There are 13 games on the MLB DFS main slate tonight, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks for tonight’s slate are reduced to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The highest-salaried pitchers on tonight's slate aren't appealing. Instead, dipping into the bargain bin is the most attractive move. The top option has pitched well lately, and he's sharp on the road. The second pitcher isn't consistent but has a favorable matchup. The third pick is a GPP selection because of his strikeout potential and ceiling.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Nick Pivetta (BOS) at BAL
Pivetta is pitching well lately. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five appearances (four starts) spanning 26.1 innings, Pivetta has had a 3.08 ERA, 2.95 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 3.9 BB%, 32.0 K%, 31.9 CSW%, 126 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 112 Pitching+.
He's also done his best work on the road. In 66.1 innings on the road this season, Pivetta has a 3.93 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 6.7 BB% and 31.9 K%.
The matchup is challenging against the Orioles. Still, the betting info is decent. Per Betting Pros, the Red Sox are slight underdogs (+110), but the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
Carlos Rodon (NYY) at KC
Rodon's first season on the Yankees hasn't gone according to the plan. Nevertheless, he's flashed good form lately. The lefty has pitched at least 5.0 innings in five of his previous seven starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of those turns.
His pitch modeling, walk rate and strikeout rate have also been encouraging lately. In his previous five starts spanning 26.2 innings, Rodon had a 5.3 BB%, 27.4 K%, 114 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 106 Pitching+.
He can reach his ceiling in a plus matchup tonight. The Royals are 28th in wRC+ (87) and have a 24.2 K% versus lefties in 2023. Kansas City is 14th in wRC+ (103) and has a 24.5 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also 23rd in wRC+ (94) and have a 19.9 K% at home this year. Finally, the Yankees are -145, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. TEX
The elephant in the room for Woo is his tricky matchup against the Rangers tonight. He has his work cut out for him. Regardless, it's all about the upside in GPPs, and Woo has it.
In 31.2 innings at home this year, Woo has a 3.69 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.7 BB% and 31.0 K%. The rookie also had sweet plate discipline and pitch-modeling data lately. In his previous four starts, Woo has had a 30.0 CSW%, 109 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. Using a pitcher against the Rangers is uncomfortable, but Woo's ceiling is worth chasing in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Coors Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Rockies hung 14 runs on the scoreboard last night and can take advantage of another game at hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight. The Rockies are 30th in wRC+ (78) at home. However, they're ninth in wOBA (.331), speaking to the offensive impact of Coors Field.
They'll attempt to explode again tonight against a pitcher who struggles on the road. In 74.1 innings on the road this year, Joe Ryan has a 4.84 ERA and 4.40 xFIP. The righty has also yielded 2.06 HR/9 on the road.
- Road (Busch Stadium)
- Value: Low (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/CIN -115
The Reds are hitting well lately. In the previous 30 days, they're tied for 10th in wRC+ (107). Cincinnati's bats have also traveled with them on the road. They're tied for 13th in wRC+ (98) on the road in 2023.
They're in an excellent position tonight against a lousy pitcher. Jake Woodford has a 5.09 ERA, 6.09 xERA and 5.15 xFIP in 14 appearances (seven starts) in 2023. Woodford has coughed up a .390 wOBA to lefties and a .369 wOBA to righties this season. Therefore, the Reds are stackable from the top of their order to the bottom.
- In 142 plate appearances at home against righties this season, Nolan Jones has swatted six homers with a .408 OBP, .225 ISO and 138 wRC+.
- Charlie Blackmon has hit five dingers with a .421 OBP, .248 ISO and 155 wRC+ in 159 plate appearances against righties at home this year.
- In 71 plate appearances this month, Christian Encarnacion-Strand has launched seven bombs with a .347 OBP, .324 ISO and 155 wRC+.
- Brendan Rodgers has a .400 OBP, .197 ISO and 144 wRC+ in 65 plate appearances against righties at Coors Field this season.
- In 404 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Kyle Farmer has hit 17 homers with a .351 OBP, .213 ISO and 130 wRC+.
- Will Benson has a .400 OBP, .208 ISO and 142 wRC+ in 145 plate appearances against righties on the road this year.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Rockies and Reds have exciting firepower and intriguing matchups, making them the best sources of hitters tonight.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
