Let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 3, to prepare for success in Week 4. The Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets. Here is the full Fantasy Forecast for Week 4. Below we’ll dive into a few notable players.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 4 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 3’s action…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Snap Counts

To prepare you for Week 4…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

Along with snap counts…

Week 3 Fantasy Football Takeaways

My Week 3 NFL rapid reactions…?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 25, 2023

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Outlook

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sell Pat Freiermuth, Sell Najee Harris

The Steelers’ offense got back on track in Week 3, when they had the luxury of not facing an elite-level defense between the 49ers or Browns.

The backfield was a 50/50 effort with Najee Harris totaling a 50% snap share versus Jaylen Warren‘s 45% snap share. Harris saw the boatload of carries (19) but mustered just 65 scoreless yards. He rushed for two 1^st downs. Warren went 8 for 29 as a rusher but added three catches for 23 yards on four targets while running the most routes out of the backfield. Harris failed to catch his lone target.

Three straight weeks where Warren has been the preferred receiver.

It’s been a disastrous start for Harris to start the year, and it’s hard to justify buying low on him if Week 3 is an example of him taking advantage of a plus-matchup.

He’s a plodding RB on a questionable offense that has no role as a receiver. I’d pray he looks better versus the Texans and then ship him off.

As for the receiver, George Pickens rolled over as WR1, earning a 22% target share. Didn’t score, but caught 4 of 6 targets for 75 yards. Calvin Austin hit paydirt early on a big passing play from Kenny Pickett. He ended Week 3 with 6 targets. Only two catches.

Pat Freiermuth bounced back with a TD catch on one of his four targets. The lack of overall targets in the offense has been shockingly low with just a 9% target share through three games. If you have multiple tight ends with one being Pat F, I’d try and sell high.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy Rachaad White, Sell Mike Evans

Rachaad White carried the ball 14 times for 38 rushing yards while playing a season-high 91% snap share. Sean Tucker played 4 snaps (9%) and saw two carries. Even after White lost a fumble, it’s crystal clear that there is zero controversy about who the RB1 in Tampa Bay is. It was a tough day rushing for White against an elite Eagles front, but that was somewhat to be expected. He salvaged some fantasy production with three catches for 24 yards on 3 targets.

White’s workload remains elite and savvy fantasy managers would be wise to buy low.

But the same can’t be said for the Buccaneers’ total offense. Baker Mayfield threw his first interception of the season, and the passing game wasn’t great versus Philadelphia. Mike Evans scored late on 1 of his 10 targets, while Chris Godwin was a disappointment. Just 3 for 32 on 5 targets.

Still, you must sell Evans. He has caught 3 TDs through three straight games. 32% target share, 50% air yards share.

But Evans caught 3 TDs over his first three games last season as well. He wouldn’t score again until Week 17 of the 2022 season. Sell high. The Saints and cornerback Marshon Lattimore are up next, followed by a bye week.

-Andrew Erickson