October is almost here and fantasy football is getting serious. With bye weeks right around the corner and 0-3 teams panicking, it’s a wise time to look ahead and stash defenses if you have the bench space. To that end, I figured I’d offer some of my favorite Week 5 stashes before we get to the full Week 4 projections.
- Denver (38% rostered, @CHI this week and vs NYJ next week). That’s right, the team that just gave up the second-most points ever to the team coached by their former ball boy. As a Broncos fan I love bad football, and the next two weeks are a delight in that regard. Despite the historic failure against a great offense last week, I think they should still be able to capitalize against two of the worst offenses in the league.
- Miami (54% rostered, @BUF this week, vs NYG next week, and vs CAR week 6). Keep an eye out for team dropping Miami due to the unstartable Bills matchup this week. They would be a great pickup for the two following weeks.
- Washington (30% rostered, @PHI this week, then vs CHI, @ATL and @NYG the next 3 weeks). Like the Dolphins, the Commanders are unusable next week, but have a nice three-week stretch afterward.
Week 4 D/St Projections
This is the toughest week for streaming so far. There are only two teams that feel like no-doubters to me, and none of the top 10 have rock-bottom rostership, though three teams are under 40%. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on The Platform Formerly Known as Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | KC | @NYJ | Zach Wilson | 16.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 7.73 | 86% |
| 2 | PHI | WAS | Sam Howell | 18.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.61 | 98% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 3 | CIN | @TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 20 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.84 | 37% |
| 4 | DEN | @CHI | Justin Fields | 21.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 6.84 | 38% |
| 5 | PIT | @HOU | C.J. Stroud | 19 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.93 | 69% |
| 6 | JAC | ATL | Desmond Ridder | 20.25 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.74 | 60% |
| 7 | BAL | @CLE | Deshaun Watson | 21.75 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.59 | 88% |
| 8 | TB | @NO | Jameis Winston | 21.25 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.39 | 28% |
| 9 | DAL | NE | Mac Jones | 17.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.37 | 100% |
| 10 | SF | ARI | Joshua Dobbs | 15 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6.34 | 100% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | NO | TB | Baker Mayfield | 18.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.27 | 65% |
| 12 | SEA | @NYG | Daniel Jones | 24 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 6.14 | 45% |
| 13 | TEN | CIN | Joe Burrow | 22.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.06 | 4% |
| 14 | CLE | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 19.25 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6.05 | 46% |
| 15 | HOU | PIT | Kenny Pickett | 22 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.02 | 1% |
| 16 | IND | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 22 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.01 | 5% |
| 17 | CHI | DEN | Russell Wilson | 24.75 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.98 | 1% |
| 18 | MIN | @CAR | Andy Dalton | 21 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.85 | 3% |
| 19 | NYG | SEA | Geno Smith | 22.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.68 | 6% |
| 20 | LAC | LV | Jimmy Garoppolo | 21 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5.32 | 6% |
| 21 | LAR | @IND | Anthony Richardson | 23 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5.16 | 3% |
| 22 | CAR | MIN | Kirk Cousins | 24.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.06 | 7% |
| 23 | ATL | @JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 23.25 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.03 | 4% |
| 24 | GB | DET | Jared Goff | 23.25 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4.74 | 28% |
| 25 | LV | @LAC | Justin Herbert | 26.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.74 | 2% |
| 26 | NE | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 24.75 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4.64 | 86% |
| 27 | DET | @GB | Jordan Love | 21.75 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4.57 | 6% |
| 28 | MIA | @BUF | Josh Allen | 28 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.56 | 54% |
| 29 | WAS | @PHI | Jalen Hurts | 27 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.44 | 30% |
| 30 | BUF | MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 25.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.08 | 97% |
| 31 | NYJ | KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 26 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4.03 | 89% |
| 32 | ARI | @SF | Brock Purdy | 29 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3.94 | 2% |
Matchups
- KC @ NYJ: Zach Wilson didn’t turn the ball over last week against the Patriots, unless you count the Safety. The Jets still only managed 10 points. The Chiefs’ defense is good and should eat this week.
- PHI vs WAS: The wheels really fell off for Sam Howell, who threw four interceptions last week after being pretty OK in the prior two weeks. That was against a good Bills defense, but it’s not going to get any easier against an even better Eagles team this week.
- CIN @ TEN: Derrick Henry was quiet against the Browns last week, rushing for just 20 yards. And when Henry is quiet the Titans are quiet. They had more sacks taken than points, with Tannehill taking 5 sacks while the team scored just a field goal. The Bengals are a similarly tough defense this week.
- DEN @ CHI: I don’t remember the last time I was this excited about a football game. The battle of the winless teams is going to be an absolute mess. For all the Broncos’ faults, I don’t expect them to look as historically bad as they did last week.
- PIT @ HOU: The Houston Texans played great last week, putting up 37 points against the Jags. C.J. Stroud avoided sacks entirely, after taking 11 through the first two weeks. This is extremely exciting if you’re a Texans fan, but it needs to be a pattern before we take Houston off the menu of streaming defense targets.
- JAC vs ATL: The Jags did get torched by the Texans last week, but I will still be running them back this week thanks to the tasty Falcons matchup. Last week, the Falcons made a similarly below-average Lions defense the #2 fantasy DST, without a defensive touchdown. The Falcons scored only 6 points while Desmond Ridder took 7 sacks.
- BAL @ CLE: The Browns offense clicked last week, with Deshaun Waston playing his first interception-less game of the season. They still aren’t particularly scary, and the Vegas lines show an expectation that they’ll reach a season low for points scored this week against the Ravens.
- TB @ NO: Last week, Jameis Winston played a little more than half the game in relief of Derek Carr, who left with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder. I’m expecting Carr to stay out for at least another week. Back when Winston was a starter he was a boom-bust DST matchup, throwing plenty of touchdowns and interceptions in equal measure. That was way back in 2019 – I expect less downside for defenses facing him in 2023.
- DAL vs NE: The Cowboys may have had their lunch money stolen by the Cardinals last week, but don’t bench them yet. They should bounce back against a Patriots offense that managed to win with only 15 points against the Jets.
- SF vs ARI: Joshua Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for Cardinals fans, who saw them embarras the (formerly?) best defense in the league, the Cowboys. Now they have to go on the road to face the other best defense in San Francisco. This isn’t a reason to bench SF, but it adds some anxiety to what we thought was going to be a home run matchup for the 49ers.
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