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    Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Sep 15th 2023, 7:12am EDT

Fitz’s Week 2 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

It’s nice to have fantasy football back in our lives. The days are more fun when we have fantasy teams to fret over and are faced with the challenges of trying to manage a fake football team to glory.

But fantasy football is a zero-sum game, of course, and for every Week 1 winner, there was a Week 1 loser. Many of us were forced to remember what defeat tastes like. To me it tastes like green pepper — the food I find more vile than any other. Travis Kelce, Christian Watson, Drake London and Najee Harris are among my most heavily rostered players this year, so I was treated to a green pepper stir-fry in Week 1.

“Process over results” is a popular catchphrase in fantasy football.

I hate it.

Give me results over process every time. “Process over results” strikes me as a slogan people use to absolve themselves from blame when things go awry.

As much as I hate the phrase “process over results,” it does convey at least one important message: If the process is sound, the results will be positive more often than not.

Although it’s not something fantasy analysts like to admit, luck plays a big factor in our little game. A good friend in my favorite home league drafted J.K. Dobbins and Aaron Rodgers. He lost both to season-ending injuries in Week 1, so he’s 0-1 with a badly depleted roster. Sometimes the fantasy gods single you out for punishment.

But for most of our 0-1 teams, the situation isn’t catastrophic. Things simply didn’t work out in Week 1.

It is what it is. We’re on to Cincinnati.

If you’re 0-1, don’t make silly trades out of panic. Don’t make ill-advised start decisions because you believe you “need to take a chance” or “need to gamble on upside.” Don’t let desperation convince you that poor decisions are actually shrewd decisions, or else your season might quickly get away from you.

Stay the course, friends. If you’ve played fantasy football long enough, you know how often things fail to go according to plan. Just keep doing your homework and making the best possible decisions with the information available. That’s all you can do.

And don’t fall into the trap of overmanaging. Some people are convinced that the more moves they make, the better off their team will be. But restless micromanagement rarely produces good results. Resist the urge to churn your roster like an Amish butter maker.

So you’re 0-1. It’s no big deal. You’ll have forgotten all about your Week 1 loss in early January when you’ve banked your championship winnings and are dining on steak and lobster.

Just make sure it’s not pepper steak.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 2 Tiers & Rankings

QUARTERBACKS

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Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

Tua Tagovailoa reminded us what he’s capable of in Week 1, nuking the Chargers for 466 yards and three touchdowns. It was reminiscent of Tua’s outburst against the Ravens in Week 2 of 2022, when he threw for 469 yards and six (!) touchdowns. I had Tua ranked QB13 in my draft rankings, but that ranking baked in the concussion risk for a player whose season could be abruptly put on hold or completely derailed by another brain injury. As long as Tua is healthy, he’s a weekly QB1. That applies this week even in a potentially tricky road matchup against the Patriots, who held Jalen Hurts to 170 passing yards and 5.2 yards per attempt last week.

After an alarming Week 1 showing against the Browns, Joe Burrow has another tough divisional matchup against the Ravens. Maybe the wet weather was partly to blame for the Bengals’ shabby offensive performance in Week 1 (142 total yards, six first downs). I’m reluctant to attribute the poor performance to the calf injury that cost Burrow much of training camp and the entire preseason. I have Burrow ranked as a lower-end QB1 this week and would start him in most cases, but I don’t blame Burrow stakeholders for feeling uneasy.

QB10 may seem like a mincing, fraidy-cat ranking for Colts rookie Anthony Richardson, whose exciting debut against the Jaguars made him the QB4 for Week 1. I’m just not sold that the Colts are going to be as pass-heavy as they were in Week 1, with Richardson completing 24-of-37 throws for 223 yards with one TD and one INT. Not surprisingly, Richardson averaged an inefficient 6.0 yards per attempt, and if the passing volume shrivels in any given week, he’ll need to be uber-productive as a runner to make up for it. Not that he can’t be — Richardson will be among the QB rushing leaders this year barring injury — but I want to see more before believing that Richardson will provide decent passing numbers most weeks.

Don’t give up on Daniel Jones. The Cowboys and Jets are probably the two worst matchups a quarterback can have. Level-headed Josh Allen investors aren’t panicking after a bad season opener vs. the Jets, and Jones investors shouldn’t freak out about his forgettable Sunday night vs. the Cowboys. Danny Dimes gets a much softer matchup this week against the talent-challenged Cardinals.

