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    Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Sep 22nd 2023, 6:39pm EDT

Fitz’s Week 3 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

Two weeks into the 2023 NFL season …

It’s funny how confident we are in August about our ability to make accurate predictions about what will happen in the NFL and in fantasy football. Then the curtain opens on the new season, and …

“Oh wow, I didn’t see that coming.”

Some of the more unpredictable things actually are predictable if you read the right tea leaves. My colleagues Derek Brown and Thor Nystrom were driving the Puka Nacua bandwagon all summer. I don’t think DBro and Thor could have imagined Puka making this kind of a splash, but they fell hard for Puka when they watched him at the Senior Bowl and touted him throughout the fantasy draft season.

Puka’s early-season success is very real, though he probably won’t break all of the receiving records he’s currently on pace to break. But it’s not always easy to discern what’s real and what’s fishy when we’re dealing with the vagaries of small sample sizes. Obviously, a lot of things will even out and normalize as we get deeper into the season.

How deep into the season do we need to get before we can verify results as being “real”? There’s no right answer.

Nerds like me (and maybe like you) are busy digging beneath the surface stats, trying to uncover evidence that might validate or invalidate early results. Sometimes, we find useful nuggets to help make a case for or against early-season results being “real.” But sometimes, we have to throw up our hands and concede, “I don’t know.”

Every week, we get more visual evidence of what players can and can’t do and more data to support our notions about the fantasy value of various players. We’ll get closer and closer to the fantasy football truths we’re looking to uncover. It’s just not clear when we’ll know for sure.

“Are we there yet?” we ask from the back seat.

“Not yet,” Mom and Dad tell us. “Not yet.”

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 3 Tiers & Rankings

Quarterbacks

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

It would be melodramatic to suggest that Justin Fields has reached a career crossroads, but it feels like he’s reached a crossroads for his 2023 season. The QB16 in fantasy scoring after two weeks, Fields has thrown three interceptions and taken 10 sacks. He has 62 rushing yards and a TD run, but Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has called only a handful of designed runs for a quarterback who had 1,143 rushing yards last season. Fields has vowed to play less robotically and more instinctively. I interpret that as an indication he’ll run more aggressively on Sunday when the Bears face the Chiefs in Kansas City. Fields is sure to be at the crux of many start/sit dilemmas this week. I’m ranking him aggressively and recommending that you start him despite the bad start to his season.

Conditions may be right for a perfect storm of Kirk Cousins fantasy points this season. Cousins’ yearly finishes in fantasy scoring since joining the Vikings in 2018: QB13, QB18, QB11, QB11, QB7. It’s possible Cousins could crack the top five this year — an impressive feat for a quarterback who adds little value with his rushing. The Vikings’ defense is bad, which isn’t exactly a new development, but this year it’s “make Baker Mayfield look like Drew Brees” bad. The Vikings’ running game has been completely ineffective, and the trade for Cam Akers is a sign that the team is panicking about it. A substandard defense and running game set up Cousins for weekly shootouts. A bad offensive line could potentially short-circuit the Cousins’ fireworks, but in Minnesota’s offensive line held up well (despite dealing with injuries) last week against an Eagles pass rush that was historically good in 2022, and Cousins went off for 364 passing yards and four TDs. I think we’re close to classifying Cousins as a weekly must-start, and you should absolutely play him this week at home vs. a Chargers defense that currently ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass.

Dak Prescott might be the bizarro Kirk Cousins in terms of 2023 setups. While everything is pointing to high pass volume for Cousins, the Cowboys might not need Prescott to be much more than a game manager. The Dallas defense is top-drawer, and Cowboys had coach Mike McCarthy has already fed RB Tony Pollard 39 carries. Prescott threw only 24 passes in the Cowboys 40-0 destruction of the Cardinals in Week 1 and finished QB29 that week. He threw 37 passes in Week 2, but only because the Cowboys ran a whopping 87 offensive plays when the Zach Wilson-led Jets offense proved incapable of holding the ball. Prescott has a nice matchup against the Cardinals this week, but he may have to pile up points early in order to have a decent day, since the Cowboys are 12.5-point favorites and might be able to take the air out of the ball in the second half.

Clearly hindered by the lingering effects of a calf injury, Joe Burrow is averaging 152 passing yards per game and 4.2 yards per attempt. There’s been speculation that Burrow might not play against the Rams on Monday. Even if he does play, I’d be inclined to sit him despite the favorable matchup. Nothing we’ve seen so far suggests that a big Joe Burrow game is just around the corner.

Running Backs

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Congratulations if you had the good sense to draft Raheem Mostert this year. Available cheaply in almost every fantasy draft, Mostert is the valuable RB who was hiding in plain sight. He’s currently the RB5 in half-PPR fantasy scoring, with three touchdowns in his first two games. Last week, Mostert ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns against a New England defense that gave up only three TD runs to running backs last season. Maybe Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will work in Jeff Wilson when he comes off IR or try to get rookie De’Von Achane more involved. But Mostert is intimately familiar with McDaniel’s system since they’ve been together for years, first in San Francisco, now in Miami, and he’s a better RB than he’s given credit for. Mostert is notoriously brittle, but you have to start him as long as he’s healthy.

