We’re mere hours away from the start of a new NFL season, and though a few of you last-minute Charlies still have fantasy football drafts coming up, most of us are done drafting. It’s time to shift from draft mode into managerial mode.
The vast majority of leagues will have a waiver run this week ahead of the Thursday-night opener. Let’s take a look at some of the players who might be worth a buck or two of FAAB money. We’ll include some defenses and kickers since some of you may have forgone those positions in your drafts to throw a couple of extra late-round RB darts.
(Rostership percentage courtesy of Yahoo)
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Fantasy Football Week 1 Waiver Wire Advice
Running Backs
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA): 48% rostered
The Dolphins still haven’t signed a free-agent RB to fortify their backfield, and now Jeff Wilson is on injured reserve with what Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel described as “a midsection injury compounded by some finger issues.” De’Von Achane is dealing with a shoulder injury himself and could conceivably miss Week 1, but the 5-9, 188-pound rookie from Texas A&M has game-breaking 4.32 speed and contact balance that reminds me of Warrick Dunn.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT): 47% rostered
Could Jaylen Warren cut into the workload of Najee Harris? I’m skeptical, quite frankly, but Warren admittedly had much better efficiency numbers than Harris last season. At the very least, Warren is an immensely valuable handcuff, and he could offer standalone value.
Deon Jackson, Evan Hull & Zack Moss (RBs – IND): 30%, 5% & 8% rostered
Star RB Jonathan Taylor is on the PUP list, and it’s possible he’s played his last game with the Colts. Taylor and the team are far apart on matters of compensation, and with the Colts having no serious playoff aspirations, the team has little reason to give Taylor a substantial bump in pay. The Colts could be exceedingly run-heavy in rookie QB Anthony Richardson‘s first year. In 2021, when Colts head coach Shane Steichen was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator in QB Jalen Hurts‘ first season as a starter, the Eagles shifted into uber-run-heavy mode early in the season. From Week 6 on, 56% of their offensive snaps were running plays. We could see something similar with the Colts this year.
I’m somewhat uncertain about how to order the three RBs who’ll fill in for Taylor, but my order of preference at the moment is: Deon Jackson, Evan Hull and Zack Moss. Jackson is expected to start against the Jaguars in Week 1 and could actually be a sneaky start this week in leagues with multiple flex spots. Hull, a rookie from Northwestern, was an accomplished pass catcher in college and could own most of the passing-down snaps early in the season. Moss is expected to miss at least the first week of the regular season while he recovers from a broken arm. He’s a between-the-tackles grinder of modest talent, but he’s capable of handling a significant rushing load.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAX): 47% rostered
The rookie from Auburn looked good in the preseason and may end up stealing goal-line touches from Travis Etienne. At a minimum, Tank Bigsby is a valuable handcuff.
Jeff Wilson (RB – MIA): 27% rostered
As mentioned above, Wilson is on IR with midsection and finger injuries. If the Dolphins don’t sign a free agent such as Kareem Hunt or swing a trade for Taylor, it’s possible Wilson could be the Dolphins’ most valuable RB upon his return.
Sean Tucker (RB – TB): 2% rostered
Here’s an interesting lottery ticket. Sean Tucker went undrafted after a fine college career at Syracuse, possibly because of a heart condition detected during a pre-draft physical. Tucker will reportedly start the season as the Buccaneers’ No. 2 RB behind Rachaad White, who platooned with Leonard Fournette last season and might need a new platoon partner in 2023. Tucker ran for more than 1,000 yards and had double-digit touchdown runs in each of his final two college seasons.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN): 15% rostered
This is the kind of player who’s worth stashing. A third-round rookie from Tulane, Tyjae Spears has no standalone value as long as Derrick Henry is healthy. If anything were to happen to Henry, however, Spears would be a player worth plugging into your lineup every week as a lead back in what figures to be a run-heavy offense.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Mims (WR – DEN): 35% rostered
The Broncos liked Marvin Mims enough to draft him late in the second round this spring, but it wasn’t clear at the time how he’d fit into a WR group that already included Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Well, Patrick tore his ACL in training camp, and Jeudy is dealing with a hamstring injury, so Mims is expected to start in Week 1 against a Raiders defense that ranked 31st in DVOA against the pass last season. The talented rookie from Oklahoma figures to be a fixture in three-receiver sets even after Jeudy returns.
