It’s that time of year again! Opening weekend is upon us, which means it’s time to finally pick up a defense – you didn’t draft one, did you? This article series is all about streaming defenses – the practice of picking up a new defense every week in order to play matchups, rather than sticking with a single team for an extended period of time. There are a few facts that support this approach:
- Fantasy D/ST scoring is is weird, and is primarily driven by sacks and turnovers.
- Sacks are almost entirely the offense’s fault. A talented pass rush will put pressure on a quarterback, but a QB who knows when to get rid of the ball will get rid of the ball. Meanwhile a QB who is prone to taking sacks is going to get sacked by almost any opponent.
- Fumbles are largely random. About half of offensive fumbles happen on sacks, and only about 20% of fumbles are committed by running backs. This means the QB’s tendency to take sacks, and the offense’s pass-to-rush ratio, are the most useful factors when projecting the likelihood of a fumble.
- Interceptions only happen on passing plays, obviously. Combined with sacks and fumbles, this means a majority of fantasy DST scoring happens when the offense is passing.
- Within reasonable bounds, who the defense is doesn’t matter all that much compared to who the offense is. Most years there are 1-2 defenses so bad I wouldn’t start them in a great matchup, and there are never defenses so good I would start them in a bad matchup.
- Vegas is the best source for points allowed projections. You can extract team totals from the spread and total for a game, and if you can reliably project scores more accurately than that, you are very rich.
- Because most people stick with a defense long-term rather than playing matchups as aggressively as we do, you can typically find an available defense with a good matchup every week.
Each week, I project DST fantasy scoring using these principles. I generally split my rankings into three tiers: “Start Them With Confidence, “Still a Fine Choice,” and “Surely You Can Find Something Better.” Sometimes I add a “Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better” tier in particularly tough weeks. Teams projected for 22 or fewer points allowed are candidates to be start, and point projections below 18 are solid gold. Non-disaster offenses and still be good fantasy D/ST targets, if they happen to profile for a lot of sacks and interceptions.
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Week 1 D/ST Projections
If you’re a long time reader, you might notice that this table is a little different than it’s been in the past. I’ve elected to display who the opposing quarterback is, since that’s the most important factor in projecting defenses. To make room I left out the Vegas total and spread, which were just there to support the expected points allowed, which is still shown. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter X.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | WAS | ARI | Joshua Dobbs | 15.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6.81 | 69% |
| 2 | BAL | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 16.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.68 | 92% |
| 3 | NO | TEN | Ryan Tannehill | 19 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 6.58 | 75% |
| 4 | GB | @CHI | Justin Fields | 21.75 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.56 | 35% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 5 | SEA | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 20 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.45 | 14% |
| 6 | DAL | @NYG | Daniel Jones | 21.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 6.43 | 99% |
| 7 | SF | @PIT | Kenny Pickett | 19.75 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 6.34 | 100% |
| 8 | ATL | CAR | Bryce Young | 18 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.29 | 5% |
| 9 | MIN | TB | Baker Mayfield | 19.75 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.29 | 6% |
| 10 | CIN | @CLE | Deshaun Watson | 22.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 6.28 | 58% |
| 11 | PHI | @NE | Mac Jones | 20.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 6.15 | 99% |
| 12 | BUF | @NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 22 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.84 | 99% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 13 | CLE | CIN | Joe Burrow | 25 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 5.78 | 11% |
| 14 | PIT | SF | Brock Purdy | 21.75 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5.78 | 65% |
| 15 | CHI | GB | Jordan Love | 20.75 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 5.74 | 3% |
| 16 | LV | @DEN | Russell Wilson | 24 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5.73 | 1% |
| 17 | DEN | LV | Jimmy Garoppolo | 20 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.72 | 77% |
| 18 | JAC | @IND | Anthony Richardson | 20.25 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.48 | 28% |
