A Monday Night Football doubleheader is still on the docket. However, there were plenty of ups, downs and interesting happenings to dig into from Thursday’s and Sunday’s games. Let’s look at a few pleasant surprises and disappointments.
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Top 3 Surprises
Sean McVay Is Fantasy Football Gold
The Rams lost against their division-foe 49ers in Week 2. Nevertheless, McVay and Matthew Stafford led a fantasy-friendly offense. Puka Nacua is the headline-grabber through two weeks. The rookie had 20 targets, 15 receptions, 147 receiving yards, two rushes and four rushing yards against the 49ers. He’s a locked-in fantasy starter until further notice.
However, Tutu Atwell had another productive game (nine targets, seven receptions, 77 receiving yards, one rush and five rushing yards), making him a priority addition. Yet, the fun doesn’t stop there. Kyren Williams followed an eye-catching, albeit inefficient, season debut in the opener with another workhorse showing, producing 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, 10 targets and six receptions.
At McVay’s heart, he seems to prefer a bell-cow running back. For now, the fickle McVay is riding with Williams, and fantasy gamers should be rolling with him, too.
The Eagles Stumbled Backwards Into a Monster
Kenneth Gainwell played 62% of Philadelphia’s offensive snaps in Week 1 before he was inactive in Week 2 with a rib injury. Gainwell was adequate in the opener as the team’s featured back. Still, he might have been Wally Pipped by the more explosive D’Andre Swift in Week 2.
The former Lion played only 29% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps in Week 1. Swift had one carry, three rushing yards, two targets, one reception and zero receiving yards in his complementary role in Week 1 before exploding in Week 2. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Swift had a 75% snap share, 28 carries, 175 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, three targets, three receptions and six receiving yards against the Vikings in Week 2.
He was measurably explosive and shifty. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Swift forced nine missed tackles as a runner, had three rushes for 10-plus yards, one rush for 15-plus yards and 3.32 Yards After Contact per Attempt. It would be coaching malpractice for them to attempt to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Gamers should excitedly treat Swift as a high-upside RB2.
Fantasy Gamers Love Carnivals
Veteran fantasy scribe Scott Pianowski coined the expression fantasy carnival to describe teams that produce fantasy goodies for both teams. Essentially, these teams have good enough offenses to force their opponents to keep their foot on the accelerator but lousy enough defenses to create shootouts. It’s the ideal recipe for fantasy points.
The Lions and Seahawks fell under that umbrella last year and might be fantasy carnivals again in 2023. The previously discussed Rams also appear to fit the bill through two weeks. However, the Colts might be the most surprising addition to this category.
According to Rotoviz’s pace tool, the Colts played at the fastest pace (21.2 seconds per snap) in neutral game scripts in Week 1. Indy scored 21 points and yielded 31 to the Jaguars last week. This week, they exploded for 31 points and coughed up 20 to the Texans.
Anthony Richardson was off to a fast start before he was evaluated for a concussion and ruled out. Fortunately, the offense stayed on track with Gardner Minshew under center. And after the Jags ran 69 plays against the Colts in Week 1, the Texans ran 79 in Week 2. Gamers should keep an eye on the matchups for the Seahawks, Lions, Rams and Colts when making start/sit decisions, considering streamers or making DFS selections, as they could be routine sources of shootouts based on the first two weeks of action.
Top 2 Disappointments
The RB Deadzone Strikes Again
The rise of Williams in LA’s backfield came at the expense of Cam Akers. He was a healthy inactive. Gamers should cut him, even in deeper leagues.
Dameon Pierce‘s struggles aren’t entirely his fault. Houston’s offensive line is a trainwreck.
Still, Pierce has failed to live up to expectations relative to his average draft position (ADP).
Alexander Mattison has also lived down to the nickname “Midison” bestowed upon him by his detractors. Minnesota has passed at a blistering 73% rate in neutral game scripts through two contests.
The pass-happy approach hasn’t been kind to Mattison’s fantasy value. Yet, the offensive tendencies are the least of his problems. He’s rushed for only 62 scoreless yards on 19 attempts and corraled six receptions for 21 yards and a touchdown. Mattison has averaged a pitiful 3.3 yards per touch. Maybe Dalvin Cook wasn’t the only reason Mattison failed to earn a meaningful complementary role in Minnesota’s offense through his first four seasons.
Gamers who drafted Pierce and Mattison have no choice but to hope for better games, either with an improvement in underlying data to continue to hold or adequate enough surface stats to trade for something of value.
Denver’s Toxicity Hearkens Memories of System of a Down
Putting aside the bad joke for the nu-metal fans reading, Denver’s offense is a nightmare for fantasy football. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos ran only 58 offensive plays in Week 1. They ran 62 in Week 2. However, they ran seven plays (11.3%) in a mad dash, culminating in a successful hail mary on their final drive of the game.
The lack of play volume is problematic for their skill-position players unless Russell Wilson recaptures his big-play form from his peak. Moreover, gamers should tread carefully with Marvin Mims after his blow-up game. According to Late-Round Fantasy Football creator JJ Zachariason, Mims ran only five routes in Week 2.
Gamers with medium-to-deep benches can stash Mims. However, they shouldn’t start him until he’s more consistently involved in the offense.
Miscellaneous Note
Are the Eagles a Pass Funnel?
According to Rotoviz’s pace tool, Philadelphia’s opponents have passed at a 72% clip in 65 plays in neutral game scripts. Last year, teams passed 54% of the time in neutral game scripts against the Eagles.
Philadelphia has allowed 326.0 passing yards per game, seven touchdowns and a 106.7 Quarterback Rating through two games. They have a fearsome defensive line and held their first two opponents to only 3.4 yards per rush attempt. So, this is a change that could stick if the Eagles can’t tighten up their pass defense.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.