Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 11 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested picks for this large slate are whittled to four starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The salaries for the most appealing starting pitchers on this slate are convenient. The top two pitchers have similar salaries, with one profiling the best in cash games and the other a nifty pivot in GPPs. Similarly, the third and fourth-ranked pitchers have comparable salaries at DK, allowing gamers to use the third-ranked option in cash games and the fourth-ranked one in GPPs, and doubling up on the cheapest suggested hurlers at DK awards gamers with the cap flexibility to jam in the two pricey recommended stacks in this piece.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. KC
Valdez is a workhorse. He's in good form and also outstanding at home. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 34.0 innings, he's had a 1.59 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 58.0 GB%, 8.4 BB%, 22.9 K% and 25.1 CSW%. Additionally, in 96.2 innings at home this year, Valdez has a 2.98 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 54.2 GB%, 4.5 BB% and 25.5 K%.
The matchup and betting info are favorable, too. The Royals are 27th in wRC+ (88) and have a 23.6 K% versus lefties in 2023. Kansas City is tied for 21st in wRC+ (91) and has a 23.2 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also 29th in wRC+ (78) and have a 26.5 K% on the road this year. Finally, per Betting Pros, Houston is -225, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET) at OAK
Gipson-Long had rock-solid ERA estimators and strikeout rates in the upper minors despite a ho-hum 3.74 ERA in Double-A and a 5.45 ERA in Triple-A in 2023. Fortunately, he's off to a fast start for the Tigers. In two starts spanning 10.0 innings, the rookie righty has a 2.70 ERA, 1.66 xERA, 2.45 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 41.0 K%, 38.1 CSW%, 117 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 102 Pitching+.
The matchup and betting info indicate he should stay hot tonight. The Athletics are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (88) and have a 25.2 K% versus righties in 2023. Oakland is tied for 18th in wRC+ (95) and has a 26.6 K% in the previous 30 days. The A's are also tied for 26th in wRC+ (88) and have a 25.8 K% at home this year. Moreover, the Tigers are -135, and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. LAA
In Lopez's previous five starts spanning 30.0 innings, he's had a 3.90 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 25.8 K%, 29.3 CSW%, 95 Stuff+, 108 Location+ and 107 Pitching+. An unsustainable .361 BABIP inflated Lopez's WHIP. So, the high WHIP isn't a concern.
Lopez has a cushy matchup against an injury-riddled and struggling offense. The Angels are 28th in wRC+ (83) and have a 25.9 K% in the previous 30 days. Thus, Minnesota is -290, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Cole Ragans (KC) at HOU
The matchup for Ragans is terrifying. However, the risk can be worth the reward since the lefty has been lights out lately. In his last five starts spanning 30.2 innings, Ragans has had a 2.05 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, 8.0 BB%, 35.4 K%, 27.5 CSW%, 99 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 104 Pitching+.
Ragans isn't an appealing selection on FD's single-pitcher platform. However, his low salary relative to his recent success is tantalizing at DK, albeit only in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves have an elite offense. They're first in wRC+ (132) and first in ISO (.237) against lefties in 2023. Atlanta is fourth in wRC+ (125) and second in ISO (.232) in the previous 30 days. The Braves are also first in wRC+ (121) and first in ISO (.220) on the road this season.
Patrick Corbin is unlikely to keep them in check. The veteran lefty has had a 6.51 ERA and 4.90 xFIP in his previous five starts.
- Home (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Dodgers have a juggernaut offense that can keep up with Atlanta's upside. LA is fifth in wRC+ (116) and second in ISO (.213) versus lefties in 2023. Los Angeles is tied for second in wRC+ (129) in the previous 30 days. The Dodgers are also third in wRC+ (122) and third in ISO (.207) at home this season.
Conversely, Sean Manaea is a mess on the road. The veteran lefty has a 6.08 ERA and 4.42 xFIP in 53.1 innings on the road this season.
- In 461 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Austin Riley has had a .367 OBP, .259 ISO and 147 wRC+.
- Mookie Betts has had a .393 OBP, .308 ISO and 169 wRC+ in 494 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 149 plate appearances against righties at home this season, Edouard Julien has hit eight homers with a .450 OBP, .293 ISO and 189 wRC+.
- Chris Taylor has had a .326 OBP, .214 ISO and 110 wRC+ in 458 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 532 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Amed Rosario has had a .340 OBP, .169 ISO and 125 wRC+.
- Matt Wallner has slugged seven homers with a .422 OBP, .337 ISO and 187 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances against righties at home this year.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves and Dodgers have dreamy matchups and high-octane offenses. However, since their studs have such high salaries, it's challenging to stack them in cash games and a better fit in tournaments. As a result, it's better to use only a player or two from each team in cash games and complement them with Julien, Wallner and other punts.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
