We want this to be a comprehensive waiver article, and we try to cover every possible angle. That includes trying to explain why a particular player might be a useful addition to your roster.
What we can’t do here is discern exactly what sort of player your particular team needs. Well, sometimes we can. Every team needs a Puka Nacua, and we told you that a week ago.
But sometimes you’re looking for a ceiling play, and sometimes you’re looking for a floor play. Which players you choose to pursue on waivers will depend on the sort of ceiling/floor profile you’re seeking.
We all want vast upside, of course. But sometimes the players with potentially glorious ceilings — the guys with Sistine Chapel ceilings – have pretty rickety floors.
Take Tyjae Spears, for instance. The rookie from Tulane had an exciting college career, drew positive buzz in training camp and looked good in the preseason. Derrick Henry is Tennessee’s established workhorse, but Spears vaulted past every other Titans running back in training camp to become the undisputed No. 2. If Henry were injured, Spears would have a chance to hit lofty heights. He would most likely be used in much the same way Henry is used. Spears might not be as effective as Henry, but the role itself almost guarantees substantial fantasy value.
The only trouble is that Spears probably isn’t going to produce usable fantasy numbers most weeks as long as Henry is healthy. If one of your starting running backs pulls a hamstring in practice this week and Spears is among the players you have on your bench, chances are he won’t be the player you insert in place of your injured starter next week.
Sometimes you need a floor play more than a ceiling play. Remember James White? Of course you do. He was a Super Bowl hero, after all. In the Patriots’ unforgettable come-from-behind win over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, White had six carries for 29 yards and two touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 110 yards and another touchdown. There’s a strong case to be made that it was White, not Tom Brady, who should have been named MVP of that Super Bowl. But I digress.
White was the perfect example of a floor play in fantasy football. Mostly a passing-down back, White never had more than 425 rushing yards in a single season. But in the prime of his career, he had a four-year run in which his season reception totals ranged from 56 to 87. He didn’t give you a lot of huge fantasy performances, but he chipped in at least 7 or 8 PPR points most weeks. Sometimes you simply need to patch a hole in your lineup, and in that regard, James White was a perfect spackle back. The Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard might be that type of a quick-fix waiver option for 2023.
So, consider your needs while using this article as your waiver wire shopping catalog. The analysis for a particular player might sound compelling, but does his floor/ceiling profile suit your team needs? Think about that before spending your precious FAAB dollars.
A quick note: Our cutoff for inclusion in this article is 50% rostership in Yahoo leagues. Players rostered in more than half of Yahoo leagues will not appear in this article. It’s an appropriate cutoff, because we wind up with a pretty accurate picture of what’s available in most 10- and 12-team leagues. But sometimes it’s worth making note of a player who’s rostered in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues but might be available in your league.
One such player is Kyren Williams, who is now clearly the lead back for the Rams. Williams is rostered in 62% of Yahoo leagues at the moment, but I know there are some leagues where he’s available. If so, he’s worth a zesty FAAB bid.
Editor’s note: Browns RB Nick Chubb sustained what appeared to be a season-ending knee injury in the Monday-night game between Cleveland and Pittsburgh. We have updated the waiver article to account for the potential consequences of that injury.
Grade: B
Rostership percentages are based on Yahoo leagues. Recommended FAAB bids are based on a $100 budget.
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
QUARTERBACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Sam Howell (WAS): 20% rostered
- Next Opponents: BUF, @PHI, CHI
- True value: $8
- Desperate Need: $14
- Budget-minded: $4
Analysis: More respect better start flying around Sam Howell‘s name after yet another stellar fantasy performance, this time on the road in Denver. He makes good throws. He has good mobility and weapons. His relationship with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is blossoming into something special. Don’t be late to the party; grab this year’s Geno Smith while you still can.
Matthew Stafford (LAR): 35% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CIN, @IND, PHI
- True value: $6
- Desperate Need: $11
- Budget-minded: $3
Analysis: Rumors of Matthew Stafford‘s demise may have been premature. His arm is back to Howitzer strength, and despite missing Cooper Kupp, Stafford has developed a strong bond with his younger receivers. Puka Nacua is proving to be a very reliable chain mover, and Tutu Atwell has been good on deep and intermediate routes. Look for Stafford to continue his pass-happy ways up to and beyond Kupp’s return.
