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Let’s take a look at players to buy and sell this week. And be sure to check out our weekly trade value chart with updated values for all players.
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Players to Buy
Nick Chubb was a standout performer. Rushed for 106 yards despite a long of just 17 rushing yards.
18 for 106 versus Jerome Ford‘s 15 for 36. Same offensive line. Chubb is just that good. And he did it on a 49% snap share. And better yet, Chubb got more receiving work totaling 22 touches with four targets. Buy high before people realize Chubb is poised for his best season ever.
Travis Etienne showcased his versatility with 23 touches, 18 carries for 77 yards, 1 26-yard rushing TD, and 5 receptions for 27 yards. Bell cow status with an 80% snap share. Beyond elite route participation – 85%. Ran a route on 30 of 35 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks with no JaMycal Hasty.
Next up KC Chiefs. Might be too late to get him on your roster if you didn’t have him already.
Rhamondre Stevenson earned 6 targets as the team’s leader in receiving yards with Bourne (64 receiving yards).
But dear lord they kept forcing passes to Ezekiel Elliott (5 catches for 12 yards on 7 targets) even after he fumbled. JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Demario Douglas each also had 7 targets on 27 routes run (46%).
The only issue is Kayshon Boutte actually played ahead of BOTH of those players with four targets of his own (69% snap share). The issue with the rookie was he failed to get both his feet down on a couple of sideline targets, typical of a first year WR. Still, his route participation in first game (74%) suggests the coaches want him out there, so stash Boutte in deeper formats.
Both RBs were horrible on the ground as the Eagles DL overmatched Pats OL. The Patriots also couldn’t run effectively being down 16-0 from the get-go.
So given it all, Stevenson coming out with 18 touches and nearly 90 yards with a 72% snap share is a win. Because during the game it didn’t seem like that at all.
And like the difference between a Stevenson target (10.6 ypt) and Zeke target (2.0 ypt) …has me convinced these Elliott targets are not here for the long run. Stevenson doubled his routes. No way Elliott will continue to be targeted at a near 40% per route run basis.
Buy low on Stevenson amid the Elliott interference with a JUICY matchup on deck versus a Miami Dolphins horrible run defense.
Week 1 for the Lions. Veteran free agent signing David Montgomery: 77% snap share, 21 touches. 12th overall rookie RB Jamyr Gibbs: 27% snap share, 9 touches.
As for Jahmyr Gibbs, it was an up-and-down debut. He flashed the explosiveness and speed that we fell in love with during the draft process, but his overall usage wasn’t there for fantasy. He earned 37% of the team’s expected fantasy value to David Montgomery‘s 63%. However, had he scored – which he easily should have done but he tripped over himself – fantasy managers wouldn’t be complaining. I was honestly not discouraged by his debut as the mainstream seems to be. Again, as steady as Montgomery is, he’s not a true difference-maker. Gibbs totaled 60 yards on 9 touches/19 snaps. 6.6 yards per touch, 3.2 yards per snap. If Montgomery had not scored, then would have posted nearly identical fantasy point totals. Gibbs totaled seven points in half-PPR. 0.37 fantasy points per snap (tied with Josh Jacobs last year). Go trade for him now.
The Bengals struggled to find their rhythm, potentially due to Joe Burrow‘s return from injury and adverse weather conditions. The guy threw for 82 yards. Just burn the tape. Especially performance by Tee Higgins. Especially Tee Higgins. Higgins is the first player since Amari Cooper to post 0 catches on 8 targets…. (2015). Cooper went 6-120-2 the following week.
Considering Higgins saw plenty of air yards…151 (64%) he is literally the definition of a BUY-LOW WR in the air yards model coming off a 95% snap share. This Ravens banged-up secondary is in for a rude awakening in Week 2.
Deebo Samuel finished Week 1 with 5 catches for 55 yards on 7 targets. Although Brandon Aiyuk stole the show, Samuel still had a solid game. 25% target share. 32% air yards share. 97% route participation. Running the most routes on the 49ers. I think Samuel is a savvy buy-low with all the shine on Aiyuk.
Rachaad White‘s stats weren’t impressive, but he had a solid workload. 17 for 39 rushing, 2 for 10 receiving yards. 19 touches are still solid in his season debut with a whopping 79% snap share. 55% route participation. No. 2 RB Sean Tucker had 7 and was equally inefficient. Buccaneers have OL issues. But I was very shocked at White’s lack of targets (2). Something to monitor. I’d buy low with the Bears’ horrible defense coming up next. 6th on the week among RBs in snap share and 11th in touches.
The biggest surprise though for the Bears in Week 2? D.J. Moore. TWO TARGETS. Despite a 92% snap share and 94% route participation. Might have been the Jaire Alexander treatment but you trade for this guy and don’t target him? Man. Must expect a squeaky wheel game coming soon. Works in Chicago’s favor they have a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary in Week 2, Moore has played many times in the past. Last time he faced them, Moore blew up for 117 yards on 6 catches and 1 TD on 10 targets.
Buy low on D.J. Moore.