Romeo Doubs & Jayden Reed (WRs – GB): 31% & 8% rostered
QB Jordan Love has made one start in three NFL seasons, so it’s unclear what the Packers’ passing game will look like this year. Preseason results were encouraging, so perhaps it’s worth investing in either of two Green Bay receivers who have flown beneath the radar in a lot of home-league drafts. Romeo Doubs, the Packers’ No. 2 receiver behind Christian Watson, had 42 catches for 425 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games last season as a rookie. Jayden Reed, a second-round selection in this year’s NFL Draft, has already won the Packers’ slot receiver role and has a promising skill set.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR): 2% rostered
A fifth-round rookie from BYU, Puka Nacua was impressive in training camp and is expected to be a Week 1 starter for the Rams, who’ll be without star WR Cooper Kupp in the season opener. Kupp’s aggravation of an earlier hamstring injury is concerning, and the Rams have little incentive to rush him back since they aren’t expected to contend for the playoffs. The 6-2, 210-pound Nacua could be the possession receiver the Rams will desperately need in Kupp’s absence.
Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell & Darius Slayton (WRs – NYG): 7%, 4% & 4% rostered
Pick a Giant, any Giant. Throughout the offseason, fantasy degenerates cracked jokes about the bloated amalgam of receivers the Giants would be bringing to training camp. But now we have more certainty about roles for this position group. Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton are expected to be the starting outside receivers, with Parris Campbell manning the slot. Hodgins played well for the Giants down the stretch last season, and in a Giants WR room full of wee Smurfs, the 6-4, 210-pound Hodgins stands out. Talent has never been an issue for Campbell; it’s just a matter of whether he can stay healthy. Slayton is a dangerous big-play threat, but he’s been streaky throughout his career.
Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS): 11% rostered
It’s hard to tell what the Washington passing game will look like with inexperienced second-year QB Sam Howell at the controls. I wasn’t all that interested in Curtis Samuel until Terry McLaurin sustained a case of turf toe. McLaurin will likely miss Week 1 and could be out for multiple weeks, putting the shifty Samuel in position to contribute early. Samuel, who had 843 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns last season, gets a cushy matchup against the Cardinals in Week 1.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (WB – WAS): 22% rostered
Howell was a fifth-round draft pick, so the odds are that he won’t pan out. But he also threw 38 TD passes for North Carolina, a Power 5 school, as a 19-year-old freshman, which would seemingly bode well for a bright NFL future. Howell can run – he had 828 rushing yards and 11 TD runs in his third and final year with the Tar Heels – and he has a good group of receivers in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. He might not be a great percentage play, but Howell has intriguing upside.
Derek Carr (QB – LV): 41% rostered
Need a starter for Week 1? Derek Carr is your man. He’ll open the season at home against a Titans defense that ranked 28th in DVOA against the pass last season and gave up the fourth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Carr offers a reasonably safe weekly floor, and the juicy matchup against Tennessee raises the ceiling.
Jordan Love (QB – GB): 30% rostered
We don’t have much to go on with Love, a former first-round draft pick who’s had to serve a three-year apprenticeship under Aaron Rodgers. It’s Love’s turn to start now, and his big arm and plus-mobility give him a plausible path to useful fantasy value.
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich (TE -DEN): 43% rostered
Greg Dulcich is coming off a promising rookie year in which he caught 33 passes for 411 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games despite missing most of his first training camp with a hamstring injury. It’s possible Dulcich takes a big step forward in year No. 2 now that the Denver offense is in the good hands of Sean Payton. It’s mildly concerning, however, that Payton brought in former Saints TE Adam Trautman and gave him significant playing time with the starters in the preseason.