Derek Carr (NO): 40% rostered
- Next Opponents: @GB, TB, @NE
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Saints have the easiest schedule in the league, so you will rarely run into a matchup that will make you feel as if you can’t possibly start Carr that week. The veteran quarterback is also blessed with an abundance of pass-catching talent, including Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and, soon, Alvin Kamara.
C.J. Stroud (HOU): 9% rostered
- Next Opponents: @JAX, PIT, @ATL
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $11
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: An early surprise to some has been Houston’s inability to get Dameon Pierce going on the ground so far. Less shocking is C.J. Stroud‘s rapid development as a high-level passer. His 384 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns versus Indy in Week 2 doesn’t just pay the bills. With a trio of gettable defenses coming up, there’s a very strong argument for riding with Stroud as he climbs the rankings.
Stash Candidates: None.
- Fantasy managers are better served stashing skill players in single-QB leagues and only picking up QBs based on starting necessity.
RUNNING BACKS
Written by Bo McBrayer
Jerome Ford (CLE): 15% rostered
- Next Opponents: TEN, BAL, BYE
- True value: $30
- Desperate Need: $55
- Budget-minded: $22
Analysis: The grotesque knee injury sustained by Nick Chubb on Monday night throws the Cleveland backfield into turmoil. Ford was No. 2 behind Chubb on the depth chart and figures to be part of the solution to Cleveland’s backfield problem. A fifth-round draft pick in 2022, Ford had only 23 NFL carries and no receptions before the week began. Now he’s positioned to be the Browns’ lead running back in Week 3 and perhaps for the remainder of the season. Ford was terrific in an emergency relief role on Monday night, with 16-106-0 rushing and 3-25-1 receiving vs. the Steelers. The 5-10, 210-pound Ford has good speed and athleticism. In his final college season at Cincinnati, he ran for 1,319 yards and 19 touchdowns, adding 21 catches for 220 yards and one touchdown. Ford runs into rough matchups the next two weeks — first against the rugged Titans run defense, then against the Ravens — before the Browns hit their bye. A robust bid for Ford is certainly warranted, particularly if you’re a Chubb investor trying to pick up the pieces. Just realize that the Browns may very well add another running back, whether it’s re-signing ex-Brown and current free agent Kareem Hunt, or trading for Cam Akers or some other RB.
Roschon Johnson (CHI): 38% rostered
- Next Opponents: @KC, DEN, @WAS
- True value: $17
- Desperate Need: $29
- Budget-minded: $11
Analysis: The inevitable occurred ahead of schedule when D’Onta Foreman was inactive in Week 2, paving the way for stud rookie Roschon Johnson to shoulder a larger workload. Johnson is very well-rounded, and his role as a mop-up checkdown receiver will come in handy with how atrocious the Chicago defense has been.
Chuba Hubbard (CAR): 19% rostered
- Next Opponents: @SEA, MIN, @DET
- True value: $12
- Desperate Need: $22
- Budget-minded: $6
Analysis: Though not exactly the most riveting player to this point in his career, Chuba Hubbard is the clear second man in the Carolina backfield behind Miles Sanders. The Panthers also have one of the most favorable early-season schedules in the NFL. This translates to adding Hubbard for your own depth and plugging him in as a flex starter if the need arises.
Justice Hill (BAL): 44% rostered
- Next Opponents: IND, @CLE, @PIT
- True value: $10
- Desperate Need: $18
- Budget-minded: $5
Analysis: Gus Edwards was a great waiver pickup from last week, but Justice Hill was also much more useful for fantasy than expected and is still under 50% rostership. His 14 touches in Week 2 included three receptions – a refreshing new look for Baltimore’s offense. While the Gus Bus is more likely to see goal-line work, it’s Hill’s speed and receiving ability that make him a worthy addition in fantasy.