Tight end Logan Thomas was the No. 1 target (8 targets) posting a 4 for 43 stat line, followed by second-year WR Jahan Dotson (7 targets) who went 5 for 40 receiving yards. Dotson led the team in routes run (95% route participation) and air yards share (30%).
LT picked up the elite tight-end role we were hoping for, running a route on 32 of 42 dropbacks (76%). Also played 82% of the offensive snaps.
Curtis Samuel led the team in receiving yards (54) with five catches on a 65% snap rate.
Terry McLaurin played a full complement of snaps, but he was not featured nor efficient. Playing time was not limited by his turf toe injury, but he had just two catches for 31 yards on four targets. Brutal matchup in Week 2 where he will likely draw coverage from Patrick Surtain II. Woof. Sell McLaurin and buy Dotson after a quiet Week 1. WR1 Alpha usage.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each saw 10 targets (33% target share). Smith (97%) ran two more routes than Brown (92%). Smith scored and Brown got more yardage and more air yards (59%).
But Dallas Goedert‘s lack of targets shouldn’t raise concerns. Now if you remember, something weird like this happened last year for the Eagles, when DeVonta Smith goose-egged. Do not overact.
Given the current landscape of tight end, I’d look to acquire DG on the cheap for a manager potentially panicked. After the game head coach Nick Siranni said, We can’t go a game without getting Dallas Goedert the football. He’s too good of a playmaker.”
What he said about Smith after Week 1 last year…” he has to touch the ball. We must. “Thursday night bounce back versus the Vikings? Lock it in.
Goedert played 92% of the snaps and ran a route on 36 of 38 Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks. The targets will come.
Deshaun Watson‘s rushing ability kept him valuable in fantasy, despite his struggles in passing. 5 for 45 rushing and 1 touchdown on the ground.
He missed some key throws, but his running capability allowed him to finish as a fantasy QB1.
Players to Sell
Running back Derrick Henry rushed for 63 yards on 15 carries, Tyjae Spears totaled 27 yards on just three carries.
It’s interesting because Spears was also more involved as a receiver of 4 targets with double the routes, but Henry was at least efficient after the catch 2 for 56 on 3 targets. But the rookie out-snapped Henry 54% vs 48% overall. The last time Henry saw a sub-50% snap share, was in Week 2 41-7 loss last season to the Bills.
I don’t suggest this means Henry’s carry totals are going away, but Spears threatening Henry as receiver and a rusher in any capacity is going to hurt the Big Dog’s bottom-line fantasy value. And the way that Henry performs – needs more and more carries to destroy teams in second halves of games – any rushes he is not getting is a major red flag.
I don’t think Spears is taking over the backfield. But his presence is going to hurt Henry, whose fantasy value was already in limbo behind one of the league’s worst OLs. That was also the last time Henry saw fewer than 16 carries in a game. Spears’ overall touch volume has room to grow because he only touched the ball four times with a heavy snap rate. Flexed out a lot as a receiver.
WR Calvin Ridley appeared as an alpha receiver with 11 targets (34%), 8 receptions for 101 yards, and 1 wide open TD. 98% route participation. Stud. Crushed basically the first half with 7 catches for 92 yards on 8 targets. Ridley caught his last pass with 11:20 remaining in the third quarter. Another was called back on a penalty. But he may have also been wide open for another TD later in the game that Lawrence didn’t see him on. If you drafted Ridley, you feel great. But anytime you are sitting on something this highly valued, you can sell it for a king’s ransom. Because Ridley won’t face the no-named Colts secondary every week that might be the worst in the NFL between the guys he lined up versus on Sunday.
The Seahawks had an underwhelming offensive performance, with DK Metcalf‘s TD as the highlight.
Metcalf operated as the true alpha, seizing a 21% target share and a whopping 62% air yards share. He Jaxon Smith-Njgba and Kenneth Walker all saw 5 targets. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each also ran a route on 93% of dropbacks. JSN was behind at 66% playing just 59% of snaps. His target rate per route run is very strong (26%) and bolds well for him to vacuum up targets even while running fewer routes. He out-targeted Lockett, who caught two passes for ten yards.
Seattle also lost both starting offensive tackles, between Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Very problematic for an offense after a bad Week 1.
They scored on the first three drives and then missed an FG. It went ALL downhill after that. 4 straight punts. 2-9 on third downs. 180 yards of offense to the Rams’ 426. The Rams DOMINATED the time of possession. Nearly doubled 40 vs. 20 mins. Game over.
If things get off the rails for Geno – and he turns back into a pumpkin – might be wise to sell shares of Metcalf off the TD score.
Desmond Ridder‘s as QB1 raises questions as he had more catches than WR Drake London, who played on 90% of the snaps in Week 1. London had one target and zero receptions (dropped pass). The offense was reluctant to let Ridder “let it loose.” With three timeouts inside two minutes during the first half, Atlanta seemed in no hurry to try and move the ball aggressively downfield. By the conservative play calling, Smith would rather run a draw on 3rd and 10, than throw a slant or post to pick up the first down.
Things might not get better soon either, with the Packers and stud cornerback, Jaire Alexander, up next.
