the Stros against Rich Hill.

Hitter Strategy

This is a fascinating slate from a lineup construction standpoint. While we don’t have many great pitchers, we don’t have many teams we want to stack either. There are plenty of hitters in premium matchups, though, and it should be easy to build lineups since we’re not going to pay up for pitchers. That has us wanting to use some of the high-end stud bats and then build from there!

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.