De’Von Achane (MIA): 45% rostered
- Next Opponents: DEN, @BUF, NYG
- True value: $10
- Desperate Need: $18
- Budget-minded: $4
Analysis: Achane is slowly creeping toward being ineligible for this column after spending the offseason and Week 1 as a stash play. He was activated in Week 2 in New England after missing the first game with a shoulder injury. Expect Mike McDaniel to slowly ease Achane into the fray before folding his illustrious speed into Miami’s relay team of an offense.
Tyjae Spears (TEN): 17% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CLE, CIN, @IND
- True value: $8
- Desperate Need: $13
- Budget-minded: $3
Analysis: The Titans haven’t done very well with bolstering their RB room around Derrick Henry, but Tyjae Spears is already earning a solid role through his first two professional games. The former Tulane back is very explosive in the open field and more than adequate as a receiver. This is less of a handcuff than it is a bet that the rookie will continue to carve out games with double-digit touches.
Kareem Hunt (FA): 12% rostered
- Next Opponents: N/A
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $10
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: It seems reasonable to think that the Browns will consider re-signing Kareem Hunt after the catastrophic knee injury sustained by Nick Chubb on Monday night. Hunt spent four seasons with the Browns, his tenure in Cleveland highlighted by a 2020 season in which he rolled up 1,145 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns. If the Browns were to sign Hunt, he might not be ready for game action until after the team’s Week 5 bye, and in all likelihood he’d probably be part of a two- or three-man backfield.
Pierre Strong (CLE): 1% rostered
- Next Opponents: TEN, BAL, BYE
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: The Browns’ No. 3 running back moves up to No. 2 with the knee injury to Nick Chubb. Cleveland traded for Strong late last month to bolster their RB depth, giving the Patriots offensive tackle Tyrone Wheatley Jr. in return. A fourth-round draft pick out of South Dakota State in 2022, Strong was a big-play machine in college, albeit against lesser competition. He had 10 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown in New England last season. Strong is an intriguing speculative add since the back in front of him on the Cleveland depth chart, Jerom Ford, is just as inexperienced as Strong is and was drafted one round later.
Matt Breida (NYG): 1% rostered
- Next Opponents: @SF, SEA, @MIA
- True value: $4
- Desperate Need: $7
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Saquon Barkley‘s lower-leg injury at the end of the Giants’ Week 2 win over the Cardinals is problematic for fantasy. Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell have barely seen the field to this point, neither making an impression. Explosive rookie Eric Gray has only seen the field as a kick returner. Beware the waiver spend for the sake of chasing a miracle, especially if Saquon only figures to miss Thursday’s game against the nasty 49ers defense.
Craig Reynolds (DET): 0% rostered
- Next Opponents: ATL, @GB, CAR
- True value: $4
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: David Montgomery looks like he’ll be sidelined for at least one game, but it may be longer. This leads to Reynolds’ inclusion for waiver wire pickups this week. Reynolds likely doesn’t take on the same backfield share that Montgomery had, but he should work in tandem with Jahmyr Gibbs, serving as the early-down complement. Don’t let Reynolds’ former UDFA status or run-of-the-mill testing metrics fool you. He is a talented rusher. Across his 82 career carries, Reynolds has amassed 3.72 yards after contact per attempt, a 34.4% breakaway rate, and a 115.3 elusive rating (per PFF). Among rushers with at least 80 carries last year, these numbers would have ranked fourth, 12th and first across those categories (per PFF). If he can factor into the red zone, Reynolds is an RB3 with intriguing RB2 upside in the coming weeks.
Tony Jones (NO): 1% rostered
- Next Opponents: @GB, TB, @NE
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $3
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: With Jamaal Williams sustaining a hamstring injury in Week 2, rookie Kendre Miller working his way back from a hamstring injury of his own, and Alvin Kamara suspended for one more game, Jones is likely to be the Saints’ starting RB by default this week when they travel to Green Bay to face the Packers. That role may or may not equate to Week 3 fantasy value for Jones, since the Saints are likely to let QB/TE hybrid Taysom Hill handle a significant chunk of their rushing load. But if you’re truly desperate for a one-week-only Band-Aid, Jones is an inexpensive option.