The trade that sent Cam Akers from the Rams to the Vikings solidifies Kyren Williams‘ status as a must-start in fantasy. Williams is leading all RBs in snaps (129) and routes run (76), and he’s RB2 in half-PPR fantasy scoring behind only Christian McCaffrey. Rams head coach Sean Payton seems fully committed to Williams. The only question is whether the 5-9, 195-pound Williams will be able to withstand this sort of usage. It’s possible we’ll see McVay start to work in No. 2 RB Ronnie Rivers, but Williams is fantasy gold as long as his usage remains so robust. (Mea culpa: I thought Williams was too small and slow to ever be more than a bit player. Whoops.)

The Cam Akers trade might be an existential threat to Alexander Mattison‘s season-long viability, but Akers poses no threat to Mattison’s Week 3 playability. Despite his sluggish start, Mattison is a high-end RB2 this week in a plus matchup against the Chargers.

I was bullish on Najee Harris during draft season. That’s looking like a misstep, as Harris and the Pittsburgh offense as a whole have struggled. But let’s withhold judgment for a week or two. The Steelers opened against the 49ers, who have one of the best run defenses in the league, and the Browns, whose run defense appears to be greatly improved. If Najee isn’t able to get it going against the Raiders and Texans the next two weeks, then by all means, park him on your bench.

Zack Moss returned from a broken arm last week and played all but one of the Colts’ offensive snaps against the Texans, rolling up 18-88-1 rushing and 4-19-0 receiving. It’s possible the fantasy value of Moss will go up in a puff of smoke when Jonathan Taylor comes off injured reserve in Week 5. But Moss has completely displaced Deon Jackson, and with heavy usage likely on tap this week as well, Moss is a midrange RB2, even with a tricky matchup against the Ravens.

Pressed into starting duty because of a rib injury to Kenneth Gainwell, recent trade acquisition D’Andre Swift went off against the Vikings last week, rushing 28 times for 175 yards and a touchdown. What happens if Gainwell, who started for the Eagles in Week 1, returns in Week 2? Gainwell out-snapped Swift 41-19 and out-touched him 18-2 in the season opener. The guess here is that Swift is the genie who won’t be stuffed back into his bottle anytime soon but that the Eagles will still give Gainwell considerable playing time. I’m ranking them as if we’ll see roughly a 60/40 workload split in Swift’s favor.

Send Josh Kelley to your bench if Austin Ekeler is able to return from an ankle injury. But if Ekeler is out again, Kelley will be a decent fantasy option this week against a Vikings run defense that D’Andre Swift laid to waste last week. Kelley is by no means a gifted runner, and his 13-39-0 rushing day against the Titans in Week 2 was a letdown to the fantasy managers who started him. But the Titans have a terrific run defense. The Vikings do not. I understand the hesitation to throw Kelley back into the fray but don’t spite-bench him.

With Justice Hill out with a foot injury, Gus Edwards looks like a solid RB2 or flex option this week against the Colts. The ongoing concern with Edwards is that his lack of usage in the passing game gives him an unstable floor. But if Hill is out this week, Edwards should get enough carries to stabilize his floor, particularly with the Ravens favored by more than a touchdown in a home game against the Colts.

People spent a lot of FAAB money on Jerome Ford this week. It’s not the Browns’ signing of Kareem Hunt that makes me fearful for Ford investors; it’s Cleveland’s upcoming schedule. Over the next four weeks, the Browns face the Titans, Ravens and 49ers — three of the better run defenses in the league — with a bye crammed in between. You might not be able to comfortably start Ford until Week 7. And by that time — who knows? — maybe Hunt will have forced his way into a significant role.

The Saints’ backfield is somewhat of a mystery this week. Jamaal Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and Alvin Kamara is serving the last of a three-game suspension. Rookie Kendre Miller is returning from a hamstring injury, and veteran Tony Jones figures to get some work. I wouldn’t feel comfortable using either Miller or Jones against the Packers this week, even though Green Bay’s run defense is perennially soft. It’s possible Taysom Hill leads the Saints in carries this week.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

More than one fantasy analyst has noted that injuries to Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, et al. are making this look like a good year to have gone with the Zero-RB draft strategy. On the other hand, QB injuries are kneecapping the fantasy value of some top wide receivers, so it’s not like all the Zero-RB advocates have come away unscathed. A lot of people were eager to draft Garrett Wilson somewhere near the first-round/second-round turn, but a season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers has turned Wilson into a tricky start/sit call for some of his investors. Joe Burrow appears to be greatly diminished by a lingering calf injury, which means lower fantasy expectations for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. There’s some doubt about Burrow’s Week 3 availability. For now, I’m ranking Chase WR8 and Higgins WR20 based on the assumption Burrow is able to play against the Rams on Monday night. If Burrow is out, Chase will fall into WR2 range and Higgins into WR3 range. Garrett Wilson is now a weekly denizen of low-end WR2/high-end WR3 range.

