The dust has finally settled on the Dolphins’ offensive explosion / Taylor Swift takeover of Week 3 and you can get back to making deals. Some would argue early in the season is the best time since you can take advantage of some market inefficiencies. Luckily, FantasyPros has you covered. Not only is there the ‘Who Should I Trade?’ tool where you can get instant feedback but every week in this space, we’ll dig even deeper into players that should be moved. There will be the classic one-for-one deals but also deals where multiple pieces would equate to one piece which will be indicated with a ‘-plus’ next to the player name. Without further ado, below is the first batch of trades to offer.
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The Trade: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)-plus for Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
The Reasoning: Before fantasy drafts this summer, this scenario would have been unheard of. Burrow was coming off a 2022 season that saw him throw for over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns for his first top-five fantasy finish. Trevor Lawrence also had a good season – over 4,100 yards and 25 touchdowns – but wasn’t expected to surpass Burrow when it comes to fantasy stats. Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram are fine compliments for a quarterback but they’re not on the same level as Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins.
But just three weeks into the season, it’s fair to say that Lawrence’s is trending up while Joe Burrow is more of a question mark. The most obvious reason is Burrow’s calf injury he suffered just a few weeks before the season started. While not catastrophic, it’s certainly slowed him down. Through three games this season, Burrow is averaging just 188 passing yards a game and has thrown just two touchdowns, well below his averages from the last two seasons. Lawrence, on the other hand, is duplicating his stats from last year, averaging 245 yards per game and has three touchdowns so far. He could have had more if not for his receivers’ drops, too.
Something is holding Burrow back. It’s holding back his receivers too with Tee Higgins, a top-20 fantasy receiver each of the last two years, having two duds out of three while Ja’Marr Chase has been productive but not quite the top-five pick he was in drafts this summer.
I would rather ride with the more stable if lower floor, in Lawrence than hope Burrow can shake off the injury and return to normal in time for his fantasy managers to make a playoff run.
The Trade: Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) for Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
The Reasoning: If you started Raheem Mostert in Week 3 or any week really, chances are your fantasy team is doing well. Taken (relatively) late in drafts, Mostert has been fantasy’s top running back and was a top-five fantasy running back even before his game-winning performance this last Sunday. He’s averaging six yards per carry on 41 carries so far and has scored six times on the ground. He’s usually limited in the receiving game but his 10 receptions so far this season is almost 1/3 of his total all of last season. In short, being the starting running back on the highest-scoring offense this season has its perks.
But for all the positives of Mostert’s season so far, it remains to be seen if he can keep it up. He’s currently on pace for over 200 carries which would be a career-high set at the ripe old age of 31. The same goes for his receptions totals. The 10 receptions he’s recorded so far have taken his career total to a whopping 77. Then there’s the issue of a younger, faster, possibly better option waiting on the beach. Rookie De’Von Achane managed to outshine Mostert in Week 3 despite the latter scoring four times and totaling 140 yards.
Instead of Mostert, I’d consider the tried-and-true Joe Mixon to lead my fantasy backfield. Mixon is no stranger to a heavy workload – totaling 200-plus carries in four seasons – and is on pace to do it again, averaging 15 carries per game. And like Mostert, Mixon is also seeing better numbers in the passing game and is currently on pace for the second-most of his career.
But unlike Mostert, Mixon doesn’t have competition to worry about. The three other running backs on the Cincinnati roster have just six attempts between them. For the season. If you want a bell-cow, Mixon is it.
The Trade: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) for DJ Moore (WR – CHI)-plus
The Reasoning: Courtland Sutton has seemingly always been on the cusp of a breakout season. Besides his sophomore season – where Sutton totaled 1,112 yards and six touchdowns – he hasn’t cleared 900 yards or scored more than four times. But this season looked different. Through three games, Sutton has 17 receptions for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Throughout the entire season, those numbers would extrapolate to nearly 100 receptions, 1,017 yards, and 10-plus touchdowns. But Sutton has some serious competition for targets in Denver where Jerry Jeudy missed the first game of the season but just turned in a five receptions, 81-yard performance in Week 3. Also waiting in the wings is rookie receiver Marvin Mims who, despite having less than half the receptions Sutton does (17-7), has more receiving yards (195-189). So while Sutton has gotten off to a good start, it’s going to be tough to keep it going while fighting off teammates for targets.
DJ Moore is not on the most appealing fantasy team. The Bears are a hot mess including third-year quarterback Justin Fields, but DJ Moore keeps on trucking. Through three games, Moore has almost as many yards as Sutton (195-170) on just 11 receptions. That would be due to Moore averaging 15.5 yards per reception so far which is more than a yard higher than his career average. And unlike Sutton, the quality of pass catchers behind him on the depth chart won’t be challenging him for targets.
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