Stash Candidates:
Ty Chandler is just simply more dynamic than starter Alexander Mattison, who has had a dreadful start to the season. Chandler is better equipped to be efficient with Minnesota’s increased usage of inside zone and gap run concepts instead of the outside zone that the previous regime drafted Mattison to fit. The younger Chandler is very likely to take Mattison’s starting job this season.
Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn each saw rotational work to spell Tony Pollard in the Cowboys’ first two games. Dowdle is better equipped to be pressed into action should the starter miss any work.
Isaiah Spiller and Elijah Dotson are both worthy of stashing in very deep leagues as insurance for Joshua Kelley, especially if Austin Ekeler misses further time.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Written by Derek Brown
Tutu Atwell (LAR): 25% rostered
- Next Opponents: @CIN, @IND, PHI
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: After two games, Atwell has been a key cog in the Rams’ passing attack. He’s drawn an 18.2% target share as the clear running mate with Puka Nacua. Atwell has surpassed 70 receiving yards in each game with a strong 2.08 yards per route run. When (if) Cooper Kupp comes back, Atwell could get bumped from the starting lineup, but it’s also possible he sends Van Jefferson to the pine. Until Kupp comes back, Atwell is a weekly WR3/4 with WR2 upside. He’s been impressive with strong route running and a knack for finding the soft spots in zone coverage.
Tank Dell (HOU): 5% rostered
- Next Opponents: @JAX, PIT, @ATL
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: A Thor Nystrom favorite makes the list this week. C.J. Stroud pounded the table for Dell once Stroud was picked by the Texans. Stroud made their connection well-known this week. In his first game in the starting lineup, Dell led the team with a 21.2% target share, as he amassed 72 receiving yards and a score. Despite his 5-8, 165-pound frame, Dell has been playing boundary wide receiver since the preseason. Don’t let his size fool you, though, as Dell has the footwork and speed releases to win from the outside. With Noah Brown on IR, Robert Woods moved inside, as Dell was Nico Collins‘ tag-team partner on the boundary. Dell had a 95% route participation mark with 1.6 YPRR. Collins has looked amazing so far, but don’t dismiss Dell from giving Collins a run for his money weekly for the team lead in every category. Dell could evolve into a weekly WR3 and the future WR1 for Houston.
Rashid Shaheed (NO): 51% rostered
- Next Opponents: @GB, TB, @NE
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $2
Analysis: Shaheed came on strong down the stretch last season, flashing impressive route-running chops and blinding speed. These skills helped him finish third in yards per route run last season and 24th in receiving grade (per PFF). Shaheed enters Week 2 on the heels of a banner performance in the season’s opening week. Shaheed finished Week 1 with an 18.1% target share and 3.56 yards per route run (89 receiving yards) while chipping in two rushing attempts (11 rushing yards). Shaheed falls into the WR4 bucket with weekly WR2/3 upside.
Jayden Reed (GB): 10% rostered
- Next Opponents: NO, DET, @LV
- True value: $4
- Desperate Need: $6
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Reed’s underlying metrics this week were sexy on a per-route basis, but his overall usage is concerning. He only played 54% of snaps while logging 72% route participation. Green Bay remains reluctant to hand him an every-down role. Romeo Doubs led the wide receiver room with a 76% snap share this week, so this could just be their current philosophy with these young pass catchers. The Packers could prefer a rotation in the early going. Reed was immensely productive when on the field, with a 32% target share, 44% TPRR and 2.05 yards per route run. Yes, I have to mention his two touchdowns, but touchdowns are fluky, so we can’t get married to that as the primary reason for picking up or avoiding a player. Reed has flashed the talent in back-to-back games to become the WR2 opposite Christian Watson when he returns, but he still has to hop Doubs to get there.
Skyy Moore (KC): 49% rostered
- Next Opponents: CHI, @NYJ, @MIN
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Moore is borderline fool’s gold. While he led the team with 70 receiving yards (one touchdown) and finished with 2.1 YPRR, the rest of Moore’s metrics are gruesome. I don’t like to do this, but it has to be mentioned that 54 of his receiving yards came on one play. Moore only played 63% of the snaps this week and drew a 9.7% target share. I would love to wax poetic here and praise Moore, but the deeper usage trends look exactly the same for a player who flopped in Week 1. The Chiefs badly want Moore to be a thing as they continue giving him opportunities, but I doubt at this juncture if he has the talent to earn more work as the season progresses. If he’s out there on the wire, he’s worth a pickup, but don’t start him at this point.
