Fantasy Football Week 2 Injury Notes

This isn’t always the case, but we have some pretty firm injury news this week. We have a few game time decisions, but for the most part we already know the statuses of most of the questionable players for this week. Here are some notes based on the above players and their statuses.

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC) – OUT

Comments suggest high ankle sprain, and injury report progression suggests relatively mild severity. Average timeline = 2-3 weeks, so in most cases we would see Ekeler back Week 3-4. These do tend to impact RB performance for ~6 weeks post-injury and carry an elevated re-injury risk during that time.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Joshua Kelley: With Ekeler all but ruled out, Kelley should assume the starting job. Last week, Kelley played 48% of the snaps with 16 rushing attempts for 91 yards and a score. Among 55 qualifying running backs, he finished 22nd in yards after contact per attempt and 32nd in elusive rating. He also had a 25% route run per team dropback rate. Tennessee is a brutal run defense to deal with. Last week, they ranked 12th in stuff rate with the 11th-lowest missed tackles allowed rate. In Week 1, 68% of Kelley’s runs were on gap plays. Last week, the Titans allowed 2.0 yards per carry to gap runs. In 2022, they permitted only 3.97 yards per carry to gap runs (sixth-lowest). Fire up Kelley as an RB2.
– Derek Brown

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) – OUT

Video suggested a moderate severity hamstring strain. Average timeline = 2-3 weeks. Data favors most likely return Week 4-5 with low performance impact but 20% re-injury risk for the first 6 weeks back.
– Deepak Chona, MD

George Pickens: Pickens started the 2023 season off on a disappointing note. Even with Diontae Johnson falling victim to injury, Pickens couldn’t assume the top spot in this passing attack. He was second on the team with a 15.2% target share and tied with Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin with a 16.0% first-read share. The Browns deployed zone coverage on 60-64% of their corner’s snaps in Week 1, which is bad news for Pickens’ Week 2 outlook. Last season, among 83 qualifying receivers, Pickens was 66th in receiving grade and 58th in YPRR against zone coverage. Pickens will run about 88% of his routes against Denzel Ward (50% catch rate, 57.3 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (16.7% catch rate, 39.6 passer rating). Pickens is a WR4.

Allen Robinson: Last week, Robinson drew a 17.4% target share and 18.2% air yard share while running about 86% of his routes from the slot. Robinson had an 18% TPRR and 1.42 YPRR. He’ll see Greg Newsome (66.7% catch rate, 82.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day. Robinson doesn’t look like total dust, but he’s hard to trust as anything more than a WR5/desperation flex.
– Derek Brown

Brandin Cooks (WR – DAL) – Unlikely to Play

TBD. Data favors sitting Week 2. MCL average = 2-3 weeks, so it would be surprising to see Cooks out there right now (data says 20% chance). Most WRs would not see performance dip upon return, which for Cooks projects to be Week 3-4.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Brandin Cooks: Cooks hasn’t practiced all week (knee). The team has listed him as questionable. Cooks is a must-sit player. Last week, with the Cowboys’ defense smothering the Giants, Cooks finished with four targets and 22 receiving yards. This game sets up similarly for Dallas. If the defense crushes Zach Wilson, Dallas likely doesn’t have to throw much in Week 2. Dallas doesn’t need Cooks, especially in a full snap capacity, to beat the brakes off the Jets. 

Michael Gallup: Gallup only saw two targets last week. This game sets up very similarly to last week’s affair. Dallas likely won’t be pushed by the Jets offense to air it out. Sit Gallup. He’ll line up against D.J. Reed (56.6% catch rates and 75.7 passer rating allowed in 2022) on about 53% of his routes this week.
– Derek Brown

Christian Watson (WR – GB) – Unlikely to Play

Lean towards sitting Week 2. Good news here is that his practice progression gives Watson a 60% chance of returning Week 3. That will of course be updated and more accurate following next week’s practice progression. Upon return, mild performance impact but moderate re-injury risk is expected.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Christian Watson: Watson missed Wednesday & Thursday’s practices before getting in a “limited session” on Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. Much like with Aaron Jones this feels like the Packers getting cute with the injury designations. I consider Watson much closer to doubtful and likely out again this week. If he is active, I’d expect him to be on a pitch count. If he’s active I’m sitting him.