Tight end Kyle Pitts also was hardly used but ended up with more yards than London (2 catches for 44 yards). He was basically only targeted downfield, earning a week-high 83% air yards share. Again, this is a bit noisy because Ridder only threw for 63 air yards as Bijan was the leading receiver. 75 of Ridder’s yards came after the catch. Still, this is hardly super encouraging because Pitts wasn’t playing a full-time role. 62% snap share was just barely ahead of Jonnu Smith. However, he was mostly running routes (77% route participation) which is very good for a tight end.
Pitts and London are far from buy-lows at this point. They are holds for now. If I had to buy low on one of them, it would be London. He is still seeing alpha usage as a receiver, which is not so true for Pitts. Would be happy to trade a bench asset for London based on his talent alone. Totally fine sitting on London’s talent if I do not have to start him.
Dameon Pierce struggled as expected with 11 carries for 38 yards and 2 catches for 9 yards. Houston did as they did during the preseason, where Pierce would play a few drives and then get replaced by Devin Singletary. Mike Boone was specifically used during the 2-minute drill.
That resulted in a 45% snap share for Pierce. Not great. Still think he’s over-reliant on being a game script-dependent back that thrives most when the game is close. Again, I was firmly against drafting Pierce because I knew this Week 1 matchup would be tough. Especially with all the offensive line injuries the Texans are dealing with. Got worse with OT George Fant knocked out with a shoulder injury. The Colts’ should be a closer matchup in Week 2, but the Jaguars couldn’t move the ball on them much through the ground game either – outside a big run from Travis Etienne. Without the 26-yard TD, he and Tank Bigsby combined for 3.0 yards per carry.
If you want Pierce, maybe you should wait one more week. Then again, Steelers, Falcons and Saints aren’t ringing endorsements of layup matchups for an RB with a sub-50% snap share and a limited receiving role.
Miles Sanders displayed bell-cow potential with 18 carries for 72 yards and active involvement in the passing game. He only earned a 57% snap share, but he was FED with 22 touches and 24 total opportunities in the backfield. His four catches for 26 on 6 targets were the most receiving usage he has seen 2020. Considering how badly the perception of the Panthers is coming out of this game, Sanders initially looked like a buy for me. I don’t want to be slow to hop on bell cow usage when Carolina is forced to rely heavily on their RBs due to a lack of overall playmakers. RB2 Chuba Hubbard chipped in 11 touches of his own posting a total of 69 yards. However, Hubbard was very much involved early on, and saw some red zone usage over Sanders. Was stuffed on 4th and 1. But also worked a lot on third downs. Carolina also seemed very “in” on getting Laviska Shenault touches out of the backfield during the opening drive. Sanders has 8 carries for 28 yards in the first half and zero targets. Most of his targets came in total comeback mode. So, if you have Sanders, I’d try to sell high. The TD equity in this offense isn’t great and I am skeptical his target share (19%) stays this high without 3rd down work. He only ran a route on 45% of dropbacks.
Sean Payton will fix everything. Sure. Okay. A home loss to the Raiders’ dumpster franchise in Week 1. Not a great start. Russell Wilson was okay, tossing 2 TDs with an average 5.2 yards per attempt. A lot of RB targets. Too much if you ask me.
Starting running back Javonte Williams saw heavy usage with 13 carries for 52 yards (45% snap share). His 6 targets led the team (19% target share). 5 catches. No. 2 RB Samaje Perine finished 4 for 4 as receiver for 37 yards (13% target share) and led the backfield in routes. Added 8 carries for 41 yards while also playing 45% of the snaps. A sick…50/50 committee in a bad offense. Woof. Get away from the Broncos backfield.
No sign of Jaleel McLaughlin (8% snap share). PAYTON YOU LIAR. Oh, wait, 1 catch for -7 yards. Cool? Cool.
Minnesota’s loss to the Buccaneers seemed fitting. They were the most overrated team last year and got straight up served in Week 1. Alexander Mattison had an underwhelming performance with 11 carries for 34 yards but salvaged it with a receiving TD.
Out-touched Ty Chandler 14 to 4 with a 73% snap share. Still Chandler looked explosive on his 18-yard catch and run. Mattison totaled just 10 yards on 4 targets.
Sell high if you can. Gets the Eagles run defense Thursday night. You don’t want that.
Especially with the Vikings dealing with multiple offensive line injuries. After center Garrett Bradbury came out Week 1 with a back injury and was later ruled out, star left tackle Christian Darrisaw also left the game. Not ideal for a short week. The Buccaneers’ defense terrorized Kirk Cousins. Going to be the same story in Week 2 versus Philly.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. posted good stats – 8 catches, 11 targets, 97 yards and 28% target share – but a large portion came from a 39-yard-long catch-and-run TD, making him a sell-high candidate in my estimation. The Anthony Richardson lumps as a passer is going to make Pittman inconsistent. Case in point, he had zero catches in the first half. One target.
Early in the game, it was the rookie Josh Downs connection with Richardson. 3 for 30 on 4 targets in the first half.
WR Mike Evans had a boom game with 6 receptions for 66 yards and 1 28-yard TD on 10 targets. Sell high on these boom-or-bust WRs after they boom. He won’t see a 50% air yards share every single week.
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