I’m not fading Geno Smith because he threw for only 112 yards in the Seahawks’ season opener against the Rams; I’m fading Geno because he’s going to be without his two starting offensive tackles, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, this Sunday in Detroit. Seattle’s backup tackles will have to try to deal with the Lions DE Steve Hutchinson, a human wrecking ball who never takes a play off. It’s a suboptimal setup for Geno.

What an interesting performance for Jordan Love in his first-ever Week 1 start for the Packers. On first and second downs, Love was 7-of-17 for 104 yards (6.1 YPA). On third and fourth downs, Love was 8-of-10 for 141 yards (14.1 YPA) and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. (Hat tip to Rich Hribar of Sharp Football for that nugget.) I’m not ready to start Love unconditionally in 1QB leagues, but his season debut was encouraging.

RUNNING BACKS

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Tier 7

Start Najee Harris, who was done in by a bad matchup and bad game script in Pittsburgh’s blowout loss to San Francisco in Week 1. The setup for Najee is much better in Week 2. The Steelers will be without WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring), and offensive coordinator Matt Canada may try to hide Kenny Pickett after his poor performance vs. the 49ers. It sets up for a run-heavy Week 2 gameplan against the Browns, who allowed the fifth-most rushing yards and sixth-most fantasy points to RBs in 2022. In two games against the Browns last year, Najee had 15-56-1 and 23-80-1 rushing, with four combined catches. The first of those games was in Week 3, when Najee was clearly still dealing with a Lisfranc injury. He’s a solid fantasy play this week.

Breece Hall had a 32% snap share in Week 1, but would you really consider keeping him on your bench after the show he put on Monday night against the Bills? The kid is magical. So much for any worries that he wouldn’t have the same juice he had before tearing his ACL last October. Hall is miles better than Dalvin Cook. With Aaron Rodgers out for the season, the Jets have to figure out a way to move the ball despite substandard quarterbacking. Hall is a much better solution to that problem than Cook is.

I know James Conner‘s usage is appealing. He had 14 carries and five receptions in Week 1. But his efficiency is bound to be substandard in the anemic Arizona offense. Conner’s 19 touches in Week 1 netted him 60 yards. He averaged 1.6 yards per catch. And we know the Cardinals aren’t scoring many touchdowns this year. The promise of reliable volume props up Conner’s floor, but he has the low-hanging ceiling of a basement rec room.

With Austin Ekeler doubtful for Week 2, Joshua Kelley slides into low-end RB2 range. I can’t go any higher than that with Kelley, a modestly talented RB going up against a tough Tennessee run defense.

Justice Hill scored two touchdowns last week, but his eight carries netted nine yards. Hill has been in the league since 2019 and hasn’t been able to get any serious traction as a worthwhile fantasy contributor. I’m skeptical we see it happen now just because J.K. Dobbins is out for the season. I have Hill ranked as a low-end RB3 this week and have more faith in Gus Edwards.

Don’t be fooled by the 22 carries that Cam Akers had last week against the Seahawks. Kyren Williams out-snapped Akers 26-4 in the first half of that game, but Akers still wound up with a boatload of carries because Sean McVay let him salt the game away when the Rams were leading in the fourth quarter. This week, the Rams play the 49ers, who are a skull-and-crossbones matchup for running backs — especially running backs who aren’t prominently featured in the passing game. Don’t start Cam Akers this week. You probably shouldn’t start Williams either (though he’d be a better play than Akers).

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Tier 6

Tier 7

Welcome to must-start status, Brandon Aiyuk. More than one 49ers beat writer noted that Aiyuk was the standout performer in San Francisco’s training camp on either side of the ball. Aiyuk topped 1,000 yards for the first time last season, and he looked ready to take another big step forward with his 8-129-2 performance in the Niners’ Week 1 thrashing of the Steelers.

It’s too early to mash the panic button on D.J. Moore, even though the Bears’ passing game was thoroughly disjointed in an unsightly Week 1 loss to the Packers. I thought the Packers would use a lot of zone coverage against the Bears, because zone allows defenders to face the line of scrimmage and react more quickly to a quarterback who likes to run, as Justin Fields does. But no, the Packers played a lot of man and had Jaire Alexander cover D.J. Moore on a lot of Moore’s snaps. Alexander is one of the best cover men in the game, so I’m inclined to give Moore a mulligan for his Week 1 disappearance. The Fields-to-Moore connection was reportedly clicking throughout training camp, and we saw that connection work well in the preseason. This is not the time to bail out on Moore.

