It’s a tiny three-game MLB DFS main slate tonight, starting at 9:38 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks for the small slate are reduced to two starting pitchers, one stack, four studs and two values/punts.
It’s a tiny three-game MLB DFS main slate tonight, starting at 9:38 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks for the small slate are reduced to two starting pitchers, one stack, four studs and two values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching options are unusually strong for a three-game slate. It should flatten the percentage of rosters the starting pitchers are used on. The top pick is a starting pitcher with dominant home splits. He's a screaming value at DK and priced appropriately at FD. The second-ranked pitcher is a matchup and salary-driven suggestion.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. SD
According to FanGraphs, in 102.2 innings at home this year, Webb has a 2.37 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 64.2 GB%, 3.8 BB% and 23.7 K%. He's a handful for any offense when he toes the slab in San Francisco.
Tonight's opponent has hit lately. However, San Diego is tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) and has a 21.1 K% versus righties in 2023. The Padres are also 10th in wRC+ (100) and have a 22.0 K% on the road this year. So, their larger body of work is midpack to slightly better, and Webb can carve up that caliber of lineup.
Jon Gray (TEX) at LAA
Gray has an eye-popping 7.32 ERA in his previous five starts, lasting only 19.2 innings. However, his 4.59 xFIP indicates he was unlucky, albeit still not sharp. The veteran righty has done his best work on the road, though. In 72.1 innings on the road this year, Gray has a 3.61 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.8 BB% and 22.1 K%.
Tonight, he has a get-right matchup. The Angels are tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) and have a 25.2 K% versus righties in 2023. Yet, those numbers include performances from Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout earlier in the year, and both are injured. In the previous 30 days, the Angels are tied for 25th in wRC+ (83) and have a 26.9 K%. They are also tied for 19th in wRC+ (98) and have a 26.0 K% at home this year.
Finally, the betting info is encouraging. Per Betting Pros, the Rangers are -185, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Gray isn't worth rolling the dice on at FD. Still, saving money to use him as the SP2 at DK is appealing.
Top Lineup Stack
The Rangers have a top-shelf offense. Texas is fourth in wRC+ (119) versus lefties in 2023. They're tied for eighth in wRC+ (111) in the previous 30 days. The Rangers are also ninth in wRC+ (104) on the road this season.
They should shine in an outstanding matchup tonight. First, Patrick Sandoval has had a 4.74 ERA and 4.97 xFIP in his previous five starts. Second, he has a 4.66 ERA and 4.38 xFIP in 63.2 innings at home this year. Third, their bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA this season.
- In 150 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the majors last year, Josh Jung had hit 12 homers with a .353 OBP, .308 ISO and 167 wRC+.
- Yordan Alvarez has launched 29 homers with a .411 OBP, .289 ISO and 172 wRC+ in 470 plate appearances this year.
- In 248 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mitch Garver has mashed 12 taters with a .375 OBP, .228 ISO and 140 wRC+.
- Marcus Semien is the leadoff hitter for the Rangers, and they have a robust implied total. That's an outstanding starting point. Additionally, he has hit 18 homers with 14 stolen bases, a .337 OBP, .180 ISO and 113 wRC+ in 600 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- Mitch Haniger has hit 20 dongs with a .340 OBP, .241 ISO and 143 wRC+ in 365 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 513 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Austin Slater has hit 18 homers with 19 stolen bases, a .366 OBP, .187 ISO and 132 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Rangers are the best source for hitters tonight. The Giants have a challenging matchup against Blake Snell. Still, they have a few punts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
