There are 13 games on tonight’s MLB DFS main slate, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks for the slate are narrowed to three starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The highest-salaried pitchers are rock-solid or better. Nevertheless, the upper-mid-tier hurlers are the most exciting picks on tonight's MLB DFS main slate. A white-hot lefty is the top hurler, followed by a pair of righties in good matchups and stellar road splits.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Tarik Skubal (DET) at LAA
Skubal is in a groove. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 30.0 innings, he's had a 2.70 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, 33.1 K%, 34.8 CSW%, 97 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 104 Pitching+. Skubal should stay hot in a plus matchup tonight.
The Angels are tied for 13th in wRC+ (103) and have a 23.1 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're tied for 24th in wRC+ (85) and have a 24.2 K% in the previous 30 days. The Angels are also tied for 17th in wRC+ (99) and have a 25.5 K% at home this year.
The betting info is encouraging, too. The Tigers are just -110. However, the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs.
Seth Lugo (SD) at OAK
Lugo has pitched well for the Padres and isn't slowing down. In his previous five starts totaling 28.1 innings, he's had a 2.54 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.6 BB%, 21.2 K%, 26.5 CSW%, 106 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 101 Pitching+. Lugo's above-average pitch modeling eases some concern about the gap between his ERA and xFIP.
In addition, the matchup and betting info are outstanding. The Athletics are tied for 21st in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.1 K% versus righties in 2023. Oakland is 15th in wRC+ (100) and has a 25.7 K% in the previous 30 days. They're also tied for 26th in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.5 K% at home this year. Moreover, the Padres are -210, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Jon Gray (TEX) at CLE
Gray hasn't been as bad lately as his 5.47 ERA in his last five starts would suggest. The righty's 4.17 xFIP was markedly better. He also had a 26.4 K% and 28.5 CSW% in those turns. Gray's stellar numbers on the road are also noteworthy for tonight. In 68.2 innings on the road this year, Gray has a 3.41 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 7.7 BB% and 22.7 K%.
The Guardians shouldn't provide much resistance tonight. Cleveland is 20th in wRC+ (94) versus righties in 2023. They're tied for 27th in wRC+ (82) in the previous 30 days. Finally, the Guardians are 25th in wRC+ (90) at home this season.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Twins have an excellent offense and unloaded for 10 runs last night. Minnesota is fifth in wRC+ (109) versus righties in 2023. They're fifth in wRC+ (124) and tied for fifth in ISO (.207) in the previous 30 days. Moreover, the Twins are 15th in wRC+ (97) on the road this year.
They can tee off on a struggling hurler tonight. Jesse Scholtens has had a 7.54 ERA and 5.66 xFIP in his previous five starts. Chicago's bullpen is also lousy, sporting the sixth-highest ERA this season.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/HOU -200
The Astros have a powerhouse offense. They're eighth in wRC+ (106) versus righties this year. Houston is second in wRC+ (119) on the road this year. Most impressively, the Astros are first in wRC+ (142) and tied for second in ISO (.221) in the previous 30 days.
Zack Greinke and Kansas City's bullpen are unlikely to cool the Astros off. Greinke has had a 5.06 ERA and 4.48 xFIP in his last four appearances (one start and three primary reliever appearances). Additionally, Kansas City's relievers have the third-highest ERA this year.
- Yordan Alvarez has slugged 18 homers with a .430 OBP, .374 ISO and 199 wRC+ in 207 plate appearances against righties on the road this year.
- In 213 plate appearances against righties on the road in 2023, Kyle Tucker has mashed 12 taters with a .424 OBP, .266 ISO and 172 wRC+.
- Royce Lewis has 13 homers, five stolen bases, a .355 OBP, .230 ISO and 143 wRC+ in 217 plate appearances this season.
- In 347 plate appearances this year, Edouard Julien has 13 homers, three stolen bases, a .382 OBP, .190 ISO and 135 wRC+.
- Matt Wallner has hit 10 homers with a .389 OBP, .288 ISO and 157 wRC+ in 162 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 222 plate appearances versus righties this season, Alex Kirilloff has a .378 OBP and 135 wRC+.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins have an exciting collection of hitters to choose from in a cushy matchup tonight, providing gamers with salary relief as well. The Astros are the other top choice for hitters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.