Which under-the-radar players might be able to give your fantasy team a lift? Which chalky players might not be as safe as they seem? Our featured analysts name some potential sleepers and underachievers along with start/sit advice for Week 1.

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Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit Advice

Q. Which player outside of the top 100 in the FantasyPros flex rankings is a good sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?

Van Jefferson (WR – LAR)

“With Cooper Kupp‘s status in doubt for Week 1, Jefferson steps in as the most accomplished wide receiver in this Rams offense. We saw glimpses of what Jefferson could do last season in this scenario, with four double-digit PPR games after Week 9. Jefferson could be a solid flex play for NFL Week 1.”
– David Mendelson (Triple Play Fantasy)

“Van Jefferson is a WR that deserves your attention this week. Cooper Kupp either won’t play or will be limited, and Jefferson is the Rams’ clear WR2. While the Seahawks were stingy against fantasy WRs last season, the secondary is a bit banged up heading into Week 1. The Rams will likely need to throw to stay in the game and Jefferson should be Matthew Stafford‘s top target.”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR – DEN)

“Marvin Mims Jr. is one of my favorite sleepers for week one. Jerry Juedy may not play in this match-up, and if he does, he won’t be 100 %. Mims will have the number two role as the speedster who can stretch the field. We know that Russell Wilson loves that type of receiver. The Broncos don’t have a clear WR1, allowing Mims to see six-plus targets in a favorable match-up for receivers. Mims has the upside to be a top-24 receiver in week one.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

“This will probably be a popular answer, but for good reason. Marvin Mims Jr. (105 overall in the FantasyPros flex rankings) is set up to start off his career with a bang. No Tim Patrick for this year, no Jerry Jeudy for this week, and a Las Vegas Raiders secondary that should be very beatable once again this year. Look for Sean Payton’s first draft pick as the decision maker for the Denver Broncos to come out swinging in week 1.”
– Andrew Scott (Fantasy In Frames)

“To the second-round rookie, Marvin Mims Jr., a golden opportunity presented itself first with Tim Patrick’s injury and now with Jerry Jeudy’s, so against a defense with many doubts like the Raiders’, he will be Russell Wilson’s WR2. If you need a WR with upside and under the radar, Mims is your guy.”
– Sebastian Ardura (Gurus Deportivos)

“Marvin Mims Jr. would be my top sleeper pick outside of the top 100 this week. He gets a projected matchup against the Raiders’ Nate Hobbs, who gave up over 0.4 fantasy points per route last season. Mims will play the flanker role with Jerry Jeudy expected to be sidelined, and I think he could get into the end zone this weekend.”
– Sam Wagman (The Game Day)

“Broncos WR Marvin Mims Jr. is a strong sleeper this week against the Raiders, who rank as the third-best matchup for opposing fantasy WRs coming into the season according to PFF. The rookie will get a chance to show off his shiftiness and versatility as a starter in two receiver sets opposite Courtland Sutton in Week 1. Mims Jr. has a good shot at 4-5 targets and WR4 numbers on Sunday.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)

“Marvin Mims Jr. If Jerry Jeudy is out this week, which is what we are expecting, the Mims is in line to be the 2nd read on this offense. With Payton wanting to make a statement early, and as someone who will get the best out of Russell Wilson, Mims will have the chance to start the fantasy season with a bang and be, at worst, a flex-worthy starter this week.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)

Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)

“Romeo Doubs is an excellent sleeper start for week one. Currently sitting at 123 in the FantasyPros flex rankings, Doubs could be a major surprise in week one. We have seen flashes from him last year, and throughout the offseason, his chemistry with Jordan Love has been evident. As long as the hamstring injury that held him out of the last preseason game does not spring back up, he should be a lock for five-plus targets in a matchup against the defense that gave up the most yards per attempt last year; he should be a solid sleeper start for any fantasy manager.”
– Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)

Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS)

“I believe Washington wideout Curtis Samuel could be a solid sleeper play this week. The Commanders open the season against a lackluster Arizona defense, and Terry McLaurin is questionable this week with a toe injury. Curtis Samuel is a dual-threat player, as he can be utilized as a runner and a receiver. Last season, Samuel had eight runs that went for 10+ yards. ”
– Mason “Mase” Riney (Fantasy Six Pack)

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)

“A perfectly fine TE to stream this week against a defense that is ranked ninth easiest in TE DST for this upcoming season. I expect LaPorta to be second in targets on this roster this week in a game that should be one of the highest scoring of the week.”
– Kyle Krajewski (First Seed Sports)

