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Players to Buy
Bijan Robinson was disappointing but maintained his role as a receiver with four catches for 27 yards on six targets. Started and saw eight touches in the first half. Saw the first target in the game. Led team with a 22% target share through three games. Also leads the team with 14 catches. Played 81% of the snaps in Week 3, and uptick from his 72% snap share in Week 2.
He’s a sharp buy-low target. The Jaguars (in London) and Houston Texans next up.
RB Travis Etienne was still a workhorse in Week 3 – 19 for 88 rushing, 4 for 50 on five targets, 71% snap share – but Tank Bigsby vultures a TD at the one-yard line. As always, the ETN explosive game is going to happen. Remains a trade-for target.
When Doug Pederson took over play calling in the second half… the plays were as follows.
Etienne rush for 11 yards, Etienne rush for 16 yards, Etienne rush for 5 yards, Penalty, Etienne catch for 17 yards. They came out the gates and scored a TD immediately after halftime. This offense will bounce back.
Rhamondre Stevenson totaled 19 carries for 59 yards and saw four targets (65% snap share). Ran a route on 73% of dropbacks. Third straight game with 18-plus touches. 6th in the NFL in touches (pending MNF).
A workhorse that people may not realize they have.
Although the carry totals were pretty split, Elliott saw a lot of work in the fourth quarter when New England was trying to kill clock and slow the pace of play. No hurry with them aware the other offense would not be scoring anytime soon.
I would view Mondre as a buy-low after a 20-touch game where the box score might suggest he’s losing his job to Zeke. He’s not. This game is also one of the few occasions where the Patriots will have the luxury of “feeding Zeke” when they are protecting a lead. This will not happen very often.
Josh Jacobs remained a bell cow (82% snap share). 17 carries for 62 rushing yards while adding in three grabs for 18 yards on 5 targets. Jacobs is getting all the volume he can handle, but his efficiency and lack of TDs remain to be desired. He has the most red zone touches among RBs without a TD this season.
With the Chargers up next, I’d be doing whatever I can to get my hands on Jacobs. Seems plausible he has been slow out of the gates after missing all of training camp. He also started out last season sluggish through the first three weeks, until he went NUCLEAR in Week 4 en route to leading the NFL in rushing yards. The time is now to strike a deal for Jacobs.
No David Montgomery led to a big usage game for Jahmyr Gibbs. 17 carries for 80 rushing yards on a 60% snap share. Craig Reynolds earned just four for 15 carries (three of which came in the 4th quarter). Zonovan Knight out-carried Reynolds in the first half (2 vs 1) and was the next back up behind Gibbs. Knight is an interesting DFS option for the one-game Thursday night slate, as the No. 2 RB.
Gibbs only had two targets, but there wasn’t a demand given the big lead. Still, I’d view him as buy-low given his separation between the other RBs. Also, he earned four red-zone carries, but just failed to punch it in for a score. On a short week, I don’t expect Montgomery to be ready to return, slating Gibbs for another solid workload. Dan Campbell said his post-game presser that Gibbs will only get better with time and more reps. He also thought Gibbs started to heat up as the game progressed.
So, after a game where Gibbs only scored fewer than 10 fantasy points…he’s a screaming buy with the arrow pointing up.
Jaylen Waddle has been overshadowed by Hill and now every other Dolphin to start the year but he is coming off an 86-yard performance on just four catches in Week 2. He only has four catches in each of the first two games played but has averaged over 80 receiving yards per game. Averaging over 20 yards per reception.
Calvin Ridley posted another disappointing game…3 for 40 on 7 targets despite 108 air yards.
Was Week 1 a mirage? I’m not overly concerned about it because it’s probably just Ridley rubbing off the rust. Again, the dude missed a lot of football the past two years. And after a great Week 1 against arguably the NFL’s worst CB duo…he’s suffered his lumps. Been plagued by drops in the end zone. False starts, mental mistakes. Just two targets in the second half of Week 3’s loss versus the Texans
But over the entire three weeks…
24% target share and 37% air yards share. 5 red-zone targets but just 1 TD. Top-10 in expected fantasy points per game.
And now the Jaguars play “host” to Ridley’s old team in London for Week 4. Can only imagine this will be an emotional game for Ridley as he faces the team that drafted and traded him.
