Week 1 is almost in the books, with only the Monday Night Football game left on the docket. Now that teams have played, there’s information to dissect and react to. The key word in the previous sentence was “react,” meaning not to overreact or entirely ignore what happened in the first meaningful games of the year. This piece will guide readers through some of the most notable risers, fallers and a situation to monitor.
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Takeaways
Risers
Defenses Facing the Commanders
The Commanders escaped Week 1 with a victory against the lowly Cardinals by the skin of their teeth. Sam Howell took six sacks, had one interception and lost a fumble when scrambling. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Howell averaged a time to throw of 3.26 seconds in the preseason. That would have ranked as the second-slowest time to throw among 31 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks last year. Furthermore, it would have been sandwiched between noted sack-takers Justin Fields (3.45 seconds) and Lamar Jackson (3.12 seconds). Defenses facing Howell should pile up sacks until he speeds up his delivery, and there’s no guarantee he will.
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL)
According to the nfelo app, the Falcons had the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) last year. In addition, per Rotoviz’s pace app, they rushed at an NFL-high 56% clip in neutral game scripts last year. The Falcons were in a neutral game script until they took a two-touchdown lead with just under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and attempted only 18 passes against the Panthers.
However, instead of overloading Bijan Robinson with opportunities, the talented rookie had 10 rushes and six targets. Meanwhile, Allgeier had 15 rushes and three targets. Allgeier rumbled for 75 yards and two touchdowns, adding three receptions for 19 yards as a cherry on top. As a result, Allgeier is more than a handcuff. He’s a useful flex, namely when Atlanta’s favored or slight underdogs.
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Flowers is Baltimore’s No. 1 wide receiver. Period.
The rookie was a full-time player and dominated target share (45.5%), targets per route run (35.7%) and produced results, reeling in nine receptions for 78 receiving yards. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken even awarded the explosive rookie wideout two rush attempts (one in the red zone) for nine yards. Mark Andrews will eventually return and command targets. Still, Flowers’s arrow is pointing upward.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
Ridley lived up to his preseason hype. He had a 34.3% target share, eight receptions, 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Simply, Ridley is a top-10 fantasy wideout who’s closer to the top five than the fringe of the top 10.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI)
Gainwell dominated Philadelphia’s backfield usage. Rashaad Penny was made inactive despite being healthy, and D’Andre Swift had one rush for three yards and one reception on two targets for zero yards.
Gainwell started the game, was targeted on the first play, handled their first run and closed the contest. In all, he had 14 carries, 54 rushing yards, four targets, four receptions and 20 receiving yards. The third-year running back didn’t light the world on fire with his touches. So, it could be a fluid situation. Nevertheless, he’s the most desirable running back to roster from the Eagles.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
With all due respect to Tutu Atwell‘s stellar effort, producing six receptions for 119 receiving yards on eight targets, Nacua stole the show. According to PFF’s Nathan Jahnke, Van Jefferson, Atwell and Nacua tied for the team lead with 35 routes.
However, Nacua was a target hog, earning 15. The rookie had 10 receptions for 119 receiving yards. D-Bro has been beating the drum for Nacua the entire offseason, but he’s not alone in praising Nacua. Matt Harmon from Yahoo Sports and Reception Perception also favorably graded Nacua’s college route success.
It’s a mistake to dismiss this as a one-week fluke. Nacua is a priority addition in fantasy leagues.
Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC)
The Chargers lost a thrilling heartbreaker. Nevertheless, their running game was brilliant. Austin Ekeler and Kelley each had 16 rush attempts. Ekeler paced the rushing attack with 117 yards and one touchdown.
Still, Kelley’s 91 yards and a touchdown were nothing to sneeze at. Kelley established himself as an elite handcuff with potential standalone value if Kellen Moore continues to lean heavily on the running game. In a back-and-forth game, the Chargers attempted 33 passes and 35 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Fallers
Kansas City Chiefs Skill Players
Yikes. From a fantasy perspective, it was a nightmarish start for Kansas City’s offense. The backfield was a dreaded three-headed committee. Per PFF, Clyde Edwards-Helaire played 14 offensive snaps, Jerick McKinnon played 20 and Isiah Pacheco played 31. The split renders Pacheco only a bench stash and unstartable.
Discussing the running backs was burying the lede, though. Kansas City’s wide receivers faceplanted. The wideouts were deployed in a full-blown rotation. Patrick Mahomes dropped back 45 times, and the routes were divvied up as 33 to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 29 to Skyy Moore, 18 to Richie James, 16 to Justin Watson, 12 to Rashee Rice, 11 to Kadarius Toney and five to Justyn Ross. All of them were targeted, with Rice and Toney tying for the position lead with five. However, MVS was first in receiving yards (48), and Watson was second (45).
Moore had only three targets, zero receptions and zero receiving yards. The second-year wideout had a 20-plus-yard reception wiped away by a penalty. He failed to secure one ball thrown behind him and another errant ball that sailed high. PFF didn’t credit him with drops since both passes were off the mark, but Moore’s inability to help Mahomes by making difficult plays was disheartening.
Toney had the worst day of the bunch.
Rice had the most promising day in the group, hauling in three receptions for 29 yards and a touchdown on five targets and 12 routes. PFF didn’t credit him with a drop, but it looked like he had one in real-time, which he atoned for by scoring a receiving touchdown later in the drive.
Gamers in 12-team leagues or larger with medium-sized benches can stash Moore to see if he plays better when Travis Kelce returns or with a full week of preparation if Kelce is out again. Toney’s performance and lack of playing time are grounds for cutting him in anything but deep leagues with large benches. Rice is an intriguing player to add, and Ross is also a forward-thinking stash in deeper leagues or keeper formats.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
Gibson handled only three of 26 rush attempts by non-quarterbacks for the Commanders, had only one target for a 10-yard reception and had only one opportunity (i.e., a rush or target) and one return on a kickoff after fumbling at the 8:38 mark in the second quarter. Brian Robinson dominated the backfield touches, caught a touchdown in the red zone and played significantly more snaps than Gibson.
Moreover, Chris Rodriguez had a carry on the opening drive before Gibson touched the ball. Gamers can cut Gibson.
Atlanta’s Non-RBs
Sadly, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and any of Atlanta’s ancillary pass-catching options can’t be started in fantasy leagues. While the run-heavy approach discussed in Allgeier’s write-up is a plus for him and Robinson, it destroys the present value for London and Pitts. Additionally, Desmond Ridder had a pathetic 6.4 yards per pass attempt on his 18 attempts. Gamers rostering London and Pitts should root for a quick hook and for Taylor Heinicke to be inserted as the starter.
Situation to Monitor
Tampa Bay’s Backfield
Rachaad White had the bell-cow role he was advertised to have.
Unfortunately, White had only 2.3 yards per carry on 17 rushes for 39 yards. White’s two receptions for 10 yards on two targets were also underwhelming. Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds were inefficient as well.
Nonetheless, White could lose his grip on the bell-cow role if he doesn’t improve his efficiency quickly. Furthermore, Tampa Bay won on the road today. A lead running back can have value for the Bucs if Tampa Bay isn’t always in a trailing game script.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.