Gerald Everett (TE – LAC)

“The Chargers boast an embarrassment of riches at their skill positions, with fantasy league leader Austin Ekeler and a troika of top wide receivers. But don’t sleep on their tight end, especially in week 1. Gerald Everett gets a meaty matchup against a Miami Dolphins team that struggles to defend tight ends. Look for Everett to go off in what will be a high-scoring affair. ”
– Neema Hodjat (Real GM)

Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)

“Tyler Higbee with Cooper Kupp not paying was MONEY last year. Stafford will target Higbee early and often in week 1 and, truthfully, until Kupp returns. Yes, they have Jefferson, but he is a big play guy, not a security blanket. Higbee is even flex-worthy in a PPR format in week 1.”
– Ken Zalis (FantasyPros)

“Tyler Higbee is coming off of a career season and is set up for a fantastic Week 1 against a Seattle defense that has been among the worst at defending the TE position over the past few years. Higbee has seen a 24% target share with Cooper Kupp off the field, and over 40% of the Red-zone targets.”
– Kev Wheeler (The 33rd Team)

“Tyler Higbee. With Cooper Kupp already ruled out for week 1, Higbee is going to be relied upon in the passing game against a Seahawks team that can put up points. Last season, Higbee had an over 20% target share of the team’s total passing targets and has a plus matchup against the Seattle linebackers.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

“Tyler Higbee’s light shines brightest when others are dimmed. Cooper Kupp’s torch was extinguished for week one after being ruled out, leaving the receiving duties to a combination of Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and rookie Puka Nacua. Higbee is averaging 5.2 targets per game over the last four seasons but saw an uptick in the absence of Kupp. Seattle is also a favorable matchup for tight ends, making Higbee an upside swing.”
– John Hesterman (Dynasty League Football)

Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

“Someone has to be the go-to tight end for Dallas. Every year of Dak Prescott‘s career, in which he has played 16 games, a tight end on the Cowboys roster has had at least 90 targets. Every. Last. One. The Cowboys lost Dalton Schultz in free agency, and Jake Ferguson seems to be the man in waiting at the position. With tight end being so thin already and top names like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews, being all questionable this week, Jake Ferguson could be worth a play as the Giants ranked middle of the pack last year in points conceded to the tight end position.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)

“Fantasy players with Travis Kelce on their team should check the waiver wire for Juwan Johnson. The Saints tight end was one of my favorite sleepers this offseason. Last year, he finished third among tight ends in receiving touchdowns (seven) despite catching passes from Andy Dalton. Meanwhile, Johnson faces the Titans in Week 1. They surrendered 12.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game to tight ends last season, the fourth-most in the NFL. Even if you don’t have Kelce on your team, check the waiver wire for Johnson.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

K.J. Osborn (WR – MIN)

“Don’t sleep on K.J. Osborn. He is listed as the WR2 for a Minnesota Viking offense that is going to put up a lot of yards through the air. He is being slept on because of rookie Jordan Addison, but if history shows us anything, most rookie wide receivers take a few weeks or months to acclimate to the game, even Osborn’s superstar teammate Justin Jefferson. Last year, he had 90 targets, and that is sure to increase with the departure of Dalvin Cook to the New York Jets and Adam Thielen to the Carolina Panthers. With the coverage shading Jefferson, K.J. Osborn will have more open looks and opportunities to excel in week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Deon Jackson (RB – IND)

“Deon Jackson ends up being the default RB1 for the Colts. Although I don’t see an extremely efficient performance, we should see a ton of volume. He is RB44 and could end up in the top 24. This guy was heavily targeted in the passing game, designed plays, and not just dump-offs. The Colts will be playing from behind. Put Deon Jackson in your flex.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)

Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)

“Rookie TE Luke Musgrave was a training camp star for the Packers. In the preseason, Musgrave was always on the field whenever staring QB Jordan Love was in the game, and Musgrave ran a route on more than 80% of Love’s dropbacks. Musgrave is going to be a pass-catching TE first and foremost, not a blocker, and the second-round draft pick might see targets aplenty against the Bears on Sunday with Green Bay WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both dealing with hamstring problems.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

“Jayden Reed is the player you want to target outside the top 100. With Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs struggling with injury, Reed could flourish. They targeted Reed in jet sweeps and other manufactured touches throughout camp. The Green Bay Packers will find ways to use him in week one against the Chicago Bears.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)

“Bengals WR Tyler Boyd has some sneaky upside this week. Although Joe Burrow has been declared ready for Week 1, there is speculation that his mobility could be limited, which could lead to some quicker releases behind center. This approach could ultimately benefit Boyd. Even if this idea doesn’t play out, he has a somewhat safe floor for those in desperate need of a WR dart throw, given he had four or more targets in all but two games last season.”
– Justin Sablich (5th Down Fantasy)

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Q. Which player inside the top 40 in the FantasyPros flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?

