Fitz’s Week 4 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

As a younger man, I was oblivious to weather forecasts. Many were the times I was caught in rainstorms that I didn’t know were coming.

Now, I’ve turned into my grandfather when it comes to the weather. I know the forecast for tomorrow. I know the forecast for next Wednesday. I always try to catch the weather report on the local 10 p.m. news.

Lame, right? Cut me some slack. I’m an old man.

In fantasy football, my interest in the weather has moved in the opposite direction. I used to pay close attention to gameday weather reports and would often factor them into my lineup decisions. No longer.

It’s not that I ignore weather forecasts these days, but I’ll almost never make a lineup decision based on weather.

I bring this up now because Sunday will be the first day of October. Fall is upon us, and there is sketchy weather ahead. And when bad weather arrives, fantasy managers freak out.

Overreaction to weather reports is common in our little game. Fantasy managers see forecasts of 10-15 mph winds and want to bench their top-10 quarterback for a lesser player. They fret about rain games. They fret about snow games. They presumably take in their patio furniture every time a few clouds roll in.

Seemingly dire forecasts often turn out to be big fat nothing-burgers.

As I mentioned in one of my rankings/tiers articles last year, I usually only adjust player rankings based on three types of weather:

Sustained winds of 20 mph or higher
Torrential rain
Heavy snow

The notion that 10-15 mph winds are going to affect NFL passing games is silly. If you don’t believe me, the next time you’re getting winds of 10-15 mph, go outside with a football and play a game of catch with a friend or family member. I don’t think you’ll find it more difficult to make accurate throws to your target. Heck, I don’t think you’d have any more trouble making on-target throws with a Nerf football.

Light rain typically doesn’t affect games that much. Nor does light snow. Torrential rains or blizzard-like conditions … different story.

Don’t let mild winds or small amounts of precipitation trick you into making poor lineup decisions.

OK, let’s plunge into Week 4. As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 4 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

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Colts rookie Anthony Richardson is averaging 0.46 fantasy points per snap. Here’s how that compares to the three highest-drafted QBs so far: Patrick Mahomes 0.36, Josh Allen 0.29, Jalen Hurt 0.27. Granted, 87 snaps amount to a raindrop-sized sample, but it’s still a good reminder that Richardson has already earned must-start status. If you gave Joe Burrow investors a shot of sodium pentothal, nearly all of them would trade Burrow for Richardson straight-up.

The prospect of starting Daniel Jones is frightening after his 5-point performance against the 49ers in Week 3, but a much easier matchup against the Seahawks this week puts Jones in low-end QB1/high-end QB2 territory. The Giants will be at home facing a Seattle defense allowing 328 passing yards per game. The Giants’ offensive line can’t possibly turn in another performance as dreadful as the one they turned in against San Francisco a week ago. The Seahawks have the third-lowest pressure rate in the league (16.7%), so Jones should have time to operate.

To those fretting about the possibility that the 49ers will build a huge early lead and potentially curb Brock Purdy’s fantasy numbers by setting up an ultra-run-friendly game script … relax. Sure, that could happen, but don’t make it the reason you bench Purdy this week. If the 49ers build a big early lead against the Cardinals, Purdy will probably be contributing to that. Look at what happened last week: The 49ers were double-digit home favorites against the Giants, kept the Giants at arm’s length throughout the game and won by 18 points, and Purdy still finished with 310 passing yards and two touchdowns. Making assumptions about game scripts is unwise. Don’t let a stroll down Narrative Street turn into a midnight trip into a dark alley.

As dismal as the start of the season has been for the 0-3 Broncos, Russell Wilson isn’t to blame for Denver’s ills. Wilson is completing 65.4% of his throws, and he’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and 263.7 passing yards per game. A QB14 ranking may be too conservative for Wilson against the struggling Bears, who have a feeble pass rush and major injury problems in their secondary.

RUNNING BACKS

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It’s understandable that some fantasy managers might be hesitant to start James Conner given his daunting matchup against the 49ers, who have allowed a league-low 111 rushing yards. But Conner is one of the few RBs in the league getting true workhorse usage. He’s averaging 17.0 carries a game and 19.3 touches a game. It’s possible Conner gets 17 carries against the 49ers and finishes with 35 rushing yards. I’d still rather bet the volume with Conner than bet on a committee back in a better offense. Although it’s hard to get optimistic about any element of this matchup, it’s worth noting that San Francisco has given up a league-high 21 receptions to running backs.