| 19 | NYJ | BUF | Josh Allen | 24.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.31 | 94% |
| 20 | CAR | @ATL | Desmond Ridder | 21.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5.30 | 11% |
| 21 | LAR | @SEA | Geno Smith | 25.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 5.26 | 3% |
| 22 | ARI | @WAS | Sam Howell | 22.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5.24 | 1% |
| 23 | TEN | @NO | Derek Carr | 22 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.23 | 2% |
| 24 | KC | DET | Jared Goff | 24 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.98 | 54% |
| 25 | NYG | DAL | Dak Prescott | 25 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.96 | 4% |
| 26 | LAC | MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 23.75 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.94 | 10% |
| 27 | NE | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 24.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 4.93 | 82% |
| 28 | IND | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 25.25 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.80 | 2% |
| 29 | TB | @MIN | Kirk Cousins | 25.75 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.72 | 22% |
| 30 | HOU | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 26.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.69 | 1% |
| 31 | MIA | @LAC | Justin Herbert | 26.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.63 | 76% |
| 32 | DET | @KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 28.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3.81 | 7% |
Matchups
- WAS vs ARI: One of the best categories of QB to target is “barely a starter,” and that describes Joshua Dobbs. It’s not much of a sample size, but in two games as the Titans’ starter at the end of last season, Dobbs threw two interceptions, took six sacks, and fumbled four times. Not only is Washington facing the lowest point projection of the week, but they have a lot of upside if Dobbs turns in a similar performance.
- BAL vs HOU: I consider rookie quarterbacks to be viable DST targets until they prove otherwise. C.J. Stroud is about as promising as they come, but that promise has landed him on a weak team without much of a supporting cast to throw to. Stroud might be a hero, but I would be very surprised to see it in Week 1.
- NO vs TEN: In his 12th season in the NFL, Ryan Tannehill is a known quantity. He’s one of the 32 best quarterbacks in football, and his interception and sack numbers are high enough to make him a viable DST target, albeit not the most exciting one.
- GB @ CHI: Justin Fields is an excellent runner, and tied with Russell Wilson to be the most-sacked QB in the league last year. Until he can get the sacks under control or take a serious step forward as a passer, Fields is an excellent target for fantasy defenses. Green Bay has a great prognosis on the road, and has a good chance of being available in your league.
- SEA vs LAR: If Matthew Stafford plays as well as he did before last year’s season-ending spinal injury, he’s still a pretty good defense target, and that’s a lot to ask. He’s become more interception-prone in recent years, and I expect that to continue.
- DAL @ NYG: Daniel Jones was an excellent DST target in the first two seasons of his career, even when scoring, thanks to sacks and interceptions. In the last two years he’s cleaned up the picks, but the sacks are still there. Jones is in that middle ground where I’m only comfortable starting strong defenses against him, and the Cowboys qualify.
- SF @ PIT: Kenny Pickett didn’t really impress in his rookie campaign, managing only 7 passing touchdowns in 13 games. While not a liability from a turnover perspective, he has a long way to go to be a QB I wouldn’t start a fantasy defense against, especially one as strong as the 49ers.
- ATL vs CAR: Bryce Young is another “target until he proves we shouldn’t” rookie. Like Stroud, his high draft spot has landed him on a weak team. Atlanta isn’t the most exciting team either, but I’m fine with starting them at home against rookie, even one with a strong pedigree.
- MIN vs TB: Like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield is in the category of “viable DST target even when he’s scoring,” thanks to sacks and turnovers, and it’s not like he scores all that much these days. He hasn’t had a 3-touchdown game since 2020. Tampa Bay is a pretty good landing spot for him, but so was Los Angeles. The Vikings at home should not be scared.
- CIN @ CLE: Deshaun Watson did not impress when they inexplicably let him back into the league last year, taking 20 sacks in six outings, and only leading the team to more than 20 points against two of last year’s worst teams (Houston and Washington). The risk is there – we all saw the top-shelf talent he showed with the Texans in his four seasons before the suspension. He might get back to that yet, but I’m fine with starting a solid defense like the Bengals against him until that happens.
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