It’s a matinee MLB DFS main slate starting at 2:10 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s also a small slate, featuring only seven games. The suggested picks are narrowed to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three values and three punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher is a no-brainer selection as a screaming value at both DFS providers. The second-ranked option narrowly edged out the third-ranked choice. However, both have dreamy matchups and a desirable high floor and ceiling blend.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Cole Ragans (KC) vs. CWS
Ragans is on fire. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 30.2 innings, he's had a 2.05 ERA, 2.13 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, 37.5 K%, 31.6 CSW%, 104 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 106 Pitching+. The Royals have had the Midas touch with Ragans, unlocking an ace-like pitcher.
He can stay hot in a cushy matchup today. The White Sox are tied for 18th in wRC+ (95) and have a 24.6 K% against lefties in 2023. Chicago is tied for 21st in wRC+ (93) and has a 23.2 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also 26th in wRC+ (85) and have a 24.5 K% on the road this year.
Additionally, the betting info is rock-solid. According to Betting Pros, the Royals are -155, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Gamers are getting a ton of bang for their buck by using Ragans on their DFS teams.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs. COL
Kelly has decent numbers lately. However, his superb numbers at home are more impressive. In 73.0 innings at home this season, Kelly has a 2.96 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 10.4 BB% and 29.1 K%. The righty should carve up the lowly Rockies.
Colorado is tied for 29th in wRC+ (82) and has a 24.8 K% versus righties in 2023. They're 30th in wRC+ (71) and have a 27.6 K% in the previous 30 days. The Rockies are also 29th in wRC+ (77) and have a 27.4 K% on the road this season. They're a pushover.
As a result, the betting info is ideal. The Diamondbacks are -250, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Justin Steele (CHC) vs. SF
Steele is in excellent form. In his last five starts spanning 28.1 innings, he's had a 3.18 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 28.7 K%, 26.2 CSW%, 98 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. The lefty is also sharp at home. In 84.0 innings at home in 2023, Steele has a 2.46 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 5.4 BB% and 22.9 K%.
Steele should shine for the home crowd today against San Francisco's unimpressive offense. The Giants are 25th in wRC+ (90) and have a 25.4 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're 27th in wRC+ (79) and have a 25.9 K% in the previous 30 days. San Francisco is also 18th in wRC+ (95) and has a 26.5 K% on the road.
Despite his stellar stats and cushy matchup, Steele might be slightly under-rostered today. First, gamers might not want to spend a sizable salary for him since there are attractive, cheaper options. Second, he might struggle to earn a win since Logan Webb is toeing the slab for the Giants. Thus, the Cubs are just -135. Nevertheless, Steele has a high ceiling, perfect for GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (Great American Ball Park)
- Value: Medium (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Mariners are on an insane heater. In the previous 30 days, they're tied for first in wRC+ (144) and third in ISO (.215). Seattle is also sixth in wRC+ (108) on the road this season. Hitting at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park against Cincinnati's mediocre bullpen in a bullpen start should add fuel to Seattle's fire.
- Home (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/TEX -115
The Rangers haven't been world-beaters lately. Still, even during a slump by their standard this year, they're 13th in wRC+ (100) in the previous 30 days. The other applicable splits are awesome. The Rangers are fourth in wRC+ (112) versus righties in 2023. Texas is also second in wRC+ (126) and ISO (.217) at home this season.
Texas is also catching J.P. France at a good time. The rookie righty has a 5.92 ERA and 4.60 xFIP in his last five starts. He's also permitted 1.85 HR/9.
- In Julio Rodriguez's last 109 plate appearances, he's had a .505 OBP, .340 ISO and 260 wRC+. He also swatted seven homers and stole 10 bases.
- J.P. Crawford is also hot. He's hit five homers, stolen one base and produced a .455 OBP, .295 ISO and 198 wRC+ in his previous 77 plate appearances.
- In Teoscar Hernandez's previous 112 plate appearances, he's had a .402 OBP, .327 ISO, 201 wRC+ and eight homers.
- Mitch Garver has 13 homers, a .318 OBP, .270 ISO and 124 wRC+ in 177 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 230 plate appearances versus righties this season, Will Benson has eight homers, 13 stolen bases, a .383 OBP, .228 ISO and 137 wRC+. In addition, Bryan Woo has allowed a .433 wOBA to 125 left-handed batters.
- Jose Abreu is having a forgettable year for the Astros. Still, in 437 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he's had a .352 OBP, .222 ISO and 134 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Mariners are the top stack today. But the Rangers are also a high-upside source of offense in GPPs. Finally, by saving salary on Ragans and using a few punts, gamers can jam some stud hitters into their lineups at DK and FD.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