Jamaal Williams (RB – NO)

“Williams was hardly useful outside his absurd touchdown total last season and goes against the Tennessee Titans, who were one of the best teams against the run last season. The Saints will want to unveil their prized off-season acquisition in Quarterback Derek Carr, and I believe Williams is best left for your bench to start the season.”
– David Mendelson (Triple Play Fantasy)

“I’m a bit worried about RB Jamaal Williams in Week 1, given the matchup with Tennessee. That defense STILL has some issues in the secondary, but its front line is scary good. I can definitely see Williams struggling to get things going against the likes of Jeffery Simmons and Arden Key on Sunday. ”
– Justin Sablich (5th Down Fantasy)

“Jamaal Williams will be a popular start candidate in Week 1 with Alvin Kamara suspended. Unfortunately, the veteran running back has a terrible matchup against the Titans. Last year, Tennessee held running backs to only 16.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. They also gave up only 62.8 rushing yards per game to running backs, the second-lowest average in the league. I would start both Commanders’ running backs over Williams.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

James Conner (RB – ARI)

“In a tough matchup, James Conner could be a major bust in week one. While the opportunity for Conner sounds fantastic, especially with big question marks for a quarterback, this could be a trap game. The Commanders have a unit that was top-five vs. fantasy running backs a year ago and was good against pass-catching backs. Conner would likely need a touchdown to be a top-24 running back in week one. Conner doesn’t have the upside in this tough matchup.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)

“James Connor is a player that I believe could disappoint fantasy managers in week one. Most managers would have drafted Connor knowing he would get volume, which could lead to his fantasy points. However, in week 1, that volume could lead to a very ugly stat line. Going against the Washington Commanders, who boast a solid run defense, and with either Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs starting at quarterback, it could be hard for Arizona to find themselves in scoring position. Connor will get a lot of work, but that easily could lead to less than 100 yards rushing and no touchdowns for Connor, which would be a disappointment to fantasy owners starting him in week one.”
– Dylan Licciardo (FF Gamers)

Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN)

“I’m not super excited to play Alexander Mattison this week. The Buccaneers have had a strong run defense for a few seasons now, and the Vikings should be able to exploit Tampa Bay through the air at will. While there is solid touchdown potential for Mattison, you’re going to need to rely on him crossing the goal line to provide RB2 value. Mattison has averaged 3.72 yards per carry over the last two seasons, and the Buccaneers have allowed less than 4.4 yards per carry to all rushers in that same timeframe. ”
– Jaime Eisner (The Draft Network)

“I’m worried about Alexander Mattison this week (26 overall, RB19 in the FantasyPros flex rankings). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense last year wasn’t the same run defense that we saw dominate the league for several years prior, but I do expect them to be better than last year, and I already had my concerns with Mattison during the draft season as it is. Without knowing how the workload will truly be distributed and a less-than-favorable matchup, I think Mattison has a chance to disappoint fantasy managers this week. ”
– Andrew Scott (Fantasy In Frames)

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

“Najee Harris has a tall task this week as the Steelers host the San Francisco 49ers in their season opener. The 49ers were a top defense, playing primarily well against the run last season, and added to their interior line by signing Javon Hargrave this offseason. Harris didn’t rush for over 70 yards in a game until Week 4 last season, and with Jalen Warren coming off of a great preseason, Harris may find himself sharing more rushing opportunities than previously anticipated.”
– Mason “Mase” Riney (Fantasy Six Pack)

“Najee Harris just feels like a big time sit for me this week. The 49ers defensive line is stout in all phases, but against the run, this unit is lights out. The 49ers were 2nd best in the entire league in 2022 in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry. Harris is a very tough call to sit, given the high draft pick that was used to acquire him, but I just have a very bad feeling that the woes from a year ago carry over into week 1 of 2023. If you can afford it, good on you for drafting a deep team. Najee Harris is a sit for me this week.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)