Josh Reynolds (DET): 12% rostered
- Next Opponents: ATL, @GB, CAR
- True value: $3
- Desperate Need: $5
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Reynolds has run hot through two games. In Week 1, he led the team with 80 receiving yards; this week, he had 66 receiving yards and a pair of scores. Reynolds remains a matchup-based WR4/5. I won’t ignore his 2.47 yards per route run after two weeks, but his 14.2% target share better indicates his role and talent level. If you’re stuck in an injury pinch or with bye weeks upcoming, Reynolds is not the worst WR3 or flex play you can roll out there. I wouldn’t value him higher than that tier, though.
Stash Candidates:
The Steelers are banged up. Diontae Johnson is sidelined, and now George Pickens is on the injury report. At this point in his career, Allen Robinson‘s ability to carry a passing attack is in question. I’m not saying Austin could do it, but in Week 1, he posted a 69.3 receiving grade while playing 86% of his snaps on the perimeter (per PFF). Austin is worth stashing if you have the bench room, because he easily could be the team’s de facto WR1 in the coming weeks if Pittsburgh’s pass catchers continue to drop like flies.
Jalin Hyatt has speed that you can’t teach. While his 89 receiving yards in Week 2 were sexy, don’t get lost in the speed sauce. Hyatt only drew two targets. He just managed to make the most of those looks. His 32.4% route participation is also worrisome, but the Giants desperately need a pass catcher to step up and make plays opposite Darren Waller. If everything breaks right for him, Hyatt could eventually be that guy, so stash him now if you can.
Speaking of speed, Marvin Mims had a very Hyatt-like stat line in Week 2. He secured each of his two targets for 113 receiving yards. He made his receptions count with 53 and 60 yards from each. Like Hyatt, Mims isn’t anywhere close to being a full-time starter. In Week 2, he played 24% of the snaps with an 18.7% route participation mark. These numbers are dreadful, but if Mims keeps flashing, he can continue to earn more work in this offense. Stash rookies now before it’s too late, because they can be stretch-run difference-makers.
TIGHT ENDS
Written by Derek Brown
Luke Musgrave (GB): 25% rostered
- Next Opponents: NO, DET, @LVR
- True value: $6
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $4
Analysis: Musgrave maintained TE1-type usage in Week 2 with 88% of the snaps played and a 96% route participation. His efficiency metrics are also strong through two weeks with a 14% target share and 1.56 YPRR. The problem for Musgrave and the other pass catchers in this offense is passing volume. Jordan Love now has back-to-back games with only 25 passing attempts. Unless he can start regularly spiking touchdowns to pad his limited volume stats, Musgrave won’t be able to reach the TE1 status that his usage implies he can possibly achieve. He’s worth a pickup depending on the state of the tight end position of your roster, but I adamantly state that you DO NOT START HIM THIS WEEK! New Orleans is hell on earth for tight ends. They do not allow production to tight ends.
Taysom Hill (NO): 9% rostered
- Next Opponents: @GB, TB, @NE
- True value: $5
- Desperate Need: $8
- Budget-minded: $3
Analysis: Normally a boom-or-bust TE option, Hill could be a top-10 TE option in Week 3 because of the Saints’ manpower shortage at running back. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller are dealing with hamstring injuries and may not be available. Alvin Kamara has one game left on a three-game suspension. Tony Jones and Adam Prenctice could be the only RBs left in the New Orleans backfield for Week 3, and neither Jones nor Prentice is in Hill’s league as a runner. We could see Hill get 10-15 carries this week in Green Bay, and it’s possible he could throw an option pass or two as well.
