Fantasy Football Outlook: Tyler Lockett, D.J. Chark, DK Metcalf, Hayden Hurst

Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Snap Counts

To prepare you for Week 4…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

Along with snap counts…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Takeaways

My Week 3 NFL rapid reactions…?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

Fantasy Football Outlook

Seattle Seahawks

Sell Tyler Lockett, Buy DK Metcalf

I think I might be looking to move Tyler Lockett. Giants play a lot of man coverage, so this week doesn’t profile as a massive Lockett game. Then there’s the bye week. And one would figure we get an expanded role for Jaxon Smith-Njigba post the bye week. Because through three weeks, Lockett has done pretty much nothing outside of two TDs in Week 2.

He leads the team with a 21% target share but has just 103 receiving yards. DK Metcalf is by far lapping Lockett with actual production posting 234 yards through three games and averaging five catches. Team-high 44% air yards share.

Add D.J. Chark, Drop Hayden Hurst

Everybody on the Panthers ate except my Week 3 breakout…Jonathan Mingo. 3 for 21 before exiting with a concussion. 6 targets on just 18 routes – 33% target rate. The process. The process. The process.

Still, not surprised to see the overall offense function better without Bryce Young at QB.

Will need to look more closely at snaps and routes before I can decide if any of these are worth chasing on waivers.

Because the Minnesota Vikings are up next….and their defense is the gift that keeps on giving. D.J. Chark saw the most targets (11, 19% target share) and played 94% of the snaps. Ran a route on 97% of dropbacks. 4 catches for 86 yards and 1 TD. He also caught fewer passes than Terrace Marshall. All of Marshall’s 8 targets came in the 2^nd half, who ran a route on 66% of dropbacks.

Chark is the add off waivers this week.

Hayden Hurst‘s role was awful. 62% route participation. 61% snap rate. 3 targets on 58 Dalton dropbacks. No thanks. Drop him.

-Andrew Erickson