Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways: Tyler Allgeier, Chris Olave, Luke Musgrave (Week 2)

Hello and welcome to the Week 2 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his yards per route run (YPRR), with the size of the player’s point as his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity, while yards per route run is a measure of one’s efficiency with the routes (and targets) he’s given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

The Colts came out guns blazing with their rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson under center for his first game. I imagine this was partly driven by Indianapolis’ need to keep pace with the Jaguars, but they averaged 15.3 seconds left on the play clock when the clock was running in Week 1 (third in the league). Fortunately, it seems like new head coach Shane Steichen may have brought this philosophy over from Philadelphia, who ranked 6th in pace over expected in 2022. Surprisingly, they were able to unload nearly 70 plays in the game despite a putrid -0.336 EPA per play on offense. This week, Indianapolis will face another division rival in the Houston Texans, who played similarly fast with a quicker pace than expected. While it’s risky to rely on two rookie quarterbacks to put up consistent points, these offenses play fast enough that they should each get plenty of reps (against otherwise subpar defenses) to put the ball in the end zone.
- Action: bet over 40.0 total points
One big question I had entering the season was the pace at which Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense would play. Aaron Rodgers had historically given Packers fans (myself included) headaches each week as he so frequently let the play clock drain down to the waning seconds. Welp, it seems like this is one trait that Rodgers instilled in Love as the Packers left an average of just 5.7 seconds on the play clock. I’m hoping the game script from Sunday’s matchup is what led to this and their 5% no-huddle rate. This week they’ll face a Falcons team that, as you’ll see, really, really likes to run the ball. While they were middle-of-the-pack in terms of pace in Week 1, running the ball will inherently lead to more plays with a running clock. Both defenses, albeit against mediocre competition, demonstrated some signs of life that could lead to them being above-average units. This is a slugfest in the making with points coming at a premium.
- Action: bet under 40.5 total points

Team Pass Rates

Aaron Rodgers’ season is officially over, and the Jets have (currently) deemed Zach Wilson the starting quarterback. That means Robert Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett will likely do whatever they can to hide him as much as possible. On Monday night, the Jets had a -9.5% PROE on the week, the third-lowest rate in the league. While it likely won’t be that low, New York’s -2.7% PROE ranked 17th in the league last year and they have a defense that should keep games close enough so that they don’t have to become pass-heavy. I still expect Garrett Wilson (who was the WR19 in Half PPR last year) to have a decent season, as he commanded a 27.8% target share in Week 1. But, I don’t think all of Rodgers’ friends — Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard — that he brought along to play with him to remain as high in the pecking order had Rodgers stayed in the lineup.
- Action: sell or drop all Jets’ pass catchers not named Garrett Wilson
I’m not sure why anyone thought the Falcons would act any differently this year, but here we are again with them ranking last in PROE at -12.2%. Desmond Ridder’s 18 pass attempts are a career low in the five games he has played, with the previous low being 26 attempts. With this in mind, Falcons players who earn targets are going to show a remarkable target share, but the raw target volume will be an issue. Newly minted Bijan Robinson led the team with six targets, with Mack Hollins (4), Kyle Pitts (3), and Tyler Allgeier (3) next in line. You’ll notice I didn’t mention Drake London, who was targeted just once and put up a goose egg in Week 1. This was always a part of his downside case, it’s just being realized sooner than many expected. Atlanta plays three teams – Green Bay, Detroit, and Jacksonville – that should create environments in which Atlanta may need to pass (not that that’s stopped Arthur Smith before), so I’m remaining (cautiously) optimistic that the pass catchers can still return value. In any case, Allgeier remains a priority add with the work that he got.
- Action: add Tyler Allgeier and hold only Kyle Pitts and Drake London as pass catchers

Running Back Usage

I’m not sure there was any more declarative usage on a running back situation than what happened in Washington, where Brian Robinson dominated the backfield with a 74% running back touch share. Antonio Gibson was still modestly involved in the passing game by running a route on 44% of the Commanders’ dropbacks. But, what makes this so fascinating is that Robinson had the same route rate after failing to eclipse a 30% rate all of last year. Robinson may not be a huge threat in the passing game (only two targets), but he has 20+ opportunities in six of the last eight games he’s played, and that’s elite usage.
- Action: buy Brian Robinson, sell Antonio Gibson
Sunday morning, Rashaad Penny was a surprise healthy scratch for the Eagles, leaving backfield duties to D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott. Gainwell dominated the backfield touches commanding 82% of the running back touches and recording six high-value touches (HVT), which was tied for eighth-most on the week. Swift did run a route on 34% of the team’s dropbacks (Gainwell was at 42%) and earned two targets, so it seems like most of his value may come in the passing game. Unfortunately, Gainwell is now dealing with a rib injury that puts his status in question for Thursday night’s affair against the Vikings, but he’s still a priority waiver add with a long-term view in mind.
- Action: add Kenneth Gainwell, hold Rashaad Penny
Whether you believe in Justin Fields or not, the game script we saw in Chicago on Sunday is one we could see often given the state of their defense. The negative game script gave us a pretty even split in the backfield between Khalil Herbert (9 carries, 4 targets) and Roschon Johnson (5 carries, 7 targets). With those targets and playing on nearly half of the team’s passing down snaps, Johnson amassed a league-leading eight HVTs. Most of this work came in garbage time, so Herbert is still the lead back as he played on 55% of the team’s first-half snaps with Johnson down at a mere 20%. I’m not worried about D’Onta Foreman’s 27% snap share and 23% running back touch share.
- Action: hold Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson

Wide Receiver Usage

I won’t normally talk about the same team in two different sections, but the Colts warrant it because of how many question marks they had entering the season. Early on in the Colts game, the Anthony Richardson to Josh Downs connection was strong as Richardson targeted Downs on three of his seven attempts (of which Downs caught all three). By the end of the game Downs had four more targets, but teammate Michael Pittman finished with a team-leading 11 targets. The lone man out, Alec Pierce, ran a route on 87% of dropbacks (the only Colts player outside of Pittman to be above 80%), but only earned three targets. Pittman (as expected) seems to be the top guy, but Downs is clearly the primary slot receiver, running a route out of the slot on 92% of the snaps while Pierce was split out wide for 93% of his routes. The clear distinction in usage helps us identify when and how they’ll be used, but it also may limit their chance of hitting a weekly ceiling unless Anthony Richardson starts to show some target tendencies. In any case, Downs (one of my favorite pre-draft prospects) deserves a spot on your fantasy roster and the stock is generally rising for Colts pass catchers.
- Action: add Josh Downs, buy Michael Pittman, and hold Alec Pierce
In his first game with the New Orleans Saints, Derek Carr produced one of the most concentrated passing attacks. Similar to the Colts, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas operated at relatively different levels of the field. Olave and his team-leading 10 targets recorded an outstanding 3.5 yards per route run on an 84% routes run rate. Shaheed continued to be the team’s downfield threat with a 16.3-yard average depth of target. Finally, Thomas looked like vintage Michael Thomas, earning targets on four of Carr’s first six attempts. There was no easing Thomas back into action as he ran a route on a team-high 92% of dropbacks. While having three strong players in the rotation may keep their weekly floors lower, the concentration of targets among these three makes the floor higher than others.
- Action: add Rashid Shaheed, get excited about having Chris Olave and Michael Thomas on your fantasy team
I’ve been sitting here trying to come up with a witty opening line, but I just can’t so I’ll say this: the situation in Denver is still…bad. Or, at least, it’s still far from ideal. Even though Russell Wilson completed 79% of his passes, he only averaged 5.2 yards per attempt, and that lack of efficiency trickled down to his receivers. Courtland Sutton’s day was saved by a touchdown, but otherwise had just four catches for 32 yards on five targets. He still ran a route on 89% of dropbacks (team high), but a 16% target share isn’t going to cut it. Marvin Mims, who many (myself included) expected to take advantage of a wounded wide receiver room, ran just 10 total routes on Sunday. With the running backs combining for nearly a 30% target share and the continued lackluster look of the offense, it’s going to be difficult to trust any Broncos wide receiver in a lineup until Jerry Jeudy returns.
- Action: sell Courtland Sutton, hold Jerry Jeudy, drop Marvin Mims

Tight End Usage

With several of the top tight ends out of play this week, Hayden Hurst found his way near the top of the tight end leaderboard for Week 1. He did this as Bryce Young’s primary target, receiving seven targets on Young’s 38 attempts. That amounts to an 18.4% target share, which is solid for a tight end, but Hurst also only ran a route on 64% of the team’s dropbacks (which ranked 26th among tight ends in Week 1). Outside of the elite tight ends, target stability is hard to come by at the position. While there’s a world in which Hurst starts to run more routes given he was targeted the most, I’d be looking elsewhere for more stable tight end production with the potential for a higher ceiling.
- Action: sell Hayden Hurst
There were a lot of eyes on the rookie tight ends this weekend given the hype they came into the year with. The three highest-drafted ones in fantasy — Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Luke Musgrave — all ran a route on at least 74% of the team’s dropbacks and was targeted at least four times. It’s only a one-game sample, but there were just seven tight ends last year who averaged those rates for the full season. None of the teams that these players are on have very stiff competition outside of the team’s number one receiving option, so I’m bullish on the ceiling they have given this early-season usage.
- Action: buy Luke Musgrave, Dalton Kincaid, and Sam LaPorta
There were three players drafted in the top 100 in fantasy that failed to record a single point despite playing all game: the aforementioned Drake London, Tee Higgins, and Dallas Goedert. Goedert is not one of these players that I’m worried about despite not showing up on the chart above because he only got one target. First, Goedert ran a route on 92% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks, which is the third time he’s done so since the start of last season. Furthermore, as you saw above, Philadelphia had a +8.2% PROE in the game against New England. This is up dramatically from their -0.6% rate in 2022, but one of the big questions this offseason was how Philadelphia’s play calling might change with a tougher schedule and this has me encouraged early on. The volume will come for Goedert soon enough.
- Action: hold and start Dallas Goedert