Juwan Johnson (NO): 37% rostered
- Next Opponents: @GB, TB, @NE
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Johnson enters Week 2 with a 73% route per team dropback rate in Week 1 and a 15.2% target share. This type of usage can easily lead to some TE1 weeks moving forward for the former wide receiver. With Derek Carr under center, the Saints look like they are turning over a new leaf offensively. In Week 1 they were sixth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate. Johnson is a stream-worthy tight end moving forward.
Hayden Hurst (CAR): 35% rostered
- Next Opponents: @SEA, MIN, @DET
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: Hurst’s fantasy finish in Week 1 has some intriguing pluses, while there are also some worries in the deeper recesses of his usage. Hurst only played 53% of the snaps, but his route participation was decent (71%). We’re cooking with gas if he can inch closer to 80%. I don’t care if his snaps are limited, because he’s running routes when he’s out there. Leave the run blocking to Ian Thomas and Giovanni Ricci. Hurst did see an 18.4% target share while producing 1.5 yards per route run as the best of a bunch of terrible receiving threats. Hurst could volume his way to becoming a weekly TE1.
Adam Trautman (DEN): 4% rostered
- Next Opponents: @MIA, @CHI, NYJ
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Trautman’s numbers don’t jump off the page through two games, but the matchup is fantastic this week. This is why Trautman makes the list. While Trautman has only managed a 9.0% target share and 0.65 YPRR through two games, he’s also had a 78% route participation. In Week 2, with no Greg Dulcich, the route participation number climbed to 90%. Miami struggled against tight ends last year, and it’s much of the same in 2023. After two weeks, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game, the fifth-most receiving yards, and the second-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Expect Payton to draw up some extra looks for Trautman in Week 3.
Stash Candidates: None.
DEFENSES
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Kansas City Chiefs: 39% rostered
- Next Opponents: CHI, @NYJ, @MIN
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $4
- Budget-minded: $1
The Chiefs get a scrumptious Week 3 matchup against the Bears at home. Chicago has been a mess offensively, with QB Justin Fields throwing three interceptions (including an ill-advised screen pass that the Buccaneers returned for a TD in Week 2) and taking 10 sacks. Fields was the NFL’s most frequently sacked QB last season and has once again been a sack magnet. When the Chiefs’ offense is clicking, they can force opponents to throw to catch up, and more throwing means more chances for sacks and interceptions. The Chiefs also get a juice Week 4 matchup against Zach Wilson and the Jets, so don’t be shy about spending an extra buck.
Cincinnati Bengals: 45% rostered
- Next Opponents: LAR, @TEN, @ARI
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $3
- Budget-minded: $0
The 0-2 Bengals haven’t been especially sharp on either side of the ball, but their defense has outperformed their offense this far. Cincinnati’s defense should be no worse than average this season, and the Bengals are looking at a friendly three-week stretch in which they’ll face the Rams, Titans and Cardinals. This week’s matchup against the Rams doesn’t look as appealing as it did before the season began, but Rams QB Matthew Stafford can be interception-prone, as we saw on Sunday when he was picked off twice by the 49ers.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 15% rostered
- Next Opponents: HOU, ATL, @BUF
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
This is simply a one-week bet on a defense going up against a rookie quarterback playing with an injury-riddled offensive line. But the Jags’ defense isn’t especially good, and the rookie quarterback they’ll be facing this week, Houston’s C.J. Stroud, has acquitted himself rather well through the first two weeks of the season. Don’t spend more than a buck on the Jacksonville defense unless bidding for defenses is especially fierce in your league.
Seattle Seahawks: 8% rostered
- Next Opponents: CAR, @NYG, BYE
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
The Seattle defense has yielded 30 and 31 points in its first two games, but the Seahawks get a friendly home matchup against rookie QB Bryce Young and the Panthers this week, followed by a playable Week 4 matchup against a Giants offense that has looked disjointed early this season and could be without RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) for a few weeks.
Green Bay Packers: 35% rostered
- Next Opponents: NO, DET, @LV
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
The Packers’ high-quality pass defense has recorded five sacks and two interceptions so far. Green Bay is a decent streaming option this week at home against the Saints, who may have to lean on the passing game with RB Alvin Kamara still serving a three-game suspension.