With 10 days between their next game, Brandon Aiyuk is a savvy buy-low target as he presumably should be fine returning from a shoulder injury ahead of Week 4. The move after Aiyuk’s big week one was to buy Samuel. Follow the process and buy Aiyuk after a big Samuel game.
Deshaun Watson had one of his best days throwing as Cleveland Brown. 289 passing yards was his highest total since he was on the Houston Texans. Two passing TDs with 16 more yards on the ground.
Elijah Moore saw a whopping nine targets – catching 100% of them for 49 yards (29% target share). Amari Cooper was also uber efficient with 7 grabs for 116 yards and 1 TD (8 targets, 62% air yards share). Moore and Cooper have clearly been the top two guys this season, with their combined target share vastly exceeding all other Browns (50% combined target share, 62% combined air yards share).
I’d say the Packers could use Christian Watson as another explosive element. He’s missed three games to start the year with a hamstring injury, but remains a buy-low like last week in my estimates. Again, Watson’ biggest fear for drafters was tied to Jordan Love. But three games in, he has earned the faith of his coaches and teammates. Fantasy managers should also buy in. He only threw one TD, but Jayden Reed dropped an easy one. Reed dropped two TDs, with another coming up short right as he was hitting the goal line. Love would eventually score a rushing TDs on a QB scramble.
Every week this offense takes shots downfield that don’t connect because it’s another receiver not-named Watson on the receiving end. Dontayvion Wicks is running the routes that Watson will most likely see and he’s a 5th-round rookie from this year’s draft.
With Doubs’ production very good in two of his three games, he is an entertaining sell high based on his three red-zone TD receptions this season (tied for league-lead with Donald Parham Jr.) and Watson’s return hindering his weekly production.
Both Doubs and Reed have four inside the 10-yard line targets, which suggests Love is fueling his receivers with high-value targets. Bodes extremely well for Watson upon his return.
Brian Robinson Jr. had a down game with the Commanders facing major negative game script. This is definitely his floor, but at least he got 70 rushing yards on 10 carries. B-Rob’s lock on the RB1 job is basically a vice grip with Antonio Gibson constantly fumbling the ball. He lost a fumble after catching a pass and spinning (twice).
Just need to see Robinson earn a bigger role as a receiver so that he can become game script proof. This week is an example of when things go south (zero targets, 37% snap share). Although he did have one catch for 15 yards wiped off due to a penalty. Also got stuffed at the goal line which would have easily salvaged his fantasy outing.
AG played 61% of the snaps with the team playing catch up. He ran 28 routes to Robinson’s 6. Gibson totaled two carries and 3 catches on 5 targets.
Still, I’d say it was a net positive for Robinson managers that Gibson did virtually nothing with his snaps. Eagles up next is tough, but the Bears in Week 5 should be a soft spot for the Commanders to beat up on a bad team. If you sold last week per instructions, you were smart. Now the time to buy on the low presents itself.
Isiah Pacheco continues to look explosive – 15 for 62 and 1 TD – so don’t overact to the final box score. CEH had four carries in the first half and vultured a goal-line TD (happens). Pacheco scored later on one of his 6 red-zone carries. Also saw two red-zone targets and led the backfield in routes run. He’s top-5 in red-zone carries through three games.
After CEH scored, he didn’t touch the ball until Blaine Gabbert was in at QB in the fourth quarter. 11 carries with the backup QB. Buy Pacheco.
Jerick McKinnon won’t turn his three targets into two TDs every single week. Although it should be noted that McKinnon’s schemed touches were likely due to the lack of Kadarius Toney in this matchup.
Rookie running back De’Von Achane – admittedly EXPLODING on my bench in way too many spots I’m afraid – rushed for 203 yards and 4 TDs in Week 3. Raheem Mostert also scored 4 TDs. Both guys were also heavily involved as receivers.
But in the first half alone – before things got out of hand even as the score rested at 35-13 – Achane led the team in carries (10) versus Mostert’s 7. Mostert just had the superior pass-game role with 6 receptions on 6 targets to Achane’s 1.
