Justin Tucker was the consensus first kicker taken off the board in 2023, yet he currently sits outside the top 12 at the position with 16 fantasy points in two games. He enters Week 3 with fewer fantasy points than a few kickers rostered in fewer than 5% of leagues, and his 16 points on the season are two less than what rookie Brandon Aubrey scored last week against the Jets.
Two games are not a valid sample size to make any decisions, especially on a kicker with a pedigree like Tucker, who has been a top-eight kicker every year since 2015. Although there are some discouraging trends of the Ravens being more efficient in the red zone, you should not panic yet and move on from Tucker. He did post 11 points last week against the Bengals, and he is poised for another strong game this week vs. Indianapolis.
Evan McPherson and Daniel Carlson are also kickers who have not lived up to their draft cost so far in 2023. Both players are in scuffling offenses that rank 32 and 30th, respectively, in yards per game, and difficult schedules to start the year have negatively affected their production. While I am not yet hitting the panic button on these two, the hot seat is getting a bit warm, and fantasy managers may need to make a pivot.
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Fantasy Football Week 3 Kicker Rankings & Waiver Wire Advice (2023)
(Rostership percentages courtesy of Yahoo!)
Week 2 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers:
Brandon Aubrey (DAL) vs. New York Jets: 7% Rostered
The Cowboys made a bit of a gamble in going with a converted soccer player as their starting kicker in what appears to be a playoff-bound team with Super Bowl aspirations. That gamble is paying off so far, with Aubrey making all five field goal tries in an 18-point explosion on Sunday. I mentioned him as an add last week, and he will continue to be a waiver target until his roster percentage gets around 80%.
Jake Moody (SF) @ LA Rams: 46% roster percentage on Yahoo
The 49ers are another team with eyes on the Super Bowl relying on a rookie kicker this season, and their investment in Jake Moody has paid off so far. The former Michigan Wolverine has made six field goals in two games, including a 56-yarder against the Rams on Sunday. Like Aubrey, it would not surprise me to see Moody’s roster rate jump up near the 80% mark by Week 4.
Week 2 Dud Performances From Heavily-Owned Kickers
Harrison Butker (KC) vs. Chicago Bears: 98% Rostered
Harrison Butker is widely considered a great fantasy kicker because he plays with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. While he averaged just over eight points per game in his first three seasons, he has been a pedestrian 6.5 points per game performer since 2020. I’m not saying you should drop him, but he does have a fool’s gold feeling around him and is off to another slow start in 2023.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 3 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at WAS | -6.5 | 44.5 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 33 | 68F, 13 MPH Wind |
| 2 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. IND | -8.5 | 44.0 | 12 | 28 | 12 | 52 | 63F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 3 | 10 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at ARI | -12 | 43.0 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 44 | Dome |
| 4 | 6 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | at MIN | 1.5 | 54.0 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 38 | Dome |
| 5 | 2 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. CHI | -13.5 | 47.5 | 12 | 25 | 9 | 46 | 72F, 13 MPH Wind |
| 6 | 4 | Jake Moody | SF | vs. NYG | -10.5 | 45.0 | 23 | 19 | 7 | 49 | 72F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 5 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at TB | -5 | 45.0 | 11 | 25 | 11 | 47 | 83F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 8 | 11 | Riley Patterson | DET | vs. ATL | -3 | 45.0 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 47 | Dome |
| 9 | 9 | Brandon McManus | JAC | vs. HOU | -8 | 44.0 | 29 | 11 | 22 | 62 | 80F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 10 | 23 | Blake Grupe | NO | at GB | 2 | 43.5 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 68F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 11 | 12 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. LAR | -1.5 | 43.0 | 12 | 11 | 32 | 55 | 72F. 8 MPH Wind Light Rain |