I guess there’s no longer any question about whether to start Puka Nacua every week, huh?

George Pickens reportedly tweaked a hamstring last weekend, but he played against the Browns on Monday night and had 4-127-1 on 10 targets, highlighted by a 71-yard catch-and-run touchdown on which his hamstring looked just fine, thank you very much. A long touchdown spritzes perfume on any underlying inefficiency, but we should still consider it a good sign that Pickens drew 10 targets in the Steelers’ first game without Diontae Johnson (hamstring). The inability to consistently draw targets was the most worrisome blemish on Pickens’ profile coming into the 2023 season. As a rookie, Pickens didn’t draw more than eight targets in any game, and he didn’t draw more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on. It was good to see Steelers QB Kenny Pickett force-feeding Pickens on Monday night. Start the young receiver with confidence this week against the Raiders, even though the Pittsburgh offense as a whole has been extremely wobbly over the first two weeks.

Mike Evans had a smash game last week, racking up 6-171-1 against the Bears, but maybe it’s Chris Godwin‘s turn this week. The Buccaneers’ difficult Week 3 matchup against the Eagles actually sets up well for Godwin. The Eagles had 70 sacks last season, two off the all-time record held by the 1984 Chicago Bears. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield will want to make quick throws this week to keep the Philly pass rush at bay, and that’s probably better for Godwin, a slot receiver than it is for Evans, a boundary receiver. And Godwin isn’t going to be running most of his routes against the Eagles’ outside cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradbury, as Evans will be. Godwin is going to be running most of his routes into the coverage of slot corner Mario Goodrich, a former undrafted free agent who’s in his second season.

As noted by John Paulsen of 4for4.com, Gabe Davis has scored 18 touchdowns over his last 26 games (playoffs included) dating back to December 2021. Davis can be streaky, but keep him in your lineup or risk missing out on the good stuff.

Nico Collins‘ Week 2 performance was an eye-opener. The third-year receiver had 7-146-1 against the Colts and looked like a superstar in the making. Collins ran filthy, ankle-breaking routes. He was a tackle-breaking bully after the catch. He made a spectacular leaping grab in the back of the end zone for a touchdown. Collins looks like the real deal. The Texans’ passing game is developing quickly. Don’t be afraid to start Collins even though he’s playing with a rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud.

The surface stats are better than the underlying usage numbers for Vikings rookie Jordan Addison. So far, he has 7 catches for 133 yards on 11 targets, and he’s scored a touchdown in each of his first two NFL games. Addison’s snap share in Week 1 was 56%, and he played 22 fewer snaps than K.J. Osborn. In Week 2, Addison was in on 69% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps but still played 16 fewer snaps than Osborn. Granted, Addison has outplayed Osborn and may soon replace the veteran in two-receiver sets. But the usage does not point to Addison being a top-40 WR option this week, even in an appealing matchup vs. the Chargers.

Tight Ends

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

This could be a good week to play Taysom Hill. The Saints will be without RBs Jamaal Williams (hamstring) and Alvin Kamara (suspension). Rookie Kendre Miller is coming back from a hamstring injury of his own and probably won’t get a big workload in his NFL debut, and veteran RB Tony Jones is just a jobber. Hill had 9-75-0 rushing against the Panthers in Week 2, and we might see a lot of him when the Saints visit Green Bay on Sunday. I have Hill ranked inside the top 10 at the TE position this week.

Hunter Henry already has two TD catches, and he’s been heavily involved in the New England passing game, with 11 catches for 108 yards on 13 targets. Henry has a nice matchup this week against the Dolphins, who have given up the second-most receptions (16) to tight ends this season. Miami has also given up a pair of TD catches to tight ends this season after yielding 10 touchdowns to TEs a year ago.

Jake Ferguson hasn’t exactly been a model of efficiency this season, with 22 receiving yards on 11 targets. But Ferguson leads all tight ends with seven red-zone targets, and he gets a favorable Week 3 matchup against a Cardinals defense that gave up a league-high 101 receptions and 12 touchdowns to TEs in 2022. Ferguson is playable in Week 3.

The Saints continue to be a horrible matchup for opposing tight ends. New Orleans gave up the fewest receiving yards and fantasy points to TEs a year ago. Two games into the 2023 season, the Saints have given up only three catches and 20 receiving yards to tight ends. With the Packers hosting the Saints this weekend, leave Green Bay rookie Luke Musgrave on your bench.

Zach Ertz has 12 receptions on 18 targets. But Ertz has given us empty-calorie PPR production. He has 77 receiving yards and no touchdowns. Ertz is averaging 6.4 yards per catch and 4.3 yards per target. I realize TE is a challenging position for fantasy managers, but it would take extremely stormy seas at the position for me to consider starting Ertz.

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