“Najee Harris is coming off a down season and has a shadow behind him named Jaylen Warren, who will undoubtedly take some touches away from him this year. Furthermore, the Steelers will be a team that attacks much more through the air than in the past, and when you add in the fact that he’s facing the 49ers’ defense in Week 1, I would be very cautious with Harris’ expectations in Week 1.”
– Sebastian Ardura (Gurus Deportivos)

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)

“While I still think Walker has control of this backfield, I still expect to see Zach Charbonnet involved quite a bit this season, and it all starts in Week 1. Charbonnet is a threat to the high-value touches that would keep Walker in my top-40 flex ranks.”
– Kyle Krajewski (First Seed Sports)

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)

“Dameon Pierce has a grim Week 1 fantasy outlook. His Texans are 10-point road underdogs against the Ravens, so Pierce is unlikely to have a run-friendly game script. Houston will be without three injured starters on the offensive line: Tytus Howard, Kenyon Green and Juice Scruggs. And the Ravens are a bad matchup to begin with, having allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards to RBs last season. I’m generally bullish on Pierce, but he’s an easy fade for Week 1.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“I love Dameon Pierce this year, in every week but this one. The Ravens stop the run. It’s what they do. Against rookie QBs, they have been stellar over the last few years. Look for them to take Pierce away and let a rookie QB try and beat them.”
– Ken Zalis (FantasyPros)

“Unfortunately, keep an eye on Dameon Pierce this week and see if you have a better option. Baltimore’s defensive weakness lies in their secondary, where we’ve already seen a few injuries, and their new high-powered offense may force Houston onto the throwing defensive early in this game. We should still see Pierce have a solid amount of volume, but the Ravens allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards per game to the RB position in 2022.”
– Sam Wagman (The Game Day)

“Dameon Pierce. Houston’s defense is a bit underrated, but the Texans should still be playing from behind for a lot of this game against Baltimore. While Pierce is an adequate receiver out of the backfield, he only averaged a little over two receptions a game last season, so how much he’s involved in this game could hinder his fantasy production. ”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)

“It makes me sad to believe that Rhamondre Stevenson will disappoint fantasy managers in week 1. Last year, he finished as a top 10 running back in most scoring systems. He is a great talent, but is now sharing the backfield with Ezekiel Elliot, who will vulture touchdowns and short yardage. He will also face stacked boxes with none of the pass catches, or quarterbacks for that matter, being a threat to opposing defenses. Add that he is facing a great Philadelphia Eagles defense, and Week 1 is going to be Tough sledding for Rhamondre Stevenson. ”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)

Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)

“Miles Sanders has been hobbled with an injured groin for most of the preseason. He’s coming off a career-high in touches and had his least efficient per-touch average by nearly a half-yard. He goes from an elite offensive line to a below-average one and an offense that will be slowing down the pace of plays. His 11 rushing touchdowns were more than he had in his first three seasons combined, and Chuba Hubbard waiting to vulture those high-value touches. Hubbard finished the 2022 season as PFF’s 21st-highest-graded rusher.”
– Kev Wheeler (The 33rd Team)

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

“Deebo Samuel is ranked as WR19. He was WR19 or better only twice in 2022. Deebo was WR31 or worse in 8 of his 13 games last season. Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all demand a lot of touches. This has made it pretty difficult for Deebo to be a reliable fantasy option.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

“Temper expectations for Buccaneers RB Rachaad White. Tampa Bay opens its season against the Vikings, the fifth-toughest matchup for opposing fantasy RBs, according to PFF. White is a volume-based RB without much big-play ability – he ranked 138th out of 163 eligible running backs last year in fantasy points per touch (0.81). With Minnesota favored by 6 points, White may not get the volume he needs to return top-24 WR value this week.”
– Dan Larocca (RotoBaller)

Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)

“Tee Higgins is worrisome in week one, facing the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals changed their approach last season and leaned heavily on their superstar Ja’Marr Chase. In five games against the Cleveland Browns, Tee Higgins has never topped 78 yards.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI)

“Herbert had the chance to take the number 1 spot in Chicago at running back. However, they brought in D’Onta Foreman in Free Agency, who is the most similar type of Running Back to David Montgomery that was available in Free Agency. They then also drafted Roshon Johnson, who will eventually vault up to the top of this depth chart if he carries on like he has this offseason. There is not the confidence or the capital in Herbert to expect him to return RB2 numbers this week. Therefore, don’t take the risk and leave him out, or at best, flex play him.”
– Adam Murfet (5 Yard Rush)

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