Mea culpa: I liked Najee Harris as a draft value this year. Harris got off to a slow start last year, too, but he was dealing with a Lisfranc injury and was much better in the second half of the season. He averaged 59.1 yards from scrimmage over the first eight games of 2022 and 87.8 yards from scrimmage over his last nine. I thought the Pittsburgh offensive line would be better this year after some significant offseason additions, but that hasn’t been the case. PFF has the Steelers 28th in their offensive line rankings this week. The appeal for Harris this week is a matchup against the perennially bad Texans run defense, which has already allowed five touchdown runs to RBs. Harris had 19 carries against the Raiders last week but produced only 65 rushing yards. If Harris can’t turn that sort of usage into good fantasy numbers this week against Houston, park him on your bench.

I’m shying away from Rachaad White this week in a tricky matchup vs. a Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards and eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. It might seem contradictory to fade White in a bad matchup but tout James Conner in an even worse matchup. The difference is that we have a solid body of evidence that Conner is a good running back. I’m not sure we can draw than conclusion with White yet. I think White is better than a replacement-level running back, but he might not be good enough to merit workhorse-type usage. One potential problem is reduced usage in the passing game. White had 50 catches last year as a rookie, and he and Leonard Fournette combined for 123 catches. White has 10 catches on 10 targets so far this season. RBs accounted for 20.3% of the Buccaneers’ team targets last season, and Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts. This season, RBs are accounting for 13.5% of the Bucs’ team targets, and Baker Mayfield is tied for 21st in pass attempts.

The last thing I want to do is untap the keg at the De’Von Achane breakout party. Achane’s combination of speed and contact balance reminds me of Warrick Dunn, who was a valuable fantasy asset for more than a decade in the ’90s and ’00s. But it’s not a mortal lock that Achane gets double-digit touches this week. Achane had 22 touches against the Broncos last week and rolled up 233 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. But he was out-snapped by Raheem Mostert 37-30, and we can’t count on Achane to touch the ball on 73.3% of his snaps again. It’s also possible Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed returns from a groin injury this week, but Ahmed could potentially dilute Achane’s usage. I have Achane ranked as a midrange RB3 this week vs. the Bills.

Matt Breida is a playable option this week barring an unexpectedly early Saquon Barkley return from a high-ankle sprain. Breida had 4-17-1 rushing in the Giants’ 30-12 loss to the 49ers last week and had three catches for 1 yard. Had it not been for a spritz of touchdown deodorant, it would have been a disastrous fantasy outing for Breida. But it’s worth nothing that Breida played 82% of the Giants’ offensive snaps in that game. He has a much better matchup this week vs. a Seattle defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs.

Even though the Denver run defense was fricasseed by the Dolphins last week, it’s hard to get excited about starting one of the Bears’ running backs against the Broncos this week. Neither Roschon Johnson nor Khalil Herbert has gotten double-digit carries in a game this season, and the Chicago offense has been a dysfunctional mess. Consider Johnson and Herbert low-end RB3s this week.

Samaje Perine and Elijah Mitchell are viable lineup options this week in deeper leagues. Both figure to get some work regardless of game script, but both have primo matchups against bad opponents and could potentially see a workload spike if their game scripts are especially favorable. Perine’s Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites against the Bears, who have been outscored 106-47 this season and have given up the second-most fantasy points to RBs. Mitchell’s 49ers are 14.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Unfortunately, there is no decoder to help us figure out when to bail out on a proven stud who isn’t producing. DeAndre Hopkins has been a star for most of his career. He’s 31, but game tape doesn’t suggest that Hopkins is teetering over the age cliff. His stat lines from his first three games: 7-65-0, 4-40-0, 3-48-0. Not great, Bob. The Titans’ quarterbacking and offensive line play have been the problems. Hopkins is commanding a zesty 30.9% target share. Usage is not the issue. Although the QB and OL problems aren’t going away for Tennessee, I don’t think they’ll completely torpedo Hopkins’ production. Stick with the star receiver despite the frustrating recent production.

