Projecting defenses, and the NFL in general, involves a lot of guesswork at the beginning of the season. While one game is not exactly a large sample size, it’s a heck of a lot more than zero. Here are some takeaways from Week 1 on the topic of which teams and quarterbacks are worth targeting with fantasy defenses.

• The biggest and saddest quarterback news is that it’s now been confirmed that Aaron Rodgers is out for the season with a torn Achilles. The Jets have been one of the most reliable teams to target with fantasy defenses over the last few years, and Zach Wilson has been a big part of that. With Wilson back in the driver’s seat, it’s looking like another year of the same.
• Three rookie QBs started in Week 1 – Bryce Young (CAR), Anthony Richardson (IND) and C.J. Stroud (HOU), all of whom went in the top 4 in the 2023 NFL draft. Even with such draft pedigree, rookies always start in the “fantasy defense target until proven otherwise” category, and none of the three did anything to get out of that group in Week 1. All three still have potential to be superstars, but in the meantime, I’m happy starting their opponents in fantasy.
• Sam Howell (WAS), Joshua Dobbs (ARI) and Desmond Ridder (ATL) are not rookies, but they are new full-time starters for their teams. Like the rookies, none of the three really impressed last week, and they remain in the category of QBs worth targeting.
• Deshaun Watson didn’t take a major step forward compared to his post-suspension performances at the end of last season. He and the Browns remain a reasonable fantasy defense target, but not the most exciting one.
• Sean Peyton’s cooking class hasn’t seemed to help Russel “exactly 16 points” Wilson and the Broncos, who looked a lot like they did last year.

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Week 2 D/ST Projections

A lot of offenses underwhelmed last week, so the prognosis is good for a lot of fantasy defenses this week. It should be easy to find a usable defense, with three of my top 10 teams being rostered in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. You can find me on Twitter.

Matchups

1. DAL vs NYJ: In his career, Zach Wilson has been a pretty good target for fantasy defenses, who average 8 fantasy points against him. If “whoever’s facing Zach Wilson” was a team, their points per game would have ranked 5th among defenses in 2021 and 8th in 2022. Unless he manages to take a big step forward, “whoever’s facing Zach Wilson” will be a mainstay of the top of my rankings this season.
2. DEN vs WAS: “Denver? Aren’t they terrible?” You might ask. That’s probably true for their offense, but as usual, they lost despite a strong showing from their defense, who held the Raiders to 17 points. Just as Denver lost last week despite allowing limited points, Washington won while scoring only 20 points. As a result Arizona’s defense had an excellent fantasy day against WAS despite losing (they would have been a top-5 defense even without the fumble six), and I expect similar for Denver this week.
3. TB vs CHI: Justin Fields was Justin Fields last week, running the ball and taking four sacks, while not impressing as a passer. The third-year QB only has one career game where he managed three passing touchdowns. Thanks to his high sack rate, Fields will remain a good fantasy defense target as long as he remains mediocre in the passing game.
4. NO @ CAR: Bryce Young‘s 10-point performance last week is another data point calling into question the wisdom of starting highly drafted quarterbacks immediately as rookies. There may be hope for him yet, but he’s going to have to burn me before I stop starting defenses against him.
5. NYG @ ARI: The Cardinals’ offensive line was a problem for Josh Dobbs last week, who was sacked 3 times and gave up 2 fumbles. Combine that with a general inability to put up points and you’ve got a tasty fantasy matchup for any defense.
6. HOU vs IND: When the total for a game is 40 or lower and the spread isn’t too extreme, that’s a candidate for both defenses being viable in fantasy, and we have our first example in this battle of early NFL draft picks. Anthony Richardson is an impressive runner, but ultimately four sacks and an interception were enough to make Jacksonville a top-10 fantasy defense last week. It’s really splitting hairs to decide who to rank higher between Houston and Indianapolis, so tie goes to the home team.
7. IND @ HOU: Just like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud did not impress in his NFL debut last week, leading the team to just 3 field goals while taking 5 stacks. Not only does Stroud remain in the “target until he burns us” category of quarterbacks, but he might also come with good upside for opposing defenses due to sacks.
8. SF @ LAR: The Rams’ run game was impressive last week, but not impressive enough to scare me off from using the best defense in the league – San Francisco. Vegas seems to agree, with quite a low implied point total of just 18.25 despite the Rams putting up 30 last week.
9. CLE @ PIT: It may have been a nightmare matchup against San Francisco, but that doesn’t mean Kenny Pickett wasn’t bad last week, throwing 2 interceptions and taking 5 sacks, while scoring just a single touchdown. The second-year quarterback is still on the hunt for his first multi-passing-touchdown game, and remains solidly in the camp of good fantasy defense targets.
10. PIT vs CLE: Cleveland and Deshaun Watson pulled out the win last week, but that was mostly a consequence of Joe Burrow no longer needing to score points thanks to his over $200 million in guaranteed money. Watson was OK, but was still far from replicating the high-flying success we saw earlier in his career.

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