Gerald Everett (TE – SEA): 42% rostered
In six NFL seasons, Gerald Everett has never finished as a top-12 fantasy scorer at the TE position. He just missed last year, ranking TE13 in PPR scoring after finishing with career highs in catches (58) and receiving yards (555) to go along with four touchdowns. Everett is a locked-in starter in one of the league’s better offenses, and he’ll be paired with outstanding young QB Justin Herbert.
Luke Musgrave (TE – GB): 15% rostered
A second-round pick from Oregon State, Luke Musgrave, was reportedly a revelation for the Packers in training camp, constantly getting open and making catches. The team was even using the 6-6, 253-pound rookie on jet sweeps. Musgrave played with the Green Bay starters throughout the preseason and ran a route on over 80% of his preseason snaps. It’s possible that Musgrave turns out to be a more impactful rookie tight end than either Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta, who were both drafted ahead of him.
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL): 32% rostered
An intriguing stealth option at tight end, Jake Ferguson is expected to start for the Cowboys now that Dalton Schultz has defected to Houston. The Cowboys took TE Luke Schoonmaker in the second round of this year’s draft, but Ferguson has a better college pass-catching resumé than Schoonmaker. Ferguson caught 19 of his 22 targets as a rookie, and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott completed every pass he threw to Ferguson last season, according to Cowboys beat writer Michael Gehlken.
Defenses
Seattle Seahawks: 14% rostered
The improving Seattle defense gets a Week 1 home game against increasingly interception-prone QB Matthew Stafford and a Rams offense that will be missing Kupp. Yummy.
Green Bay Packers: 35% rostered
A Green Bay defense loaded with former first-round draft picks starts the season against their archrivals, the Bears, in Chicago. Bears QB Justin Fields absorbed a league-high 55 sacks in 15 games last season, and the Packers accounted for three of the 11 interceptions that Fields threw in 2022.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 26% rostered
The Jaguars aren’t expected to have one of the league’s better defenses, but they get a primo Week 1 matchup against the Colts and Richardson. The only concern is that the Colts will be extremely run-heavy with Richardson at the controls. It’s generally a bad idea to start a defense against a run-heavy team since it means fewer opportunities for sacks and interceptions.
New York Giants: 4% rostered
This is strictly an early-bird play for anyone who wants to acquire a defense they can use in Week 2. You won’t want to use the Giants against the Cowboys in Week 1, but the Giants get a fantastic Week 2 matchup against the sad-sack Cardinals.
Kickers
Riley Patterson (K – DET): 42% rostered
The Thursday-night opener between the Lions and Chiefs should be a high-scoring affair. The Vegas total for that game is 54.5 points – 3.5 points higher than the next-highest total on the board. The Chiefs have won eight straight season openers, and yet their opponents have scored at least 20 points in all eight of those games. The average point total in the Chiefs’ last eight season openers: 60.3
Brandon McManus (K – JAX): 39% rostered
The Jaguars have an exciting young offense and a juicy Week 1 matchup against the Colts. Brandon McManus, who spent his first nine NFL seasons with the Broncos, should get his fair share of scoring opportunities in his Jags debut.
Blake Grupe (K – NO): 2% rostered
The Saints have the easiest schedule in the league this season, and if their new kicker pans out, you might not have to replace him. The Saints’ cakewalk schedule includes only three teams that made the playoffs last season: the Jaguars, Vikings and Giants. There’s nothing wrong with becoming a Grupe groupie.
Will Lutz (K – DEN): 8% rostered
The former Saints kicker is now with the Broncos, who get a favorable Week 1 home matchup against the Raiders. Las Vegas gave up 8.7 fantasy points per game to opposing kickers over the first 17 weeks of the 2022 regular season.
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