And I’d still try to sell high (now sell even higher) on Raheem Mostert given his injury history, 31-year-old age and Jeff Wilson Jr. lurking. I’d try to buy Achane (but it’s probably not likely he can be acquired for anything reasonable). Because although it’s a committee right now, nobody will be surprised to see the super explosive rookie supplant the veteran RB.
If I were to buy-low on any Jets player, it would be Breece Hall. The hope is the Jets just pound the ground game to protect Zach Wilson, with Hall leading the charge. Hall had 12 carries for 18 yards (1 catch for 9 yards) in Week 3. 49% snap share. Season-high. 12 carries was also a season-high.
However, Dalvin Cook and even Michael Carter are just eating too much into his workload to give him a shot right now at overcoming the poor efficiency with Zach Wilson under center. The Jets HAVE to make a QB change.
New York wants to run the football, as Robert Saleh suggested they wanted to establish the run in his post-game press conference. Not hopeful they can do it versus the Chiefs in Week 4, but the Broncos are vulnerable in Week 5.
The Jets have hit rock bottom on offense, but they acknowledge the only way they can put up points with Wilson as their QB is through the run game. As Hall gets healthier and the schedule eases up, I’d envision Hall completely supplanting the other two backs entirely. Trade for him now and stash him on your bench from a team that’s struggling with him.
As for Jordan Addison, the arrow continues to point upward. Higher snap share at 71% in Week 3. Ran a route on 80% of dropbacks. With him cresting that 80% rate to go along with a 17% target share, I am very confident his role continues to grow and he overtakes K.J. Osborn in full. Again, this team is 0-3.
Teams that are 0-3 should and will be open to shaking things up.
As for the passing game, the Titans’ secondary is the gift that keeps on giving. Deshaun Watson had one of his best days throwing as Cleveland Brown. 289 passing yards was his highest total since he was on the Houston Texans. Two passing TDs with 16 more yards on the ground.
Elijah Moore saw a whopping nine targets – catching 100% of them for 49 yards (29% target share). Amari Cooper was also uber efficient with 7 grabs for 116 yards and 1 TD (8 targets, 62% air yards share). Moore and Cooper have clearly been the top two guys this season, with their combined target share vastly exceeding all other Browns (50% combined target share, 62% combined air yards share).
Zack Moss with a low-key 30 carries in the OT victory (76% snap share). Also caught a TD. Workhorse until Jonathan Taylor returns. But who knows. Maybe JT still gets traded…setting up Moss to be a workhorse for the long haul. Worst case scenario is he gives you another usable week versus the Rams in Week 4, if and when Taylor reclaims RB1 duties for the Colts.
I’m telling you guys. Rookie WR Rashee Rice. Second in the team with 7 targets, catching five for 59 yards. Fell at the goal line TWICE. Also ran a route on 51% of dropbacks with Patrick Mahomes – a big uptick from the two weeks prior. Snaps also boosted to 51% – although some of those did come in garbage time.
Rice’s constant ability to command targets just three games into his rookie year bodes extremely well for his long-term outlook. Four targets from Mahomes in the first half as well – second behind only Travis Kelce. Skyy Moore was targeted six times (four from Mahomes) for a total of 4 catches for 42 yards.
Rice is second on the team with a 12% target share through three games.
Rookie Marvin Mims was super-efficient again – 3 catches for 73 yards along with a special teams score – on just five targets. Mims doubled Jeudy’s first-half targets (4 vs 2). Mims led all Broncos WRs in receiving yards in the first half (68). He played a grand total of 15 snaps (24% snap share). Same exact snap share as last week. At least he ran more routes (11 vs. 6).
Up to 28% route participation. Ahead of Lil’Jordan Humphrey!
Through three games, Mims has a 9% target share. In yet, he leads the team in receiving yards (195) and air yards (221). Sean Payton, your team is 0-3. Can we maybe have your best player on offense player more than a quarter of the snaps? Enough of the Brandon Johnson nonsense.
In all seriousness, I think we see Mims’ role increase sooner rather than later. The Chicago Bears defense is the perfect get-right spot for the Broncos offense, which honestly hasn’t been the team’s biggest issue. Add or trade for Mims ASAP before his snaps increase and he turns into his final form.