Jayden Reed: Reed is a middling flex play. He wasn’t even a full-time player in Week 1, playing 53% of the snaps with a 74% route participation clip. Add on top that the Packers were a run-heavy affair, and the picture gets uglier. Reed’s 18.5% target share looks palatable until you realize that it amounted to only five targets. The same can be said for his 3.00 yards per route run, but that star dims when you see that he only ran 16 routes. The best thing Reed has going for him is his matchup with Dee Alford in the slot this week. Last week, Reed ran from the slot on 60% of his routes. Last year, Alford allowed a 68.9% catch rate and 105.5 passer rating in coverage as the Falcons allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers.

Romeo Doubs: Doubs was also not a full-time player in Week 1. It’s debatable whether that was the plan all along for his usage to open to the season or if it was the result of him dealing with a hamstring injury during the week. Doubs played only 48% of the snaps with an 18.5% target share (five targets). He secured two touchdowns on top of his 1.53 yards per route run (26 receiving yards). If you’re picking one Packers wide receiver to trust in lineups in Week 2, it’s Reed and not Doubs. Doubs will run about 80% of his routes on the perimeter against A.J. Terrell and Tre Flowers, who combined to allow only a 50% catch rate and 39 receiving yards in Week 1. Doubs is a low-end flex play.
– Derek Brown

Aaron Jones (RB – GB) – Unlikely to Play

Comments suggest a mild severity hamstring strain, but not practicing all week makes Jones likely to miss Week 2. Pending progress next week, lean towards return Week 3. Upon return, upper tier RBs like Jones tend to see only a mild performance hit, but do have 10-15% elevated re-injury risk.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Aaron Jones: Jones hasn’t practiced all week. I doubt he plays this Sunday. I’ll keep it short and sweet about Jones. Depending on your lineup options, if he plays, I would treat him like a full go and play him. I doubt that happens, but it has to be said.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon is shaping up as the Packers lead back for Week 2. Last week, he played 48% of the snaps with 15 touches for a disappointing 36 total yards. Dillon has been a back on the decline for a few years now. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped every year he has been in the NFL. If you think that’s ugly, then don’t look at his breakaway run rates. Over the past two seasons, he has ranked ninth and fifth worst in this metric (minimum 100 rushing attempts). Luckily for Dillon, last week, Atlanta had the seventh-lowest stuff rate while allowing the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. If Jones is out, fire up Dillon as an RB2. If Jones is active, Dillon remains an RB3/4.
– Derek Brown

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

TBD. Lean towards playing, with data rating this a 75% chance as well. These don’t tend to drop pass catching TE’s performance, but do carry re-injury risks as high as 15% at this time point post-injury.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Mark Andrews: Andrews practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before logging a full practice on Friday. The expectation is he will suit up this week. With that said, treat Andrews as a full go. If he plays, you play him in fantasy. Cincinnati allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most receptions to tight ends last year. They were 18th in fantasy points allowed to the position, which can be traced to the fact that they gave up only three touchdowns, but the other indicators are there to point to this as an above-average matchup for Andrews. In 2020 and 2021, under Lou Anarumo’s watch, Cincinnati allowed the seventh and sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
– Derek Brown

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

TBD. Lean slightly towards playing Week 2. Very limited information available here, but late-week additions to the injury report are relatively concerning based on timing alone. Comments, however, suggest this is relatively low severity.
– Deepak Chona, MD

C.J. Stroud: Stroud didn’t have the same fast start as Richardson. He was 21st in passing grade, 18th in adjusted completion rate, and had the 11th-lowest yards per attempt in Week 1. However, Stroud gets an easier test in Week 2 against the Colts. Last week, Indy permitted the ninth-highest yards per attempt, seventh-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. Stroud is a QB2 that could post QB1 numbers this week. Stroud was added to the injury report late in the week with a right shoulder injury. He’s been listed as questionable. If he’s out, downgrade the entire offense. Make sure you have a backup plan in Superflex leagues.
– Derek Brown

Amari Cooper (WR – CLE)

Amari Cooper popped up on the injury report late in the week with a groin injury. This is troubling for two reasons. 1. Late additions to the injury report are never ideal and indicate a healthy player was injured during the week, as opposed to an injured player who is getting better. 2. The Cleveland Browns play on Monday Night Football, meaning fantasy managers likely won’t know Cooper’s status when the Sunday afternoon games kick off. Fantasy managers with other options might want to play it safe and replace Cooper in their lineups on Sunday. For managers who want to wait until Monday, see if this guy is available in your league:

Elijah Moore: Last week Moore tied Cooper for the team lead in target share (24.1%) while also handling a 20.3% air yard share. Moore was second on the team with a 22.7% first-read share. Moore will match up with Chandon Sullivan (78.9% catch rate and 107.8 passer rating allowed last season) on about 66% of his routes from the slot as a WR3/4. Moore and Cooper were the only wide receivers to see red zone targets in Week 1.

