In a few weeks, I’ll have completely forgotten what Sundays were like before football season.
There’s a reason for that: Sundays in the spring and summer are mostly forgettable.
Not that those non-football Sundays are bad. Leisurely morning coffee is good. Big Sunday breakfasts are good. Long walks with my wife and dog through the big park down the street are good. Minimal thinking and low blood pressure … those are good things, too.
That said, I never feel more alive than when my beloved Green Bay Packers are facing a critical 3rd-and-4 down 6 points in the fourth quarter and my blood pressure is 180/110.
As much as I like leisurely coffee, I also enjoy sipping coffee at 6 a.m. on a fall Sunday while I have 19 tabs open on my browser as I toggle between league-hosting sites, online sportsbooks, the FantasyPros news desk, my weekly rankings, livestreams and whatever else is jockeying for my attention.
By December, I’ll be looking forward to those stress-free Sundays again. I love football, but I also love having my feet up on an ottoman and letting myself go brain-dead.
But, hey, December is a long way off. The adrenaline is flowing these days, and I’ve never been more ready for those stressful Sundays.
Welcome back to my weekly rankings/tiers article. Feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 1 Tiers & Rankings
QUARTERBACKS
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You’re not benching Josh Allen, but the Monday-night matchup doesn’t set up well for him. The Jets’ pass defense ranked sixth in DVOA last year and allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. In two games against the Jets last season, Allen completed 34-of-61 passes (55.7%) for 352 yards (5.8 YPA), with one touchdown and two interceptions. Allen still posted decent fantasy totals against the Jets because he totaled 133 rushing yards and three TD runs in those games But if Allen doesn’t rack up points with his legs on Monday night, he might leave his investors disappointed.
I’m enthusiastic about Anthony Richardson, but the rookie’s passing numbers aren’t going to be pretty in the early weeks of the season as he tries to decipher NFL defenses for the first time. Maybe his rushing numbers carry the day in Week 1, but I prefer that the rushing numbers be gravy rather than the entree.
No one gets excited about starting Derek Carr, but the 10th-year veteran is in a good spot in his Saints debut. He faces a run-funnel Titans defense that’s tough against the run but soft against the pass. RB Alvin Kamara is suspended, and rookie RB Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Saints have every incentive to attack the Titans through the air, so drink a boozy hurricane for courage and plug Carr into your starting lineup.
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RUNNING BACKS
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I am not the world’s biggest J.K. Dobbins enthusiast, but Dobbins could feast in Week 1. He gets a scrumptious matchup against the Texans’ perennially flimsy run defense in a game that has the Ravens favored by 10 points at home. A soft run defense and the likelihood of a positive game script? Count me in. Heck, I might throw Dobbins’ backup, Gus Edwards, into a DFS lineup. The Ravens are going to run all over the Texans.
We saw heavy carry volume for Cam Akers toward the end of the 2022 regular season. He led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks and ranked RB4 in half-point PPR scoring over that stretch. The Rams open the 2023 season on the road vs. against the Seahawks, who gave up the fourth-most fantasy points and the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs last season. With star WR Cooper Kupp out, the Rams are likely to strive for a balanced offense. Akers isn’t a sexy Week 1 option, but he could be an effective one.
Raheem Mostert could be a nice Week 1 play. Jeff Wilson is on IR, and rookie De’Von Achane is coming off a shoulder injury. Mostert is intimately familiar with Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s system — they were together in San Francisco for several years when McDaniel was the 49ers’ running game coordinator — and the veteran running back gets a nice matchup against a Chargers defense that gave up the second-most rushing yards and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs in 2022.
It’s good news/bad news for Jamaal Williams. With Alvin Kamara suspended and Kendre Miller banged up, Williams could get a smorgasbord of carries against the Titans. But Tennessee was vicious against the run last season, holding running backs to 62.8 rushing yards per game and 3,4 yards per carry. Williams is a viable RB2 or flex option but not someone I’d be excited about starting this week.
As bullish as I am on Dameon Pierce, his Week 1 setup is a nightmare. The Texans are 10-point road dogs against the Ravens, and Houston’s offensive line is riddled with injuries. If you have other reasonable options, you might want to leave Pierce on your bench.