Khalil Herbert & Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
I think the backfield is another one that can be acquired for dirt cheap. Broncos just got DESTROYED on the ground.
Khalil Herbert led the Bears with five carries for 23 yards in the first half but fumbled. Two carries in the second half.
Roschon Johnson had three carries for 22 yards in the first half. Five carries in the second half. Both ended with two receptions.
The fact that the Bears aren’t just deciding on one guy – opting for a split even though they are not running the ball at all – is super frustrating. Herbert played 55% of the snaps versus Johnson’ 45%. Herbert ran 11 routes to Johnson’s 9.
If you want to be hands off all Bears, be my guest. But running back is a dire position where we can’t afford to be super picky. Both are desperation RB3s even in a plus-matchup versus Denver.
Rookie Tank Dell came away with the big day again! Leading the team in targets (24%) for the second straight game, catching 5 balls for 145 yards including a 68-yard TD on 7 targets. 56% air yards share and 136 total air yards. He could have had an even BIGGER game. Tackled near the one-yard line. And anybody that watched could clearly see that C.J. Stroud was looking for Dell early and often.
And although I love Nico Collins – just 2 for 34 in Week 3 – Dell’s boom in production since Noah Brown‘s injury cannot be ignored.
Rico Dowdle earned 7 touches on just 14% of the snaps. Make sure he’s not available on waivers or add him as a throw-in for a trade as a high-end handcuff.
Players to Sell
Derrick Henry aka the Big Dog eats for 80 rushing yards and 1 TD on 25 carries. 3 catches on 4 targets and 15 yards. Saw his snaps climb back up to 71% after a low rate in Week 1. 28 total touches.
No.2 RB Tyjae Spears more than doubled his touches from a week ago, totaling 10 (8 carries, two receptions). Efficient rushing the ball 8 times for 49 rushing yards (37% snap share). The fact that Spears is this involved alongside a healthy Henry just tells you how talented and excited the team is for him. Think Spears’ constant involvement will cause issues for Henry sooner rather than later.
That was the case in Week 3…The Tennessee Titans fell behind 13-3 in the first half and it was lack luster day for Henry. 11 carries for just 20 yards. Zero targets.Spears out-snapped him in the first half – four carries for 6 yards. He also had four catches for 3 yards on 4 targets with the team facing negative game script.
Spears would go onto to out-snap Henry by a grand total of 56% to 38% in Week 3. Henry has now been out-snapped in two of three games by Spears. He has one game with above 50% snap share this season.
If Henry is their best player on offense, why is he not getting the ball more? Are the Titans losing faith? Either way, Spears constant usage is not going away and will hinder Henry for the rest of the season. The offensive line is still horrible. I’d be selling Henry for those that think he has true fantasy RB1 upside. Looks to me like a fantasy RB2 given his current situation.
Deebo Samuel had a MONSTER game. The over on his 4.5 receptions prop was like taking candy from a baby. Although it was a bit closer than the final results indicate because Samuel was targeted a whopping 12 times, “only” caught six for 129 receiving yards and 1 TD. He dominated with a 35% target share and 44% air yards share – which is usually held by Aiyuk.
Following Samuel was tight end George Kittle, who actually led the team with seven receptions, posting 90 yards on 9 targets (26% target share, 43% air yards share).
Through three games, Samuel owns a 33% target share. And as long as he’s healthy, I don’t imagine that goes away. After all, he was the target share leader last season when Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback.
However, from a buy/sell standpoint, there’s never been a better time to sell high on Samuel or Kittle given their extremely boosted production with Aiyuk out. Given both their long injury track records – Samuel also suffered a rib injury on Thursday night and is currently listed as day-to-day – I think it’s at least worth entertaining to see what you can acquire in return for either 49ers stud.
Always bet on the double-digit home dogs….
Arizona came up with the big home upset with James Conner operating as a bell cow per usual – 16 touches for over 100 yards and TD. 64% snap share.
He’s in the top-5 in touches this season and 3rd in rushing yards. But I did think it was slightly noteworthy that we did see a little bit more action from the backups who combined for 7 touches. With SF up next, don’t hate the idea of trading Conner as a “sell high.” Also, his injury track record precedes itself.