Other Monday emergency replacement options for Cooper: Rashid Shaheed, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Allen Robinson II
– Mike Maher

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Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

Lean towards playing Week 2. These do tend to cause noticeable performance dips up to ~15% for WRs of Nacua’s style this soon after injury. Re-aggravation rates are relatively low but if they occur would be likely to knock him out for an average of 2 weeks.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Puka Nacua: My man. The myth. The legend. Puka Nacua. He played an altered Cooper Kupp role in Week 1. Nacua soaked up a 39.5% target share and 42.9% first-read target share while playing 70% of his snaps on the perimeter. Nacua was seventh in receiving grade and fifth in yards per route run. Deny his talent all you want. Trust me, I heard everyone clapping back about him all offseason, but now Puka has shown you what he can do. You don’t earn this type of volume without being a VERY talented player. Nacua is a WR2/3 that will run about 70% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (58.5% catch rate and 89.8 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Deommodore Lenoir (67.3% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating allowed last year). Nacua has been listed as questionable (oblique), but he’s expected to play. 

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

Given Kelce’s personal durability history in combination with average bone bruise timelines of ~2 weeks, our algorithm rates him a 75% chance of playing. Production impact projects to be relatively low. While re-aggravation can occur, those rates are also relatively low for a player of his profile.

Travis Kelce: Kelce has been limited in practice all week and listed as questionable, but it looks like he’ll play. With that said, I anticipate he’ll be a full go. The hip thrusts above confirm it. I won’t bore you with meaningless Kelce stats supporting his greatness. If he plays, you play him. Jacksonville allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, the third-highest yards per reception, and the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year.

Fantasy Football Weekend Injury Updates

Unlikely to Play:
? Aaron Jones
? Christian Watson
? Brandin Cooks
? Wan'Dale Robinson

Expected to Play:
✅ DeAndre Hopkins
✅ Puka Nacua

OUT:
❌ Austin Ekeler
❌ Jakobi Meyers
❌ Diontae Johnson
❌ Greg Dulcich (IR) pic.twitter.com/3Ot0iVBRh4

— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) September 17, 2023

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – TEN)

DeAndre Hopkins is reportedly set to be active today, but both Deepak Chona and Derek Brown are pessimistic about both his availability and his effectiveness. Even if Hopkins is indeed active today, you’re probably better off looking for other options for your lineups.
– Mike Maher

Expected to be active. While Hopkins has a history of not practicing during the week but still playing that Sunday, data suggests that outcome is relatively unlikely here. His injury mechanism by video appeared to be a high ankle, and combining that with his age and practice participation rates him a 70% chance of sitting. Lean towards return Week 3-4.
– Deepak Chona

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins popped up on the injury report this week with an ankle injury he picked up last Sunday. He hasn’t practiced all week, which makes me consider him more doubtful, but the team has listed him as questionable. In Week 1, he garnered a 38.2% target share and 46.3% air yard share, but he was held in check as Marshon Lattimore followed him on 42% of his routes, holding him to 24 receiving yards in shadow coverage. Hopkins finished the day with seven grabs and 65 receiving yards. If Hopkins can go, he’ll run about 65% of his routes against J.C. Jackson and Michael Davis, who combined to allow a 55.6% catch rate, 189 receiving yards, and three scores last week. Hopkins is a WR2/3 if he plays, but I do lean that he will miss this game.

Darren Waller (TE – NYG)

Likely playing Week 2. Minimal performance impact is expected, but Waller’s history of 3 significant soft tissue injuries (including 2 hamstrings), age > 30, and now reported hamstring tightness makes him a very high risk player for the duration of the season. Attractive in daily fantasy formats, but would consider moving away from Waller in season-long formats if he has a big game soon.
– Deepak Chona, MD

Darren Waller: Waller’s Week 1 numbers are noisy. He entered the week nursing a hamstring issue. Then the Giants got blown out impressively by Dallas, so we have no clue if his usage numbers would have been different in a close contest. Waller had a 52% route per team dropback rate with a 16.7% target share and 30.5% air yard share. He was targeted on 22% of his routes with 1.57 YPRR. Outside of the route run number, the rest of his metrics are perfectly fine. He exited Week 1 ranked tenth in receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run. Assuming health isn’t an issue this week, Waller is in a bounce-back smash spot. Arizona allowed the most fantasy points, third-most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends last year. In Week 1, they allowed 12.0 yards per reception to tight ends, which would have been the fifth-highest last season.