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Here are all the players we’re trading this week. And below let’s take a closer look at a few players to sell this week.
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Players to Sell
Derrick Henry aka the Big Dog eats for 80 rushing yards and 1 TD on 25 carries. Three catches on four targets and 15 yards. Saw his snaps climb back up to 71% after a low rate in Week 1. 28 total touches.
No.2 RB Tyjae Spears more than doubled his touches from a week ago, totaling 10 (8 carries, two receptions). Efficient rushing the ball eight times for 49 rushing yards (37% snap share). The fact that Spears is this involved alongside a healthy Henry just tells you how talented and excited the team is for him. Think Spears’ constant involvement will cause issues for Henry sooner rather than later.
Jahmyr Gibbs is going to have an INCREASED ROLE. The rookie saw just seven carries for 17 yards. But the receiving role DID get a major boost from Week 1. Team-high nine targets (26%) for 7 receptions and 39 yards. 59% route participation and a 48% snap share.
Have to imagine Gibbs’ role will only increase based on the injury to David Montgomery (left game on the cart, 45% snap share). Craig Reynolds is the next guy up on the depth chart (waiver wire target). I don’t think we necessarily get Gibbs in an 80% snap role, so I think Reynolds has some strong streaming appeal. One of Reynold’s carries in Week 2 came at the 6-yard line. After Monty got hurt, Reynolds played on the next two first downplays. Strongly recommend adding him as he will have a decent role with Monty slated to miss several weeks. Galaxy-brain thought. Scottie Montgomery joined the Lions as assistant head coach/running backs in 2023, bringing 17 years of coaching experience throughout the NFL and college ranks. Montgomery comes to Detroit after spending two seasons as the running backs coach with the Indianapolis Colts….
Jonathan Taylor destination? Hmmm. Makes you wonder if they may add someone else. Gibbs is by no means a MUST-SELL, but I’m sure you could potentially get a hefty sum for him for managers expecting him to seize a crazy workload at sub-200 pounds. Reynolds fits the bigger Montgomery size at 216 pounds. I just find it hard to but the narrative that the Lions want to load up Gibbs with in-between-the-tackles carries when is body is not meant for it. Again, they want him to be their Alvin Kamara.
To add insult to injury, Garrett Wilson got hurt towards the end of the game. He finished with just two grabs on eight targets (32% target share). Many were off the mark or uncatchable. A lot of air yards of sadness (49%).
The only way the Jets could move the ball was to Garrett Wilson or dump off Tyler Conklin targets (5 for 50 on six targets). Backfield is impossible to trust because nobody is commanding volume and it’s going to be inefficient.
Best to get out of the Garrett Wilson business fresh of weeks where he has salvaged production with TDs. He won’t do that every week as good as he is.
James Conner workhorse season. 23 carries for 106 yards on a 72% snap share. Not much receiving as the Arizona Cardinals were up big from the start, before collapsing in the second half. His backups had three carries. Given the desolate state of the RB position, Conner might be the actual best target on this roster in trade. Only hesitance is the schedule gets rougher the next two games between Dallas and SF.
Dameon Pierce continues to struggle. Through two games, he ranks dead last among all RBs in rushing EPA (-12.3). Snaps aren’t there either to buoy his production. Just a 45% snap share (same as last week).
The bad/injured offensive line is giving him no help. 15 carries for 31 yards in Week 2. Zero for 4 in the red zone. And again, no role in the receiving game is a BIG concern. Just two catches on 3 targets. Ran fewer routes than Devin Singletary (36% snap share).
C.J. Stroud threw the ball 47 times for 384 yards. The receiving usage doesn’t seem like it’s coming anytime soon…
And the schedule just doesn’t suggest things will get better. Steelers, Falcons and Saints aren’t ringing endorsements of layup matchups for an RB with a sub-50% snap share and a limited receiving role. You probably just have to hold Pierce because you won’t get much for him. I don’t think he’s going to lose his starting job, but his role is just not good enough for fantasy. Unless you can get him for dirt cheap, I’m staying away.
Denver’s backfield was more of a committee again in Week 2. Perine was slightly more involved as a receiver, whereas Javonte Williams saw the bulk of rushing work – 12 for 44 yards. Perine out-snapped Williams (50% vs. 45%).
And Denver just HAD to get rookie Jaleel McLaughlin the TD on his lone carry.
