Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 11 games and starts at 7:07 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer suggests three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two of the highest-priced pitchers are the most exciting options on the slate, with the top option best in cash games and the second-ranked pitcher the most attractive choice in GPPs. The final pitcher on the table is the best SP2 in all game types at DK and a compelling pick at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. OAK
Valdez is dazzling from the bump at home this year. According to FanGraphs, in 89.2 innings at home in 2023, Valdez has a 2.91 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 4.5 BB% and 24.5 K%. The strong showing in Houston this year isn't an outlier. He's pitched well there throughout his career.
Valdez can shine tonight against the Athletics. Oakland is tied for 23rd in wRC+ (91) and has a 23.5 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're also tied for 21st in wRC+ (90) and have a 23.7 K% on the road this year.
Finally, the betting info is drool-inducing. According to Betting Pros, the Astros are -305, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. CLE
Cobb is returning from a cortisone shot for a hip impingement, enhancing his risk tonight. Nevertheless, he's a stud at home. In 156.1 innings at home since last season, Cobb has had a 2.42 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 6.3 BB% and 24.0 K%.
The matchup and betting info are nice, too. The Guardians are 20th in wRC+ (94) versus righties in 2023. Cleveland is tied for 21st in wRC+ (91) and has a 20.0 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also 20th in wRC+ (91) on the road this year.
The betting info is the final reason to use Cobb in DFS tonight. The Giants are -145, and the game's total is a puny 7.5 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Tyler Glasnow (TB) at MIN
Glasnow is in excellent form. In his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, Glasnow has had a 2.90 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 31.1 K%, 32.9 CSW%, 116 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 109 Pitching+.
The knocks on Glasnow tonight are his salary and his matchup. Glasnow has a high salary. It might suppress the percentage of rosters he's on. In addition, the Twins have a potent offense. Yet, Minnesota has a 27.4 K% versus righties in 2023, a 27.4 K% at home this year and a 25.8 K% in the previous 30 days. Thus, Glasnow is a high-ceiling pick tailor-made for tournaments since upside rules the roost in GGPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Red Sox have an above-average offense and a matchup against a pitcher who struggles on the road. Boston is tied for 12th in wRC+ (103) versus righties in 2023. Furthermore, they're ninth in wRC+ (109) at home this season.
Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt has a 5.29 ERA and 4.58 xFIP on the road this year. He's also a punching bag for lefties, yielding a .371 OBP, .504 slugging and .374 wOBA to 307 of them this season.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/CHC -180
The Cubs get an offensive lift at Coors Field tonight. Moreover, the matchup is mouthwatering. First, Kyle Freeland has a 5.05 ERA and 4.65 xFIP in 73.0 innings at home this year. Second, he's allowed 1.60 HR/9 and a .355 wOBA to hitters at Coors Field. Third, Colorado's relievers have the highest ERA this season.
- Triston Casas has 20 homers, a .363 OBP, .226 ISO and 129 wRC+ in 392 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 464 plate appearances versus lefties since 2021, Dansby Swanson has had a .334 OBP, .201 ISO and 116 wRC+.
- Rafael Devers has swatted nine homers and posted a .358 OBP, .222 ISO and 124 wRC+ in 201 plate appearances against righties at home this year.
- In 95 plate appearances against righties this year, DJ Stewart has mashed 10 taters with a .340 OBP, .395 ISO and 173 wRC+.
- James Outman has 17 homers, 12 stolen bases, a .353 OBP, .223 ISO and 125 wRC+ in 354 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 123 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the majors last year, Gabriel Moreno has had a .366 OBP and 133 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Red Sox and Cubs are the most exciting offenses to stack. But since their salaries are high, gamers need punts such as Stewart, Outman and Moreno to fit those stacks under the salary cap.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