Stash Candidates: None.
KICKERS
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Jake Moody (SF): 46% rostered
- Next Opponents: NYG, ARI, DAL
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
The 49ers’ offense is a war machine, and Moody has benefitted so far, kicking six field goals and six extra points in San Francisco’s first two games. The 49ers are at home for their next three games and have soft matchups in their next two, starting with a Thursday night game against the Giants this week.
Brandon Aubrey (DAL): 6% rostered
- Next Opponents: @ARI, NE, @SF
- True value: $2
- Desperate Need: $3
- Budget-minded: $1
The Cowboys have crushed their first two opponents by a combined score of 70-10, and Aubrey has gone 7-of-7 on field goals and 5-of-6 on extra points. The rookie kicker is bound to have plenty of scoring this week when the Cowboys visit Arizona for what figures to be a squash match against the Cardinals.
Greg Joseph (MIN): 14% rostered
- Next Opponents: LAC, @CAR, KC
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Joseph has only kicked one field goal so far, but he’s booted six PATs. The Vikings could find themselves in a lot of shootouts this year, since they have a high-powered passing game but shaky defense. There should be a lot of scoring this week when the Vikings host the Chargers, and then Joseph gets a seemingly favorable Week 4 matchup against the Panthers.
Brandon McManus (JAX): 36% rostered
- Next Opponents: HOU, ATL, @BUF
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Although the Jaguars’ offense failed to score any touchdowns vs. the Chiefs on Sunday, Jacksonville should have no trouble putting points on the board this season. A 10th-year veteran, McManus has an 81.5% career success rate on field goals and is a perfect 4-of-4 so far this season. The Jaguars are at home the next two weeks and have an inviting matchup against the division-rival Texans this week.
Riley Patterson (DET): 49% rostered
- Next Opponents: ATL, @GB, CAR
- True value: $1
- Desperate Need: $2
- Budget-minded: $0
Good kicker, good offense. Patterson has kicked only one field goal so far this season, but he’s 44-of-50 on FGs for his career. He has playable matchups the next four weeks and doesn’t face a daunting matchup until he and the Lions visit Baltimore in Week 7.
Stash Candidates: None.
FOOL’S GOLD
Even with Odell Beckham hurt already and Rashod Bateman marginalized in the Baltimore offense, Nelson Agholor isn’t worth pursuing. He Had 5-63-1 on six targets Sunday, but he played only 24 snaps and ran just eight routes. It’s hard to see Agholor carving out a fantasy-relevant role as the Ravens’ No. 4 receiver.
Baker Mayfield has played well in his first two starts for the Buccaneers, throwing for 490 yards and three touchdowns, with no interceptions and only one sack. But Mayfield has faced the Vikings and Bears, who have two of the league’s weaker defenses. He’ll face a much tougher challenge this week against the Eagles. Mayfield is streamable in softer matchups, but he is not a permanent solution to anyone’s QB problem.
A four-drop debacle in the Thursday-night season opener made Kadarius Toney the butt of jokes for a week, but he caught all five of his targets for 35 yards in Week 2. Toney is a twitchy, explosive athlete playing in a high-octane offense, but he’s played only 35 of the Chiefs’ 132 offensive snaps so far this season. Toney is targeted at an extraordinarily high rate when he’s on the field, but it’s not the sort of usage that would make you comfortable putting him in your starting lineup.
DROP RECOMMENDATIONS
Droppable
Cam Akers played behind Kyren Williams in Week 1, and in Week 2 Akers was a healthy scratch. Despite leading the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 regular season, Akers is clearly not the apple of Rams head coach Sean McVay’s eye. It’s time to bail.
D’Onta Foreman was inactive in Week 2, so he has no value unless either Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson goes down. Foreman doesn’t catch passes, so he needs rushing volume in order to provide fantasy value. He’s simply not going to get it in Chicago.
Michael Gallup drew two targets on Sunday and had a single reception for 3 yards. Considering that Brandin Cooks was out with a knee injury and that Dak Prescott completed 33-of-38 passes against the Jets, Gallup’s lack of involvement is pretty damning. It’s safe to dump him.