Two weeks in, consider me not a fan of the Denver offense. What a mess.
Drake London got back in good graces with the Falcons passing more in a more contested contest. Drew seven targets for six catches and 67 yards with a TD. Got first target of the game and more designed looks. Looked really good despite coverage from Jaire Alexander. Team-high 24% target share. Mack Hollins was the team’s air yards leader, converting his downfield looks into three catches for 60 yards. However, not everybody flourished. After London bombed last week, it was time for Kyle Pitts to disappoint. 2 catches for 15 yards. Two end-zone targets that came up short. Five total targets was fewer than No. 2 tight end Jonnu Smith, who was actually running legitimate routes (not just designed behind the LOS passes etc.). That was despite Pitts running a route on 88% of dropbacks (same as London). He can’t run more routes. And Smith played a lot more in Week 2 (67% vs 50%) than he did in Week 1. Through two weeks, the only trustable asset in the Falcons offense is Bijan Robinson. Literally. So nasty.
Every other is going to be volatile week to week. Either you set it and forget it (take your lumps). Or cash out after a strong performance. Good matchups are coming up in the next few weeks with Detroit and Jacksonville. So easy case to sell. Note that Pitts and London have fewer targets than Robinson and Hollins through two games.
The advice I gave last week was to hold London/Pitts. Or even buy low on London. That looks like a W after he had a solid week. But Pitts, I think the ship has sailed. Not much has changed from last year that is working in his favor.
It was all Brian Robinson in Week 2. 18 carries for 87 yards and two TDs. But his snaps decreased dramatically to 52% with the Commanders in total comeback mode.
Antonio Gibson played 48% of the snaps but finished with just two carries (5 touches). Gibby saw slightly more receiving work (3 vs 2 targets) and ran more routes.
Even so, Robinson crushed his two catches for 42 yards. Continues to take advantage of his opportunities. However, the split snaps to suggest that Robinson could be game scripted out and that could leave his fantasy value for dead. Case in point, Robinson had 5 carries for 13 yards in the first half with Washington chasing points.
With Buffalo and the Eagles up next, I am afraid we may have reached a peak point with Robinson. He’s a sell for me.
Mike Evans with 6-171-1 does it again on eight targets (25% target share). Catches another bomb versus a horrible defense. The Chicago Bears D is that bad. Chris Godwin also saw eight targets, but no scores. Mayfield missed him in the end zone. 5 for 58 to end the day. Think Evans’ reign of terror versus defenses comes to an end versus the Eagles strong perimeter cornerbacks. He remains a sell high as we anxiously await this Buccaneers’ 2-0 Super Bowl run to end. Godwin is the sharp buy low target. Steady as they come with five catches for 50-plus yards on seven targets per game in his first two contests.
Hard to start anywhere but with Eagles running back D’Andre Swift, who had a career game on Thursday night football. He rushed for 175 yards on 28 carries, while adding in three catches for six yards on three targets. His 75% snap share tied for the third-highest snap share of his career. The 28 carries were the second-most he has ever had in his career. Only twice (including Thursday night) has Swift carried the ball 17-plus times over 42 games played. This usage was insane and was obviously fueled by the Kenneth Gainwell inactive status. Gainwell started Week 1, saw solid usage and was productive. But it was not nearly to the extent we saw Swift get deployed versus the Vikings, where the planets aligned for him in a short week. He barely played in Week 1 (two touches), so he had fresh legs. Boston Scott was second in command – 13% snap share, five touches – but he left the game due to a concussion. Rashaad Penny played a few drives with Swift catching his breath on the sideline, but still only played nine snaps with four touches.
All in all, this was the upside case for Swift in the Eagles offense. Although, part of running behind an elite OL that creates space like none other – 82 of Swift’s yards came BEFORE contact (47%) – comes with the caveat that Jalen Hurts is going to limit RB TD production with the unstoppable “tush push” at the goal line. But that’s being nitpicky. The real question is what to do with Swift now after his UNBELEIVABLE game.
For me it’s the perfect sell high situation. As I stated at the top, this type of usage was unlike anything we have ever seen from Swift or for an Eagles RB. Miles Sanders saw a 70-percent snap share once last season. Just twice in 2021 under head coach Nick Sirianni. I’m in the camp of believing that this type of workload is not in the Eagles’ long-term plan for Swift and that when Gainwell returns, Swift’s snaps will reduce dramatically. Now, I think Swift’s performance has changed the idea that Gainwell will dominate snaps like he did in Week 1, with Swift probably the 1A back. But unless he’s completely missing games, this is the ceiling spot for Swift. And that’s why he’s such a strong sell high after a massive game on prime time.