Commanders RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson are both viable options this week in a home game against the lowly Cardinals. Arizona gave up 101 catches, 810 receiving yards and six TD catches to RBs last year, so Gibson could do damage as a pass catcher.
Messy backfields I’d prefer to avoid for at least a week if possible: Eagles, Jets, Colts.
WIDE RECEIVERS
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It should go without saying that Drake London should be in your starting lineup, but I saw London go shockingly late in some home-league drafts, so maybe it’s worth making a case for him here. At the tender age of 21, London had a 29.4% target share, was targeted on 32.4% of his pass routes and averaged 2.07 yards per route run. Those are exciting numbers for any receiver, let alone a rookie receiver who wasn’t of legal drinking age when he walked into his first NFL training camp. London calling, to the underworld. (Sorry … couldn’t resist a Clash reference.)
How is the WR position so injury-ravaged before the regular season has even begun? Christian Watson would have been a Tier 2 guy for me this week, but he’s dealing with a hamstring injury and falls to Tier 3. Packers WR Romeo Doubs is also dealing with a hammy problem, so Green Bay’s rookie slot man, Jayden Reed, has become an intriguing flex-type option.
With Terry McLaurin battling turf toe and the Commanders hosting the defensively challenged Cardinals, a Jahan Dotson breakout season might start with a bang in Week 1.
Look, I know Courtland Sutton hurt a lot of you last year, but you should probably play him in Week 1. Jerry Jeudy is most likely going to be out. The Broncos’ No. 2 receiver, Marvin Mims, will be making his NFL debut. And the Broncos have a tasty home matchup against a Raiders pass defense that ranked 30th in DVOA a year ago. Don’t hold a grudge; get Sutton into your lineup.
In the quarterback section, I expressed my reservations about starting Anthony Richardson this week. I don’t really want to start WR Michael Pittman either. What if the Colts are ridiculously run-heavy under head coach Shane Steichen? When Steichen was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator two years ago in Jalen Hurts‘ first season as a starting quarterback, the Eagles ran the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps from Week 6 on. The Colts might throw the ball on less than half of their offensive snaps, and Richardson is probably destined to be an inefficient passer since he was only a one-year college starter. Fade Pittman this week.
I drafted Gabe Davis in multiple leagues, but I’m not starting him anywhere this week. The Jets have a formidable trio of cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II. Davis is a big-play guy, and I doubt the Jets’ pass rush will give Bills QB Josh Allen enough time to do business downfield. That Jets pass defense is terrifying, man.
Rams rookie Puka Nacua is getting some buzz, but I wouldn’t want to start him this week even with Cooper Kupp out. The Rams receiver I am willing to start is Van Jefferson, a veteran more likely to be on the same page with Matthew Stafford in Week 1 than Nacua would be.
I wanted to like Adam Thielen this week, thinking the grizzled veteran would be a nice security blanket for rookie QB Bryce Young. But Thielen has an ankle issue. With D.J. Chark ailing as well, rookie Jonathan Mingo could be a desperation option if you’re one of the fantasy managers being hit especially hard with WR injuries this week.
TIGHT ENDS
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We’re just kicking off the regular season, and the TE position is already a tire fire. Travis Kelce is hurt. Mark Andrews is banged up. George Kittle is banged up. Darren Waller has a rough Week 1 matchup against a Dallas defense that smothered tight ends last season. Good grief.
With Cooper Kupp out, how does Tyler Higbee not get a boatload of targets this week? (That’s a rhetorical question; Higbee is getting a boatload of targets this week.)
Hayden Hurst could be a sneaky-good TE play this week. Hurst has said a tight end can be a rookie quarterback’s best friend. With his WR corps decimated by injuries, Bryce Young could use a best friend.
Luke Musgrave, not Dalton Kincaid, is my top-ranked rookie TE for Week 1. It’s nothing against Kincaid, although I dislike his matchup against the Jets. But Musgrave could be an important weapon for Packers QB Jordan Love with Green Bay’s top two receivers nursing hamstring injuries, and Musgrave was outstanding in training camp and the preseason. Musgrave was on the field for nearly every snap Love played in the preseason — and Love played far more preseason snaps than most of the league’s starting QBs. Musgrave also ran a route on more than 80% of Love’s preseason dropbacks. That’s important: Musgrave was running routes, not blocking. It’s a sign that Musgrave could be prominently involved in the Green Bay passing game.
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