Deon Jackson started at running back for the Colts in Week 1 and played 71% of the team’s offensive snaps. In Week 2, Zack Moss returned from a broken arm, and Jackson played zero offensive snaps. Moss played 56-of-57 offensive snaps in Week 2, so he’s clearly the main man in Indy — at least until Jonathan Taylor comes back. Jackson has no fantasy value.
No Aaron Rodgers means no fantasy viability for Allen Lazard, period.
Darnell Mooney had 4-53-1 on seven targets in Week 1, but he didn’t draw a single target in Week 2. D.J. Moore is clearly the lead receiver in Chicago, and the Bears’ popgun passing attack can’t support more than one fantasy-viable receiver. Feel free to swap out Mooney for a more valuable asset.
Through the first two weeks of the season, Alec Pierce has drawn five targets and has 3-33-0. The Colts are going to be a run-first team, and Michael Pittman is the alpha receiver. Pierce’s skill set may eventually pair well with QB Anthony Richardson‘s cannon arm, but it seems unlikely Pierce will do much in 2023.
If the Bengals’ offense were humming, Irv Smith might have some fantasy value. The Bengals’ offense is certainly not humming these days.
Droppable with a chance of regret
Rashod Bateman has been working as the No. 3 receiver in Baltimore behind rookie Zay Flowers and veteran Odell Beckham. Bateman is also well behind TE Mark Andrews in the target pecking order, and now WR Nelson Agholor is starting to get involved. A first-round draft pick in 2021, Bateman just hasn’t been able to get any traction in Baltimore, due in large part to injuries. It’s possible he’ll still pan out, but if you need to drop someone, it won’t be all that painful to part ways with Bateman.
Once a fixture in the first round of fantasy drafts, Dalvin Cook is now a mere committee back. He’s splitting time with the younger and more talented Breece Hall, and Michael Carter joined the Jets’ backfield mix in Week 3. A committee back can have fantasy value in the right environment, but it will be hard for Cook to provide fantasy value with a part-time an offense being triggered by QB Zach Wilson.
Young TE Chig Okonkwo flashed intriguing potential last season as a rookie, but he hasn’t been drawing many targets in a run-heavy Titans offense that added WR DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason.
Rashaad Penny is clearly the odd man out in the Eagles’ backfield. Kenneth Gainwell operated as Philly’s lead back in Week 1. With Gainwell missing Week 2 due to an injury, D’Andre Swift served as the lead back and had a big night against Minnesota, rushing for 175 yards and a touchdown. Boston Scott was the No. 2 back, and Penny didn’t get any work until Scott sustained a concussion. Gainwell and Scott won’t be out for long, so Penny has no fantasy utility for now. If a wave of injuries hit the Philly backfield, however, Penny could suddenly become Johnny on the spot.
With Javonte Williams well ahead of schedule in his recovery from a major knee injury and already operating as Denver’s lead back, Perine doesn’t offer much to fantasy managers. The Broncos also seem interested in giving undrafted free agent Jaleel McLaughlin some playing time at running back, further kneecapping Perine’s value.
Don’t drop yet
Tank Bigsby played only 12 snaps in the Jaguars’ Week 2 loss to the Chiefs and didn’t have a single carry. As much as he was playing in the preseason, it seemed as if Bigsby might have standalone fantasy value even with Travis Etienne the clear No. 1 in Jacksonville. It turns out that isn’t the case. Still, Bigsby is a potentially valuable handcuff back who’d become a must-start if Etienne were to go down.
Chargers first-rounder Quinton Johnston Is currently operating as the team’s No. 4 receiver behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. But based on the worrisome injury histories of Allen and Williams, Johnson is worth keeping around if you can spare a roster spot.
With Christian McCaffrey dominating snaps and touches in the 49ers’ backfield, there’s little for Elijah Mitchell to do. McCaffrey has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, so ditching Mitchell would be premature. He’s a lottery ticket with the potential to bring you a jackpot.
The Kyle Pitts haters are already getting restless, with Pitts producing 4-59-0 on eight targets over his first two games. Don’t give up on a player of Pitts’ immense talents.
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