D.J. Moore is an obvious sell-high candidate given his back-to-back productive weeks. Seems likely he’s due for some regression, so I’d sell if able. Still, if you can’t get anything worthwhile in return, he will likely just settle into the fantasy WR2 range when it’s all said and done. But as bad as Denver is…a potential matchup versus cornerback Patrick Surtain is not one I want to play Moore in. Through three games, Moore only has a 20% target share averaging five targets per game.
I’d still try to sell high (now sell even higher) on Raheem Mostert given his injury history, 31-year-old age and Jeff Wilson Jr. lurking. I’d try to buy De’Von Achane (but it’s probably not likely he can be acquired for anything reasonable). Although it’s a committee right now, nobody will be surprised to see the super explosive rookie supplant the veteran RB.
Obviously Mostert has a slight lean (he came out of the game with starters while Achane stayed in with Mike White in Week 3) but the reading is on the wall of how this backfield will shake out in a few weeks. Achane also out-touched Mostert in the red zone, 8 to 3.
Christian Kirk came away with the TD score. But just a 15% target share. Five targets in the second half.
Still expected more with Zay Jones out of the lineup that the rest of the guys would pick up the slack.
Considering the Jaguars are coming off back-to-back duds, I’d view Ridley as the buy-low and Kirk as the sell-high. But my most confident transaction is definitely going after ETN, whereas I think the Jaguars WRs will be up and down all year with how many of them are involved in the offense.
It was a make-or-break time for Alexander Mattison. The final stat line looks solid – 20 for 93 yards on the ground, 5 catches for 32 yards on 7 targets. Played 80% of the snaps.
Sell. Sell. Sell.
He dropped a ball in the red zone. Fumbled with a clear recovery by LA but it was overturned because the whistle was blown. Stuffed at the goal line thrice.
Cam Akers is coming for this man’s job. Your window is open. Don’t miss it.
Even in a great positive game script, Dameon Pierce couldn’t get going. 14 for 31 but scored. Devin Singletary had more yards (41) on nine carries.
Pierce caught three balls to Singletary’s two. And when the team was up big in the fourth quarter – seems like prime Pierce grind out time – Singletary was in the game. Pierce is a good player, but his role is capped unless he scores. Still only managed to carve out a 54% snap share versus Singletary’s 39% snap share. Pierce has only 30 more rushing yards than Singletary despite 20 more carries (40 vs. 20).
Can’t imagine Pierce is set for a success versus the Steelers’ fierce defensive line in Week 4.
Jerome Ford has three carries in the 1st half. He finished with 10 carries for 18 yards on a 56% snap share but scored two TDs. He added two catches on three targets while leading the backfield in routes run. The matchup was brutal, so the bad efficiency was to be expected. Currently, he ranks 2nd-worst in the NFL in success rate (32%).
But the involvement from the other backs was puzzling. Pierre Strong got six carries for 27 yards (although the majority in garbage time up 27-3). Kareem Hunt (supposedly on a pitch count) got 5 carries for 13 yards after being signed this week (20% snap share). Hunt also had three targets on just five routes run. Also, I think it’s extremely noteworthy that Ford was not the first Browns player to earn a carry. Or the second. Or the third. Elijah Moore, Hunt and Strong all carried the ball before Ford’s first carry on the second drive.
If this is “RB1” usage for Ford, you must sell high after the two TDs. Schedule sucks and there is a bye week in Week 5. Ravens, Bye Week, 49ers and then Colts. If anything, I’d buy-low on Kareem Hunt. Looked decent in game after no training camp. He’s clearly the RB2 ahead of Strong. Only imagine he gets better as he get acclimated to game speed.
David Njoku panic button…might be time. Four catches for 20 yards. Bye Week approaching. Time to cut bait with his good not great role. Not enough targets. 11% target share through three games.
No David Montgomery led to a big usage game for Jahmyr Gibbs. 17 carries for 80 rushing yards on a 60% snap share. Craig Reynolds earned just four for 15 carries (three of which came in the 4th quarter). Zonovan Knight out-carried Reynolds in the first half (2 vs. 1) and was the next back up behind Gibbs. Knight is an interesting DFS option for the one-game Thursday night slate, as the No. 2 RB.
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