Recall that the Eagles head coach stated a day before the game that Swift’s role will vary from game to game. “He’ll be in that role sometimes where he carries the load for the game, and he’ll be in the role sometimes like he was in last game,”
So of course – me tuckering in fear as I failed to rank Swift highly enough in Week 2 – this was the spot to unleash Swift and have him carry the load. Short week. Gainwell out. Swift was fresh. And the Vikings defense was just begging for the Eagles to run. So, they did. But with a mini bye coming up, Gainwell should be back in the fold. And that puts Swift’s weekly role in ambiguity. We always knew that Swift was going to have his fair share of massive games in 2023. Even through the ups and downs in Detroit, he had massive games. But the usage was always suspect – as was Swift’s durability when his workload increased. And I don’t think that’s going to go away in Philadelphia. Keep in mind what’s coming up for the Eagles. Buccaneers. Commanders. Rams. Jets. Three of the four boast extremely strong defensive lines, nothing like Minnesota.
Sell high and if anything, buy super low on Gainwell, who might get dropped amid the Swift hype.
Raheem Mostert was the Dolphins RB1 for the second straight game, playing 73% of the snaps. Totaled 19 touches and scored. Denver’s defense has been decently stingy versus the run this year, so the matchup isn’t ideal for Week 3. And Week 2 was the perfect storm for Mostert, with his snaps and touches bloated by an injury to Salvon Ahmed. I am still in the camp of stashing rookie De’Von Achane, with Mostert’s 31-year-old age and extensive injury history looming.
Cam Akers is dead to Sean McVay (as he is to me for that pointless field goal as time expired when I had SF – 7) Bruh. Chances are he is going to be traded anyway, so just excited to see this nonsense end.
Anyway, Kyren Williams was RB1, 10 targets, six catches for 48 yards and one receiving TD. 14 carries for 52 yards. Williams played 95% of the snaps. No other Rams RB had a carry. Ronnie Rivers played 5% of the snaps. Through two games, only Tony Pollard has more red zone carries than Williams.
Still, I am hesitant to fully buy into Williams being a consistent fantasy RB1. As I wrote last week, we have seen McVay throw RBs away like garbage. Remember Darrell Henderson? I also have long-term concerns with Williams based on the Rams OL, his size and recent injury track record. Think the best move is to cash out for maximum ROI.
Travis Kelce came back and immediately was the Chiefs’ No. 1 target. Nine targets but caught just four for 26 yards. Was not in a full-time role (64% snap share) coming off his knee injury.
But Kelce he scored – perks of being Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite red zone target. Speaking of targets, Mahomes targeted 12 different players…not ideal for fantasy football purposes. Keep in mind through two weeks with no Kelce and a limited Kelce…nobody has more than 13% target share.
Nobody else saw more than 5 (Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson). Skyy Moore led with 70 receiving yards and scored. The majority of yards came on a 54-catch where he was wide open in the 4th quarter. Toney caught all of his five targets. Fun twist, also fumble for a 12-yard loss. He leads the team in targets through two weeks (10).
Still, Moore’s lack of targets remains concerning. 11% target rate per route run through two games. Woof. Rookie Rashee Rice has the same number of targets and target share (9%) on just 18 routes run (39% target rate per route run). Rice had three targets in Week 2 (one called back for penalty).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ran the most routes as he tends to do, but a lot of it’s just cardio.
For me, the move is to SELL Skyy Moore. Talked about that in Week 2’s version of this article because he’s just not getting ANY reliable or consistent target share. He scored a big TD in Week 2. Use it as leverage to ship him off. KC plays the Chicago Bears Week 3. No doubt one of these WRs is going to have a big game. Good luck guessing which one. I’ll do my best to find the answer.
The usage for the Chargers WRs was status quo – Joshua Palmer as WR3, Quentin Johnston buried and played less than Derius Davis – but the tight end usage is noteworthy. Gerald Everett, we have a problem. Donald Parham Jr. played MORE snaps (50% vs 41%) than Everett and ran more routes. YHTSI. Drop Everett if you have not already. I’m dying inside.
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