I thought the 5-9, 165-pound Tutu Atwell would be a gadget player/kick returner for the entirety of his career. But three games into his third NFL season, Atwell is among the league leaders in routes run, he’s drawn at least eight targets in every game, and he’s WR12 in half-point PPF fantasy scoring. Atwell has become a weekly must-start — at least until Cooper Kupp returns from his hamstring injury.

Revenge-game narratives can get a little stale, but I’m admittedly intrigued by Adam Thielen’s return to his native Minnesota. Thielen played college football at Minnesota State and spent nine seasons with the Vikings, but the Vikes elected not to re-sign him in free agency. Now with the Panthers, Thielen has cranked out 18-199-2 on 23 targets over his last two games. This week, he’ll face a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Thielen is a compelling fantasy play this week, though I actually would have felt better about him with Andy Dalton at quarterback for the Panthers rather than rookie Bryce Young. With Young sidelined by a concussion last week, Thielen had 11-145-1 with Dalton at QB.

The season-ending injury to Mike Williams gives immediate fantasy relevance to Chargers WRs Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. Through three games, Palmer has a 60.0% snap share, Johnston a 22.3% snap share. With Palmer to become a fixture in two-receiver sets, his snap share should approach 90% this week, and Johnston should have a snap share north of 50% as a regular in three-receiver sets. I think Palmer is the better play this week, and I have him ranked as a midrange WR4 in a favorable matchup against the Raiders. I don’t think Palmer is much more than a replacement-level receiver, however, and I think Johnston is the better long-term play. A first-round draft pick from TCU, Johnston has pretty much everything you’d want from an NFL receiver except for reliable hands. If he can overcome his drop issues, QJ could become a star. For this week, however, he’s just a midrange WR5.

Jahan Dotson’s talent is legit, but his early-season production has been disheartening. He has 10-83-0 on 16 targets, and he hasn’t had more than 40 receiving yards in a game. It’s not as if Dotson is being ignored in the Washington offense — his 16 targets are tied with Terry McLaurin for the team lead. But Dotson’s efficiency numbers are gross. After averaging 14.9 yards per catch and 8.6 yards per target as a rookie, Dotson is averaging 8.3 yards per catch and 5.2 yards per target in Year 2. Commanders QB Sam Howell only seems to be seeking out Dotson on his shorter routes. Dotson’s average depth of target last year was 13.5 yards. So far this year: 7.4 yards. I don’t think Dotson breaks out of his slump this week vs. a tough Eagles pass defense. Keep him on your bench this week and reinsert him against the Bears next week.

Elijah Moore is on pace for 85 receptions, but his production thus far has been little more than empty PPR calories. He has 15 catches for 128 yards and no touchdowns. Moore is averaging 8.5 yards per catch and 5.1 yards per target. His average depth of target is 7.8 yards, which is almost four yards shorter than his career average. This week, Moore faces the Ravens in a game that sets up as a classic, low-scoring AFC North rock fight. I’m ranking Moore as a lower-end WR4.

Speaking of low average depths of target, Seattle rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has an aDOT of 2.7 yards. JSN is a wildly talented young receiver, but when your targets are coming that close to the line of scrimmage, it’s going to be hard to pop unless you’re getting peppered with targets. That hasn’t been the case, with Smith-Njigba averaging 4.7 targets per game. I’m still sneaking JSN into my top 50 at the position because I think he’s a future star, but his usage suggests that caution is warranted in any lineup decisions that involve the former Ohio State star.

TIGHT ENDS

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Travis Kelce

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Despite the absence of WR Diontae Johnson, who’s on IR with a hamstring injury, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth hasn’t drawn more than four targets in a game this season. Freiermuth checked in with a decent 3-41-1 stat line last week vs. the Raiders, but his lack of involvement is still concerning. I think most of is attributable to Pittsburgh’s overall dysfunction on offense so far. It’s still worth starting Freiermuth this week in a favorable matchup against the Texans, who have given up 17-162-1 to tight ends this season. But if the Steelers’ offense remains stuck in the quagmire and Freiermuth has another puny target total, you might need to consider replacing him.

The Ravens have been tough on tight ends this season, giving up just 8-45-0 to opposing TEs over their first three games. If you’re a David Njoku stakeholder, you might want to consider a pivot this week rather than start Njoku against Baltimore.