Sorry, Garrett Wilson investors. There’s no other way to spin it: Aaron Rodgers‘ tearing of his Achilles severely damages Wilson’s value. Wilson should still be in your lineup in most cases — perhaps not if you’re in an eight-team league – but his ceiling is far lower with Zach Wilson quarterbacking the Jets. Wilson still managed to generate more than 1,100 receiving yards last year while catching passes from Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco. But a 100-catch, 1,300-yard season is off the table, and it would be a shock if Wilson sniffed double-digit touchdowns, even though he had a terrific TD catch in Week 1. I have Wilson ranked WR20 in a tough matchup against the Cowboys this week, and even that modest ranking feels overly optimistic.

As noted in the QB section, the absence of Seahawks offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas could be a major problem for the Seattle offense against Detroit on Sunday. You’re most likely starting D.K. Metcalf no matter what, but tread lightly with any lineup decisions involving Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

It will be interesting to see how George Pickens fares against the Browns this week with Diontae Johnson out due to a hamstring injury. Pickens is outrageously talented but has been operating as sort of a clear-out receiver, running mostly deeper routes while Johnson operates in the short and intermediate areas. Johnson’s absence might funnel a small handful of extra targets Pickens’ way, but I’m reluctant to give Pickens a huge bump in the rankings just because he’s now Pittsburgh’s de facto WR1.

It was a good idea to leave Gabe Davis on your bench last week in a bad matchup against the Jets. Feel free to fire him up this week in a much more alluring matchup

No player has generated more discussion in the run-up to Week 2 than Puka Nacua. Nacua’s 15 targets against the Seahawks were the most for a rookie receiver making his NFL debut since the NFL began keeping track of targets. Could it be a fluke? I mean, Kenbrell Thompkins had 14 targets in his debut with the New England Patriots in 2013 and never became a useful fantasy asset, aside from a decent first month in the league. I tend to think Puka’s Week 1 performance was legit. Thompkins only turned his 14 targets into 4-42-0 back in Week 1 of 2013. Puka had 10-119-0 against a non-terrible Seahawks pass defense and passed the eye test with flying colors. The guess here is that Cooper Kupp won’t be back as good as new when he’s eligible to come off the IR in Week 5. He wouldn’t have been sent halfway across the country to a specialist in Minnesota if this were a run-of-the-mill hamstring injury. Puka isn’t always going to look as good or draw as many targets as he did in Week 1, but at the very least he should be regarded as a fantasy WR3 going forward.

Even a pass catcher as good as Drake London is at risk of an occasional disappearing act in Falcons head coach Arthur Smith’s ultra-run-heavy offense. London will bounce back … but possibly not this week against a Green Bay defense that’s much better against the pass than it is against the run.

What we saw in the Jaguars’ preseason games continued into the regular season: It was Zay Jones, not Christian Kirk, playing with Calvin Ridley in two-receiver sets. That generally bodes ill for Kirk’s fantasy value, although I rank him as a low-end WR3 in a potential shootout against the Chiefs. As for Jones, he’s a viable weekly WR3 or flex option.

TIGHT ENDS

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Tier 5

Thank goodness Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are tentatively expected to return from injuries that kept them out of action in Week 1, because the TE position is looking as gross as ever. We thought Darren Waller might offer us a safe harbor at the position this year, but now Waller is dealing with a hamstring injury. He insists he’s playing, but it’s worrisome that a player who’s missed 14 games over the last two seasons is already dinged up.

Rookie Sam LaPorta‘s 5-39-0 stat line from the Lions’ opening-night victory over the Chiefs might not have moved the needle for his fantasy teams, but his Week 1 usage bodes well for his rookie-year impact. LaPorta played 83% of the Lions’ offensive snaps and drew a target on 19.2% of his routes.

LaPorta wasn’t the only rookie tight end with exciting Week 1 usage. Bills first-rounder Dalton Kincaid had an 80% snap share in his debut and ran 39 routes. His 4-26-0 stat line won’t quicken any pulses, but what should quicken pulses is the reality that Kincaid operated as Buffalo’s primary slot receiver.

There were reports that Patriots TE Hunter Henry was Mac Jones‘ favorite target throughout training camp. Henry had 5-61-1 against the Eagles last week, playing 79% of New England’s offensive snaps. Consider him a low-end TE1 this week against the Dolphins.

Hayden Hurst put up a nice 5-41-1 stat line in Week 1, but keep him on your bench this week. He has a prohibitive Week 2 matchup against a Saints defense that allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends last year and opened the 2023 season by shutting out Titans TE Chig Okonkwo.

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