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Mike Williams Injury: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Replacement Pickups (Week 4)

Mike Williams Injury: Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Replacement Pickups (Week 4)

With the injury to Mike Williams, fantasy football managers are left with a potential void on their roster. Let’s check out the extent of the injury and players you can target on your waiver wire this week. And also be sure to check out our full waiver wire article for the week.

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Injury Replacement Pickups

Injury Outlook

Mike Williams out for season with torn ACL

An MRI today revealed that Chargers WR Mike Williams has a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

Fantasy Impact

Williams suffered the knee injury in San Diego’s Week 3 game against Minnesota. Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston will see an increase in targets and opportunities on a team with 122 passing attempts through three games. Both should be rostered in all fantasy formats.

Kelly Kirby

Waiver Wire Replacements to Target

Quentin Johnston (LAC): 32% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LV, BYE, DAL
  • True value: $5
  • Desperate need: $7
  • Budget-minded: $3

Analysis: Johnston only played 16 snaps while running only 13 routes in Week 3, and I would still rather roster him than Joshua Palmer in fantasy. With Mike Williams going down, Johnston can assume a full-time role in this offense as the season moves along and become the WR2 in this offense opposite Keenan Allen. While the per-route production for Johnston hasn’t been there in his small sample of playing time, there is one silver lining. Johnston currently has a 21% TPRR, which is a reflection of his ability to draw targets when he’s on the field. Entering Week 3, a 21% TPRR would have placed him immediately ahead of Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton in the rankings (minimum eight targets). Invest in Johnston now and enjoy watching him flourish in the coming weeks in one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Joshua Palmer (LAC): 2% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LV, BYE, DAL
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: Palmer is a desperation pickup only, even when factoring in a possible season-ending injury to Mike Williams. At this juncture, we know who Palmer is. He’s a better NFL receiver than a fantasy threat. Palmer finished with 66 receiving yards and a score this week, but if we look at his target volume and previous production this season, it helps to illuminate his skill level and fantasy outlook. Palmer saw a 14.8% target share in Week 3, which isn’t exactly noteworthy. Entering Week 3, among 89 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer had the fourth-lowest receiving grade and the lowest YPRR of the group (per PFF). Palmer could be a low-end flex play in Week 4, but his next two matchups are problematic.

Tank Dell (HOU): 31% rostered

  • Next Opponents: PIT, @ATL, NO
  • True value: $12
  • Desperate need: $20
  • Budget-minded: $8

Analysis: Dell is the truth. The rookie has led the Texans in targets in each of his first two starts, providing juicy stat lines in each outing. Dell has a 22.0% target share and 3.05 yards per route run (YPRR) across his last two games. The talent is real. Toss out your predraft notions. Forget about his size or draft capital. Dell has produced in back-to-back games with legitimate receivers flanking him. Rookies don’t earn targets at this type of clip unless they are the real deal. Dell is a strong WR3 for the rest of the season with still-untapped upside in an offense that’s moving at a swift pace with a ravishing neutral passing rate.

Adam Thielen (CAR): 47% rostered

  • Next Opponents: MIN, @DET, @MIA
  • True value: $6
  • Desperate need: $10
  • Budget-minded: $4

Analysis: Thielen blew up with a monster performance in Week 3. He snagged 11 of his 14 targets with 145 receiving yards and a score. Over the last two games, Thielen has a 25.2% target share and 1.70 YPRR (per PFF). I don’t know how long the veteran receiver can keep this up, but it’s time to ride the wave. Next up, he has a revenge game against his former team, the Vikings, followed by a game against the Lions. Minnesota and Detroit entered Week 3 having allowed the 11th and 13th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Fire up Thielen as a strong flex play over at least the next two weeks.

Romeo Doubs (GB): 41% rostered

  • Next Opponents: DET, @LV, BYE
  • True value: $4
  • Desperate need: $6
  • Budget-minded: $2

Analysis: Doubs had 98% route participation this week, as he led all Packer wideouts in snaps, routes and targets (per PFF). He has a 19.7% target share and 1.53 YPRR this season. These numbers are strong, but they aren’t overwhelming. Doubs will take a hit once Christian Watson is back in the fold, and his Week 3 outburst doesn’t change the fact that the Packers have a run-first offense. Doubs is a flex-worthy player moving forward, but expecting much more than that is setting the bar a bit too high.

Zay Jones (JAX): 37% rostered

  • Next Opponents: ATL, @BUF, IND
  • True value: $3
  • Desperate need: $5
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Jones missed Week 3, as he is dealing with a knee issue. He didn’t practice at all last week, so it’s possible he could miss Week 4 as well. Jones has an 11.5% target share and a 20.7% air yard share as the Jaguars’ WR2/3. Jones’ peripheral metrics aren’t glittering despite his strong Week 1 performance. Among 89 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 69th in receiving grade and 77th in YPRR (per PFF). Once Jones returns, he’s a WR4 who can pop off for WR2/3 numbers in the right matchup.

Jayden Reed (GB): 21% rostered

  • Next Opponents: DET, @LV, BYE
  • True value: $3
  • Desperate need: $5
  • Budget-minded: $1

Analysis: Reed has been impressive on a per-route basis. Among 89 qualifying receivers, he entered Week 3 ranked 21st and 24th in receiving grade and YPRR, respectively (per PFF). The problem for Reed isn’t talent, but rather his role and spot in the Packers’ passing pecking order. In Week 3, he had 84% route participation and a 15.9% target share, but he was still ranked third on the team in routes and targets. Once Christian Watson is back, Reed gets bumped from second or third in line to possibly as low as fourth. In a run-first offense, that makes him tough to count on weekly. Reed is best seen as a stash player with the possibility of flex upside in Week 4 if Christian Watson remains out.

Josh Downs (IND): 2% rostered

  • Next Opponents: LAR, TEN, @JAX
  • True value: $2
  • Desperate need: $3
  • Budget-minded: $0

Analysis: Downs could become a potential PPR flex if he continues to flourish, but it is difficult to see his value surpassing that. He has a 20.6% target share while running about 89% of his routes from the slot. The volume isn’t the problem, but when you marry that with his 4.3 average depth of target (entering Week 3), it becomes more difficult to see a high-upside scenario for Downs. The Colts aren’t likely to morph into a pass-first offense in 2023, which is a problem for Downs. Receivers who are confined to low aDOT roles need heavy volume or gawd-like YAC skills to emerge as weekly dynamos. Downs hasn’t seen the volume, nor has he flashed the elite-level YAC skills to overcome the volume concerns.

Check out our full Week 4 fantasy football waiver wire article partner-arrow

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