Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Raheem Mostert: The above sample size is small. There’s no denying it, but the backfield split for the Dolphins last week got messy, with the team completing the second quarter up 35-13. This is why I looked up the first-quarter usage for these backs when the score was closer (14-7). What we find here is that Mostert had three rushing attempts (Achane four) while handling nearly all of the passing down work. Mostert lost the red zone battle as Achane got both red zone carries (Mostert zero). We’ll see how this split works out in Week 4 in what projects to be a more competitive game. Overall, last week, Mostert played 51% of the snaps with 20 touches and 142 total yards. Mostert ranks fifth in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. This week, Miami could lean on Achane even more. Buffalo’s run defense has been exploitable, allowing the second-highest explosive run rate and the highest yards after contact per attempt. Their Achilles heel is defending gap runs, which has not been Mostert’s bread and butter (Mostert 59% zone). Buffalo has held rushers to the 14th-lowest yards per carry on zone runs. Week 4 Positional Value: RB2
Roschon Johnson: Johnson has also seen a mild bump in his playing with 42-45% of the snaps over the last two weeks while averaging eight touches and 45.5 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, Johnson is 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. With Johnson losing the route and red zone battle to Herbert, it’s tough to trust him in lineups on limited volume. The matchup is juicy, with Denver giving up the tenth-highest yards per carry to zone (4.58) in Weeks 1-2 (Johnson 52.8% zone). Week 4 Positional Value: RB4
Jerome Ford: Ford’s usage in Week 4 was encouraging despite his lackluster stat line. His two touchdowns saved his day. Ford played 56% of the snaps with 12 touches and 51 total yards. He also led the backfield with a 48.6% route run per team dropback rate. Ford also handled all of the work inside the five-yard line last week. Among qualifying backs, Ford ranks 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Baltimore will lead to more uphill sledding for Ford in Week 4. The Ravens have surrendered the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Ford 58.5% gap). Week 4 Positional Value: RB3
Joe Burrow: Excluding his rough Week 1 outing, we find that Burrow has been playing commendably, with all things considered. He is 11th in passing grade, but the focus because of his health has been to get the ball out quickly on short area routes. He has the third-lowest time to throw, the second-lowest aDOT, and the third-lowest yards per attempt. The Titans’ secondary has not been playing good football, but they could keep Burrow in check this week. Tennessee has given up the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. The problem for Burrow is that they are not allowing much after the catch. The Titans have permitted the tenth-lowest YAC per reception and missed tackles. They have the fifth-lowest percentage of passing yards after catch allowed. Burrow will have to dink and dunk all day to move the Bengals’ offense against this pass-funnel defense. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB1
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio