Hello and welcome to the Week 3 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here is the full article.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pass Rates
- We shouldn’t have expected anything different, but the Chiefs are slinging it once again with a 14.7% PROE so far this season. For reference, Kansas City was at 11.2% last year, so it’s clear they have no issues with their receiving corps being up 3.5%. Unfortunately, that still hasn’t led to fantasy success for Chiefs wide receivers as Patrick Mahomes has been spreading the ball around and creating the least concentrated passing attack. While Kadarius Toney has only run a route on 29% of the team’s dropbacks, he has a 13% target share ad exceptional 0.38 targets per route run rate. Conversely, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has run a route on a team-high 80% of dropbacks with a 14.6-yard aDOT, but only has five targets to show for it. My favorite of the group (right now, at least), might be Skyy Moore as he’s getting a nice mix of route participation (69%) and target share (13.7%). Mahomes and Moore also connected on a nice back-shoulder throw for a touchdown on Sunday, demonstrating Mahomes’ trust in the 2nd-year receiver.
- Action: buy Skyy Moore, hold Kadarius Toney
- I was shocked to see Detroit with the second-lowest PROE number at -8.5% through two weeks, given the success they’ve had passing the ball. The Lions rank sixth in passing success rate at 53.3% and fifth in explosive pass rate at 8.2%. However, this bodes well for Jahmyr Gibbs this week, who could see a boost to his role as David Montgomery is currently day-to-day with a thigh injury. The Lions also signed Zonovan Knight this week and gave Craig Reynolds 10 snaps following Montgomery’s injury Sunday (compared to 17 for Gibbs), suggesting they still don’t want to give Gibbs a full workload. Against a Falcons defense that allows explosive rushes at the 8th-highest rate, I expect a healthy dose of work for Detroit’s running backs.
- Action: hold Jahmyr Gibbs (for dear life), add Craig Reynolds in deeper leagues
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