Rookie TEs are generally poor bets for fantasy football — even highly drafted TEs. Of the 25 tight ends taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2000, only four were fantasy TE1s as rookies. The list: Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey. We have one rookie tight end who seems destined for a TE1 finish in 2023, but it’s not Bills first-rounder Dalton Kincaid. It’s Lions second-rounder Sam LaPorta. Kincaid, meanwhile, is currently TE27 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. He has an 11.2% target share and has been targeted on 14% of his routes. It’s not the sort of usage we were hoping for. I have Kincaid ranked TE17 this week, and I’m worried that I’m too high on him.

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NFL Rankings Start/Sit Streamers Tiers Weekly Advice Josh Allen Jalen Hurts Justin Herbert Patrick Mahomes Tua Tagovailoa Anthony Richardson Lamar Jackson Kirk Cousins Joe Burrow Trevor Lawrence Daniel Jones Justin Fields Brock Purdy Russell Wilson Geno Smith Deshaun Watson Jared Goff Jordan Love Matthew Stafford C.J. Stroud Dak Prescott Kenny Pickett Jameis Winston Bryce Young Baker Mayfield Desmond Ridder Mac Jones Sam Howell Ryan Tannehill Joshua Dobbs Zach Wilson Christian McCaffrey Bijan Robinson Tony Pollard Kenneth Walker Derrick Henry Travis Etienne Josh Jacobs James Cook Rhamondre Stevenson Raheem Mostert Zack Moss D’Andre Swift Aaron Jones Jahmyr Gibbs Joe Mixon Kyren Williams Alexander Mattison Miles Sanders Alvin Kamara Javonte Williams Isiah Pacheco James Conner Brian Robinson Najee Harris Jerome Ford Breece Hall Dameon Pierce Rachaad White De’Von Achane Joshua Kelley David Montgomery Jaylen Warren Matt Breida Roschon Johnson Khalil Herbert Gus Edwards Tyler Allgeier A.J. Dillon Samaje Perine Chuba Hubbard Kenneth Gainwell Jerick McKinnon Ezekiel Elliott Tyjae Spears Dalvin Cook Zach Charbonnet Rico Dowdle Justice Hill Devin Singletary Tank Bigsby Clyde Edwards-Helaire Antonio Gibson Kareem Hunt Latavius Murray Gary Brightwell Leonard Fournette Salvon Ahmed Saquon Barkley Tyreek Hill Justin Jefferson Stefon Diggs Ja’Marr Chase Keenan Allen Davante Adams A.J. Brown Amon-Ra St. Brown CeeDee Lamb Chris Olave Puka Nacua Deebo Samuel DeVonta Smith D.K. Metcalf Jaylen Waddle Amari Cooper George Pickens Calvin Ridley Tee Higgins Tyler Lockett Christian Kirk Michael Pittman Mike Evans Brandon Aiyuk Garrett Wilson Chris Godwin D.J. Moore DeAndre Hopkins Zay Flowers Gabe Davis Tutu Atwell Courtland Sutton Christian Watson Jerry Jeudy Nico Collins Drake London Terry McLaurin Tank Dell Adam Thielen Jordan Addison Joshua Palmer Michael Thomas Jakobi Meyers Marquise Brown Jahan Dotson Romeo Doubs Elijah Moore Jaxon Smith-Njigba Josh Reynolds Jayden Reed Rashid Shaheed Tyler Boyd Kendrick Bourne K.J. Osborn Quentin Johnston D.J. Chark Robert Woods Calvin Austin Brandin Cooks Rashee Rice Josh Downs Darius Slayton Skyy Moore Van Jefferson Allen Robinson DeVante Parker Curtis Samuel JuJu Smith-Schuster Cooper Kupp Andy Dalton Mike Williams Travis Kelce T.J. Hockenson George Kittle Mark Andrews Darren Waller Sam LaPorta Dallas Goedert Evan Engram Pat Freiermuth Hunter Henry Kyle Pitts Luke Musgrave Tyler Higbee Jake Ferguson David Njoku Gerald Everett Dalton Kincaid Hayden Hurst Cole Kmet Taysom Hill Chigoziem Okonkwo Dawson Knox Dalton Schultz Juwan Johnson Zach Ertz Donald Parham Logan Thomas Cade Otton Noah Fant Diontae Johnson