| 12 | 13 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. PIT | pk | 44.0 | 19 | 11 | 30 | 60 | Dome |
| 13 | 14 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. DEN | -6 | 48.0 | 23 | 19 | 1 | 43 | 85F, Rain |
| 14 | 8 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. CAR | -5 | 42.5 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 76 | 65F, Light Wind |
| 15 | 18 | Nick Folk | TEN | at CLE | 3.5 | 40.0 | 32 | 6 | 21 | 59 | 70F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 16 | 7 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | at DET | 3 | 45.0 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 61 | Dome |
| 17 | 15 | Greg Joseph | MIN | vs. LAC | -1.5 | 54.0 | 19 | 19 | 8 | 46 | Dome |
| 18 | 17 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | vs. TEN | -3 | 4′ | 3 | 25 | 6 | 34 | 70F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 19 | 16 | Wil Lutz | DEN | at MIA | 8 | 45.0 | 30 | 14 | 16 | 60 | 85F, Rain |
| 20 | 19 | Graham Gano | NYG | at SF | 10.5 | 45.0 | 15 | 14 | 23 | 52 | 72F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 21 | 20 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. PHI | 5 | 45.0 | 27 | 2 | 13 | 42 | 83F, 9 MPH Wind |
| 22 | 21 | Matt Gay | IND | at BAL | 8.5 | 44.0 | 3 | 28 | 20 | 51 | 63F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 23 | 22 | Brett Maher | LAR | at CIN | 1.5 | 43.0 | 23 | 31 | 2 | 56 | 72F. 8 MPH Wind Light Rain |
| 24 | 24 | Anders Carlson | GB | vs. NO | -2 | 43.5 | 2 | 31 | 26 | 59 | 68F, 15 MPH Wind |
| 25 | 25 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at LV | pk | 44.0 | 22 | 11 | 31 | 64 | Dome |
| 26 | 29 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at JAC | 8 | 44.0 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 80F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 27 | 27 | Joey Slye | WAS | vs. BUF | 6.5 | 44.5 | 8 | 19 | 19 | 46 | 68F, 13 MPH Wind |
| 28 | 32 | Chad Ryland | NE | at NYJ | -3 | 37.0 | 7 | 28 | 14 | 49 | 68F, 13 MPH Wind |
| 29 | 30 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at SEA | 5 | 42.5 | 31 | 5 | 28 | 64 | 65F, Light Wind |
| 30 | 31 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | vs. NE | 3 | 37.0 | 15 | 1 | 29 | 45 | 68F, 13 MPH Wind |
| 31 | 26 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at KC | 13.5 | 47.5 | 3 | 25 | 27 | 55 | 72F, 13 MPH Wind |
| 32 | 28 | Matt Prater | ARI | vs. DAL | 12 | 43.0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 30 | Dome |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Contrarian Kicker Plays
Based on all the variables outlined above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 3.
Riley Patterson (DET) vs. ATL: 43% Rostered
It may seem a bit odd to recommend a kicker with just one field goal attempt in two weeks, especially if that kicker plays on a team with a head coach that goes for it on four down as often as Dan Campbell. But what I like about this matchup is a positive game script, playing indoors and a defense that ranks 15th in red zone defense.
Blake Grupe (NO) @ Green Bay: 1% Rostered
This one is a bit of a reach, but Blake Grupe has one of the best K Scores on the week, and the Saints have struggled in the red zone over the first two games with Derek Carr under center.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brandon Aubrey (DAL) vs. NYJ: 3% Rostereded
- ECR Rank: 16
- My Rank: 10
- Week 2 Finish: 1
Not only did Aubrey finish as a top-12 player this week, he came through with the K1 performance with five field goals and an extra point. With the Dallas defense continuing to shut people down and create positive game scripts, Aubrey looks like he is this year’s breakout player and should be rostered in all leagues.
Anders Carlson (GB) @ Atlanta: 1% Rostered
ECR Rank: 18
My Rank: 8
Week 2 Finish: Kicker Tied 18
This was my first big miss of the year. While Anders Carlson did give a floor of six fantasy points and the game script was close, the rookie kicker managed just one field goal and three extra points.
Waiver Wire
Top Add: Brandon Aubrey (DAL) vs. NYJ: 7% Rostered
Aubrey has passed Cameron Dicker as my favorite early-season waive addition, and he should be rostered in all formats. The Dallas defense will continue to give him positive game scrips for blow-out field goals, and the chance of a completely lopsided loss is not really in play.
Other Players to Consider
- Cameron Dicker (LAC) vs. NYJ: 65% Rostered
- Nick Folk (TEN) vs. LAC: 28% Rostered
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